2014 - 2015 NBA Record
131 – 91 @ 60% for +30.9 Units
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#1: Portland Trail Blazers +6.5
The Atlanta Hawks are on an amazing run, but clearly the lines on them are becoming very inflated by the bookmakers. The Hawks failed to cover the last two games by 5.5 and by 3 points, and there should be value in fading this team in the short-term going forward. Today is such case. These teams faced off earlier this month with Portland listed as a -6.5 home favorite. With standard H/A adjustment, you’d expect the Blazers to be at about Pick ‘em tonight. Of course that’s not the case and there’s clearly value on the underdog in this one. In addition, Damian Lillard had this to say on his Instagram page: “…Thank the coaches who feel I wasn’t good enough, the fans that didn’t think I was good enough, and Adam Silver also for not thinking I was good enough….”, in reference to not making the All-Star team. Lillard is over-reacting a bit as it’s really hard to fit ALL deserving players on the team, but of course as long as he takes this as a ‘snub’ we could expect him to give a little more effort going forward in the short-term. Blazers have the firepower to hang with Atlanta and I’ll grab the value with the underdog in this one.
#2: Toronto Raptors -7.5
With the team getting acclimated to DeRozan again, the Rapots have won 4 in a row and have averaged over 112 PPG in the last 3. They now take on a Brooklyn squad that has allowed 109 PPG in their last 5, playing some of the worst basketball of the season. In those 5 games Brooklyn has the SOS-adjusted net differential of -17, the worst mark in the league. Orland at -11 is the next worst, so that tells you how poorly Brooklyn is playing right now. Toronto ranks 2nd in OffEff and 8th in eFG%. They don’t turn the ball over and are very good at getting to the FT-line. This inefficient Nets offense will have a hard time staying close and I expect the Raptors to pull away in the 2nd half for a comfortable win tonight.
#3: Houston Rockets -6.5
Boston is playing their first home-game after a grueling 6-game West Coast road-trip that spanned 10 days. Guys like Avery Bradley and Evan Turner are playing with nagging injuries, which is an issue for today’s matchup. Just like Houston, Boston loves to push the pace, but unfortunately for them, they’re not as efficient. The Celtics rank 18th in OffEff and 17th in eFG%, while ranking 24th in 3PT shooting. Without Howard, Rockets are spacing the floor and running the offense through Harden even more than usual. With Terrence Jones back, Houston has another ‘big’ in their rotation and shouldn’t miss Howard too much against an undersized Celtics front-line. I like Houston’s chances of covering tonight.
#4: Sacramento Kings +7
Just like Lillard, DeMarcus Cousins has to feel ‘slighted’ that he wasn’t selected as an All-Star the ‘normal’ way. He was added on by Adam Silver after Kobe Bryant had to pull out due to an injury. Sometimes players take that very personally, and play with an increased effort in the short-term. I expect Cousins to be his dominant self tonight. More importantly, the Kings are way under-valued in this one. These two teams met on 01/11 in Sacramento with the Kings listed as a -3.5 home favorite. With H/A adjustments you’d expect them to be around +2.5 in the rematch. Well, the number is much higher than that. LeBron James is doubtful for tonight and he also missed the first meeting, so we can compare the two lines. In the first meeting, Kings dominated the game winning by an average margin of +12.5 throughout. I don’t see why they can’t at least keep it close tonight. Cavs are coming off a pretty ‘lucky’ win against Portland at home, a game where Kyrie Irving went off for 55 points. Take that away and the rest of the team shot 17 for 49 (35%) from the field with only 44 points. As a team, Cleveland had 16 assists in the game (AST-rate below 50%!), zero fast-break points, and only 20 points in the paint. They did NOT play a good ‘team’ basketball game and were able to win due to Irving’s ridiculous performance. Expecting the same thing tonight would be unreasonable. I don’t see Irving shooting 11 for 19 from the 3PT line and 17 for 36 from the field on his way to 55 points. The problem is that Cleveland is 2-8 without LeBron now, and a big reason for that is they don’t know how to play ‘team ball’ without him. I expect Irving to once again jack up a ton of shots as his teammates stand around watching, but of course his success-rate should be much lower than it was on Wednesday. Kings have ‘pure value’ in this one, they have a dominant big-man in Cousins who is a matchup nightmare for Cavs, and they’re ‘fresher’ tonight, playing only their 2nd game in 7 days. By comparison, Cavs are playing their 4th game in that time-span, and of course they’ll be playing it without their best player.
#5: Los Angeles Clippers -5
This play is all due to Anthony Davis and my projection that he will miss this game. Even if he plays, the spread is not high enough where LA will have a tough time covering it, so the risk is pretty minimal here in terms of the potential reward of Davis sitting out. The reason I think he sits is because New Orleans has shown propensity to treat their superstar with “kids’ gloves” since he came into the league. Any type of small injury or ailment and Davis typically sits out until he’s 100%. He seems to be pretty fragile, getting hurt often and I’m sure the Pelicans are just trying to protect their investment long-term. Davis’ latest injury is a sprained groin, which he sustained in his last game. Here’s what he had to say about his chances of playing today: “I definitely would want to play, but at the same time I’m not sure if it would be good for what the injury is”. Here’s what Monty Williams said: “…..he’ll have to go out on the floor and do his workout….But there is no need of putting him on the floor if he’s going to drag his leg”. These are not encouraging signs for Davis tonight. And if he sits, that’s an absolutely huge loss for New Orleans. Davis is the best player in the league this year (according to PER) and his absence will enable Griffin and Jordan to absolutely dominate the paint on both ends of the court. Pelicans only rank 18th in eFG% and 19th in 3PT shooting, and I don’t see them being able to hang with the #1 ranked offense in the league tonight. And if Davis misses this one, then I think this game could be an easy blowout for the Clips. Besides, Chris Paul is returning back ‘home’ and I could see him playing with a little more effort than usual tonight.
#6: Dallas Mavericks -8.5
Dallas is on a 4-game losing streak, getting beaten by Chicago, New Orleans, Memphis, and Houston. All of those teams are much better than Miami, a team that ranks 24th in Efficiency-differential this season. To make matters worse, Miami will be without Deng and Wade tonight. Miami won @ Dallas early in the season, back in November, so it’s a great opportunity for the Mavs to exact some revenge tonight. Whiteside will face off against a dominant defensive center in Tyson Chandler, Danny Granger is old, Mario Chalmers is one of the most inefficient players in the league, and neither Norris Cole nor Shabazz Napier are able to run the offense effectively at this point of their careers. That leaves just Chris Bosh to carry the offense and I just don’t see that being enough against an elite offensive team like the Mavs. There’s no doubt from my standpoint that Dallas will win this game and I hope the 4-game losing streak is motivation enough for a strong effort for the full 48-minutes tonight. If that’s the case, I expect a double-digit win for the visitors in this one.
#7: Phoenix Suns -7
After going to OT on Tuesday @ GSW, Chicago went into double-OT yesterday @ LA. Here are the minutes logged by their key players in the last two games:
Pau Gasol: 41 + 44
Joakim Noah: 40 + 42
Derrick Rose: 43 + 42
Jimmy Butler: * + 49 (missed the TUE game)
That’s a lot of minutes logged by these guys and now they are on a b2b and playing their 3rd road game in 4 nights. The matchup couldn’t have been worse as they’ll take on a fast-paced Suns team that runs a guard-centric offense. Derrick Rose has shot 20 for 59 (34%) in his last two games with 16 turnovers. More importantly his defense has been atrocious, as guys have been getting to the basket against him at will. That’s going to be a major issue tonight as he’ll have to cover either Bledsoe, Dragic, or Thomas as 2 out of the 3 typically play together at all times. Relying on Noah and slow-footed Gasol to protect the rim won’t be an option in such a tough physical spot and I expect Suns’ guards to get a lot of easy looks at the rim here. In addition, Phoenix ranks 6th in forcing turnovers and that could be a problem for a fatigued Bulls offense. I expect Phoenix to push the pace, attack the basket aggressively, and force a lot of turnovers on offense. Unless Rose rediscovers his magic shooting touch, I have a hard time seeing Chicago staying in this one for the full 48-minutes.
Good Luck