Hello PreGamers,
I’m going to try and post daily breakdowns (less so on weekends) pertaining to NBA games in the forum, in order to promote collaboration, idea sharing, and most importantly a vigorous discussion pertaining to NBA. Feel free to offer opinions, analysis, insights, commentary, or if you need a place to vent about something, feel free to do it in the thread as well. It could be your very own place for handicapping-therapy ;) Hopefully we can have a lot of fun doing it over the course of the season. As always, best of luck (in gambling and more importantly in LIFE) to each and every one of you!
NBA Breakdowns
Friday, 10/28:
CLE @ TOR +2.5
Both teams are coming off very easy blowout wins on opening nights at home, as Cavs dispatched the Knicks by almost 30, while the Raptors beat the Reggie Jackson-less Pistons by almost 20. This is a ‘revenge’ game of sorts for the Raptors, who lost to Cleveland in 6 games during last year’s Conference Finals. What is interesting is that the Cavs were listed between -5.5 and -6.5 in the three road games they played in that series. During the season, Cavaliers were in a similar range to today’s line, listed around -3 / -2.5. Obviously, there’s additional factors (travel, fatigue, injuries, motivation, etc.) involved during the regular season vs. the post-season, where Cleveland was fully healthy and fully motivated. The question becomes, what kind of Cleveland team are we to expect in this game? The Cavs are fully healthy, they’re well rested (it’s the start of the season – duh!), and LeBron seems to be as motivated as ever to start this season and show everyone his team is ready to challenge Golden State again this year. One key difference in this matchup is spacing and 3PT shooting, something that Cavs excel at and an area where the Raptors could struggle. I believe if LeBron is truly as ‘motivated’ as he says he is this season, Cleveland is too talented and should be able to win this one with ease. The spread feels a little short.
Lean: CLE -2.5
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ORL @ DET -4
Magic fell flat on their faces against the Heat on opening night, an indication to me that this team is not ready to be a consistent winner as a listed ‘favorite’. But today they return to a more familiar ‘underdog’ role, where they are 64-58 ATS over the last few years. The Pistons are also coming off a ‘humbling’ defeat, though they did play one of the best teams in the Eastern Conference. Their assist-rate was below 50% and TO-rate of over 12%, indicating some potential long-term issues here with Reggie Jackson out of the lineup (he’s supposed to miss 4-6 weeks). Ish Smith didn’t play too bad, but he’s not as dynamic of a scorer as Jackson. Detroit needs to find some offense from their secondary players and of course from Dummond while RJ is out. Orlando has plenty of big guys, but that didn’t stop the Heat from accumulating 74 PIP (Points In the Paint) against them. That’s almost 70% of all of Miami’s production in that game, which is unheard of! The return of Biyambo (was suspended for game 1) should help of course, as he’s a premier paint defender and rebounder. I would expect a closer game between these two teams, than each experienced in the opener as both are looking to get into the ‘win’ column.
Lean: ORL +4
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IND @ BKN +6.5
Don’t let the final score fool you, the Nets were outplayed from start to finish in their opening night game, and are truly one of the worst teams in the league this year. Their 18-2 run at the very end of the 4th quarter contributed to the final score being much closer than it truly was. In any case, for this matchup, the Pacers should create similar problems for Nets as Boston did. Brook Lopez only played 21 minutes against Boston, primarily due to his difficulty in guarding an athletic, perimeter oriented player like Horford. Well, the Pacers have that in Myles Turner, a 20-year old future superstar, with 3-PT range. All in all, this Pacers starting unit is very athletic overall, and this could cause some serious matchup problems for the Nets. If Lopez can’t get it going again tonight, it drastically reduces Nets’ chances to compete. I believe we could see a similar scenario tonight as in the ‘Boston’ game as I expect the Nets to struggle to defend Indy’s quickness.
Lean: IND -6.5
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PHX @ OKC -9.5
I didn’t expect the Thunder to struggle as much as they did in their opening game of the season against a bad Philly team. The Sixers actually outplayed them, as they had a +3 differential average for the game. Maybe life without KD will be more difficult than anyone expected? Of course it could be just one game, as we’ll see how the Thunder do tonight. One issue for them is that there just isn’t much perimeter shooting for this team. Teams can collapse defenders into the paint, take away Westbrook’s drives, and force Thunder into inefficient long-range jump shots. OKC was only 49% within 5-feet against Philly, which is not something you’d expect from a team with Westbrook on it. Playing at home against another pretty bad team like the Suns, I’d expect Thunder to bounce back here. Phoenix was awful defensively in their first game of the season and I don’t see this team being disciplined enough defensively to contain Westbrook and Co. tonight.
Lean: OKC -9.5
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CHA @ MIA -2
Both teams are coming off impressive wins, though Miami’s performance might be more so. Scoring 74 PIP will do that. Charlotte though has Hibbert, who is coming off a 5-block game, so points in the paint won’t come as easy this time around. With both Hibbert and Whiteside patrolling the paint for their respective teams, the key question for this one could be which team has more perimeter fire-power? That’s most likely Charlotte. Miami is missing their starting SG Josh Richardson still (knee), and he’s their best perimeter shooter. And while scoring points was fairly easy against a poor Orlando D, Charlotte’s D is going to be much more difficult to crack. Hornets are a ‘better’ team, and I think there’s enough edges in this one for them to squeak out a win.
Lean: CHA +2
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HOU @ DAL -1.5
Man, this Houston defense is going to be horrendous this year. Allowing 120 to the Lakers is pretty much indicative of that. Of course it doesn’t help that their best defender, Patrick Beverley, is out for the next 4-6 weeks with a knee injury. Of course, Dallas might not be any better, as they allowed 130 (115 in regulation) to the Pacers. Keep in mind that these two teams play each other again on Sunday, this time in Houston. Based on what happens tonight, could be an opportunity to fade the winner, as the losing team could/should make adjustments. For this one, I’d give the home team a slight edge.
Lean: DAL -1.5
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LAL @ UTA -8.5
Gordon Hayward is out until mid/late November as is Alec Burks. Derrick Favors practiced fully though on Thursday and will see how he feels during the shoot-around to determine his playing status. Hayward was Utah’s leading scorer last year while Favors was 2nd, so it’d be big to get him back on the court at least. Even still I doubt he plays his full allotment of minutes. As far as the Lakers are concerned, it’s a little hard to take a team seriously when they’re starting Nick Young. Expect a lot of volatility with this squad this year. Overall, Utah is a superior team and I think if Favors plays, you have to like their chances in this one.
Lean: UTA -8.5
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GSW @ NOP +10
I’m wondering if all games following Warriors losses, should be auto-bet on the Dubs. A team as dominant as they should be, is expected to bounce back after defeats, especially this early in the season. Without Holiday, Evans, and Pondexter (excellent 3PT shooter), this team is serious devoid of talent. Yes, AD is awesome, but he can’t do it alone. If Warriors game-plan to slow him down, there just isn’t enough talent to pick up the slack.
Lean: GSW -10
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