Azplaya said:
So I have a newb question for the group here. I had Boston +16.5, and last night about halfway through the 4th, I found Cleveland live at -5 and took it. They were up by 3 at the time and I thought Lebron was going to take over down the stretch and give me a huge middle opportunity. Obviously we all know what happened and today I feel like I took an easy winner and lit it on fire. Trying not to be results oriented here so what do you all think about that live play to open up an 11 point middle opportunity? Is that type of play +EV in the long run?
You're going to get lots of incorrect answers.
It's not a question that at the time you made the live wager, Boston +16.5 was a great bet. So the question you have to ask yourself is; "Does Cleveland -5 have value?" If the answer is "no", do not try to middle. If the answer is "I'm not sure", do not try to middle. You 100% know that the ticket you already have has tons of value. If Cavs -5 does not have value, you've diluted your equity.