2014 - 2015 NBA Record
169 – 129 @ 56% for +27.1 Units
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#1: Oklahoma City Thunder -4.5
We have two teams going in different directions here. OKC is on a 9-1 run, absolutely mauling people lately, while PHX is 4-10, finally breaking their 5-game losing streak yesterday to arguably the ‘worst’ team in the league in Denver Nuggets. Tonight, the Suns are on a b2b, playing their 3rd game in 4 nights, and their 5th game in 7, with no consecutive games in the ‘same’ city (all required travel). In addition, the previous 4 games have all been pretty close: @ MIN - Suns with a -3.6 average margin, @ CHI - with a -1.2 average margin, vs BOS - with a -9.2 average margin, and @ DEN yesterday - with a +5.6 average margin. Even though they won by 14 against the Nuggets, the game was pretty close throughout with Suns just pulling away late in the 4th. And let me reiterate this Denver team is absolute garbage - Afflalo traded, Chandler injured, Manimal benched/ injured, Lawson disenchanted, Brian Shaw way over his head. The last few games required heavy minutes by Suns’ key guys and that was against bad teams like BOS and DEN: Bledsoe (38 MPG in the last 2) and Knight (34 MPG in the last 2). By comparison, Thunder have been involved in consecutive blow-outs so their key guys didn’t need to exert themselves as much: Westbrook (28 MPG in the last 2) and Ibaka (28 MPG in the last 2). This difference in minutes and of course a tough physical spot for the Suns should come into play in the 2nd half of this one, especially given the fact that we have two teams that play at a top-8 pace.
Statistically, there are a couple of key advantages for OKC in this one. Thunder ranks 3rd in offensive rebounding rate, while the Suns are one of the worst defensive rebounding teams in the league (#26). The newly acquired Enes Kanter, the rejuvenated Ibaka, and a promising youngster McGary should be feasting on the boards here. Another key factor in Thunder’s favor is Phoenix’s propensity to send their opponents to the FT-line where they rank 28th on the season. Westbrook has been in the attack mode since Durant went down, and I’d expect him to attack the rim at will tonight if OKC’s shots aren’t falling. Expect a lot of ‘easy’ points via FT’s and offensive boards from OKC. And speaking of “shots falling” tonight, Phoenix has been atrocious defensively lately. They rank 21st in Def-Efficiency on the season (19th in eFG%-allowed) but have been much worse in the last 5 games or so. Not including yesterday’s game against the horrible Nuggets, Suns’ opponents have averaged 116 PPG against them in the previous 4 games. I expect OKC to at least match that number tonight and I doubt a fatigued Phoenix team will be able to keep up. Lay the points with confidence in this one.
Good luck