MVP odds
(via sportsbook.ag)
LeBron -280 (54.1% chance)
Curry +220 (22.9% chance)
K Thompson 6/1 (10.5% chance)
D Green 12/1 (5.6% chance)
Iguodala 25/1 (2.8% chance)
Irving 25/1 (2.8% chance)
Livingston 75/1 (.98% chance)
T. Thompson 500/1 (.15% chance)
H. Barnes 1000/1 (.07% chance)
Percentage chance above calculated through a weighted removal of the Vig (136.2% chance reduced to 100%, equaling 26.6% vig)
Current Game 7 Moneyline
(which is obviously equal to series odds)
GS -180 (63% chance)
Cavs +160 (37% chance)
Possible MVP and Title combos
Assuming that no Cavs player other than LeBron has a chance to win the MVP if the Cavs lose, and assuming no GS player has the chance to win MVP if GS lose.
Cavs win title (non-Lebron MVP)
= 2.95% chance (adding Irving and Thompson)
Cavs win title (Lebron MVP):
Cavs chance of winning game (37%) minus other Cavs (2.95%)
= 34.05% chance
GS win title (GS MVP)
Six GS players with odds add up to
= 42.9% chance
GS win title (LeBron MVP)
LeBron’s overall MVP chance (54.1% chance) - chance with Cavs win (34.05%)
= 20.05% chance
If GS wins, odds of LeBron winning MVP?
(20.05% / 62.95%)
= 31.9% chance