Just one Sunday play stands out on this end
Blazer injury issues & 0-4 Season Record keeps me off POR
Wes Matthews PLUS his replacement Afflalo injuries at the ‘2’ thus
POR Lillard hit 3’s at .0051 lower clip in this year overall
Key reason the Blazers descended down the stretch
All took a toll on POR, who finished w/5 fewer wins, despite adding depth (Kaman/Blake/Afflalo)
Matthews finished w/the third most 3’s Made/Gm (3rd to both GSW ‘Splash Bro’s’)
Afflalo was proving to be a valuable replacement w/his ‘D’ assignment work
Player matchups actually look oddly favorable for Blazers...
MEM Z-Bo distaste for guarding perimeter 4’s like POR’s “L.A.” (Aldridge)
Marginalized, ailing MEM Conley vs double-quick POR Lillard, ect
Still staying away from POR at MEM Game 1
2015 NBA EASTERN CONFERENCE PLAYOFFS
Sun Apr 19, 2015 | 5:35 PM, EDT | TNT
Philips Arena | Atlanta, Georgia
Round #1 | Game #1
8 BROOKLYN NETS (38-44)
1 ATLANTA HAWKS (60-22)
Brooklyn Nets | Projected Starters
1 BKN 6-03 | 210 WILLIAMS 30y
2 BKN 6-03 | 190 BROWN 23y
3 BKN 6-07 | 241 JOHNSON 33y
4 BKN 6-08 | 222 YOUNG 26y
5 BKN 7-00 | 260 LOPEZ 27y
Brooklyn Nets | Key Contributors
1 BKN 6-03 | 201 Jack 31y
2 BKN 6-06 | 222 Anderson y Inj-Ques
3 BKN 6-07 | 216 Bogdanovic y
4 BKN 6-09 | 218 Jefferson 24y
5 BKN 6-10 | 237 Plumlee 25y
Brooklyn Nets | Key Player Out
3 BKN 6-08 | 245 Teletovic 29y Inj-Out for 2 Games
Atlanta Hawks | Projected Starters
1 ATL 6-02 | 180 TEAGUE 26y
2 ATL 6-07 | 210 KORVER 34y
3 ATL 6-08 | 212 CARROLL 28y
4 ATL 6-08 | 245 MILSAP 29y Inj-Prob
5 ATL 6-10 | 245 HORFORD 28y
Atlanta Hawks | Key Contributors
1 ATL 6-01 | 168 Schroder 21y
2 ATL 6-03 | 215 Mack 25y
3 ATL 6-05 | 201 Bazemore 25y
4 ATL 6-08 | 237 Scott 26y Inj-Ques
5 ATL 6-11 | 260 Antic 32y Illness-Prob
Atlanta Hawks | Key Player Out
2 ATL 6-05 | 215 Sefolosha 30y INJ-OFS
Even before the Hawks off-the-court turmoil involving Sefolosha & Antic
Atlanta was routinely being written off, overlooked & dismissed in most ECF Finals predictions
The Hawks could be the most undervalued 60 Win, #1 Seeded Team in recent memory
A case can clearly be made that ATL coasted in w/20-14 Finish
Also, the Hawks were 6-7 in those games vs winning teams
It all cannot be sitting well w/ATL
Clearly, ATL matches up very well w/the sub -500 Nets
This is just a simple message opportunity for the Hawks to twist the knife early & often
These Hawks have very little weakness, except (now, especially) Depth
Atlanta is not just a great 3-point shooting squad (#2 in 38.2% and #4 in 3-Pt Rate 32% Pts from deep_
ATL is a robust #6 NBA Defense (also #6 Offensive Efficiency) at a Dead-Even #15 PACE
Oddly, the one key indicator to ATL’s franchise record 60 Win Year WAS good health
ATL’s Al Horford logging a FULL productive season (16 & 7)
Horford finishing as the NBA’s #4 Postman (PER Rating) was and is critical
Stability in the Paint - ATL modest yet respectable #10 Paint ranking
Allows the Hawks to space the floor for Korver, Teague, Milsap, Schroder, Carroll, Bazemore, Mack et al,
To gain all the clean catch & shoot looks that resulted in ATL’s robust #3 NBA eFG of 52.6%
Brooklyn?
Don’t like to rely on Regular Season Series trends too much
Yet...ATL ripped the Nets all 4 times
Trying to find a good - or even better than average statistical edge in ANY aspect of BKN’s stylistics…
Is difficult
Even the lowest non-playoff teams usually have a few things they do well
Nets simply don’t have ANY metric(s) that stand out in a plus or top ½ NBA column
BKN #23 NBA PPG Differential -3.0
BKN #24 NBA Efficiency Differential -.032 PPP
BKN #18 NBA Offensive Efficiency 1.044 Points Per Possession
BKN #23 NBA Defensive Efficiency 1.076 PPP Allowed
BKN #18 NBA Points in Paint Rating -1.7
BKN #23 NBA Points Outside Paing Rating -7.0
BKN #22 NBA Starters Rating -6.0
BKN #20 NBA Bench Rating -2.5
BKN #17 NBA eFG 49.2%
BKN #20 NBA FT Percentage 74.8%
BKN #18 NBA FTA|FGA 20%
BKN #26 NBA 3-Point Percentage 33.1%
BKN #20 NBA 3PA|FGA 24%
BKN #22 NBA Backcourt Rating
BKN #21 NBA Frontcourt Rating
As we all know, BKN does have two good Bigs (Young, 20 PPG last 3 Games) and Lopez
And a decent PG in Deron Williams (#14 of 30 Starting PG’s in PER)
Aside from this, BKN is in the playoffs and should be cannon-fodder for ATL here
Favorites cover 73% of the time in the last 20 Years of “Round 1 | Game 1
Just the way it looks on paper - at every conceivable angle
2 UNIT
BROOKLYN
ATLANTA -10 (-105 | 5-Dimes)
All the best, guys