2014 - 2015 NBA Record
172 – 138 @ 56% for +20.2 Units
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#1: Sacramento Kings -4
I know Knicks have won 2 games in a row behind none other than Bargnani, but how long can they keep this up? You got to believe that a group led by Cousins, Gay, and George Karl should be capable of winning against this rag-tag Knicks bunch. I don’t think 2 buckets is enough in this one and I’m going to fade a bad NY team after a short winning streak.
#2: Washington Wizards -1.5
The Wizards are a different team with Beal in the lineup for some reason. They can’t win without him but they’re a tough team with him. Besides Bulls are without Rose, Gibson, and arguably their best player, Jimmy Butler. Wall should dominate his matchup and Washington has the front-court to give Chicago a lot of trouble. I’ll back the ‘better’ team tonight.
#3: Utah Jazz +7
Utah is 11-4-1 in the last 16 games, indicating that they’re playing very well and exceeding expectations. Tonight they face a slow-paced Grizzlies team that is heavily dependent on the inside games of Z-Bo and Gasol. Basically, Utah is going to be facing a very similar team to themselves as they have Favors/Gobert manning the paint, with Hayward creating on the perimeter. I expect a grinder of a game here as both play at a bottom-5 pace and my model has this one at Utah +6. I’ll grab the value with the inflated line.
#4: Denver Nuggets +5.5
Sometimes all you need is for a major change to take place to see a team ‘exceed’ expectations in the short-term. With Shaw getting canned, I expect we’ll see that with the Nuggets tonight. And it’s not like they’re facing a ‘hot’ team. Milwaukee is 2-9 ATS in the last 11 games and continues to be over-valued. I’ll back the home underdog tonight.