I saw in Game 3 that the line opened at GSW -1.5 and closed at around GSW +1.5. Tonight's line is GSW -4.5 or GSW -5. It seems pretty weird that there's like a 6 point swing between game 3 and game 4 considering the game is in the same venue and there aren't any huge injury concerns (that I'm aware of). This kind of thing would usually lead me to believe there is a "market overreaction" with people being so enamored GSW in game 3 that the oddsmakers had to make a huge adjustment.
But then I look back at games 1 and 2. The Warriors were favored by 10 points in both of those games at home. But then when game 3 came along, u had the best team in the league getting a point or two. You would have thought that if game 2 was GSW -10, that game 3 would have been around GSW -4, right? So maybe it was a market overreaction between games 2 and 3, after seeing how close HOU played the Warriors in Oracle. And now for game 4, the line is closer to where it should have been.
So if y'all believe in overreactions, do you think the overreaction came in the line for game 3 and the game 4 line is where it "should" be, or is the overreaction taking place tonight after the beatdown that GSW gave HOU in the previous game?