2014 - 2015 NBA Record
211 – 179 @ 54% for +14.1 Units
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2014 - 2015 NBA Playoffs Record
0 – 0 @ 0% for +0 Units
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#1: Dallas Mavericks +5.5
#2: Future: Dallas Mavericks +1.5 games for the Series
A couple of key factors in Mavericks’ favor here. First, without Beverley, Houston has a terrible defensive combo at the guard spot. Harden and Terry is probably the worst defensive combo in the playoffs this year. Rondo and Ellis should be able to take advantage of this on the offensive end. Second factor is Dallas’ ability to force TO’s. They ranked 4th in the defensive TO-rate metric this year. This is important because Dallas is NOT a good defensive team overall (20th in DefEff). But their ability to force mistakes is crucial in this series, especially since Houston ranks 28th in offensive TO-rate. Third factor is ‘health’. Mavs have had some ‘health’ issues but Parsons is coming back today, Harris is listed as questionable but reports indicate he’ll play, and overall this team looks to be in pretty good shape. Houston on the other hand will be without Beverley and Motiejunas, two important players. Howard is also coming off an injury and his minutes have been restricted some, so we’ll see how he handles playing a bigger role in the post-season. Overall, Houston’s health issues could very well be the difference here. And finally, I think we can’t discount the effect of coaching here. Rick Carlisle is regarded as one of the best coaches in the game as he is a schematic mastermind and of course has a championship winning pedigree. McHale isn’t considered in the same class. I think in a matchup where we have two fairly evenly matched teams, coaching could actually be the thing that puts Mavs over the top. Regardless, I like them to get a cover in game 1 of this series and I’m also going to place a series play on it. I like the +1.5 games for the series a bit better than the straight up odds as I expect a very close one here with a game 7 definitely a possibility.
Good Luck