Doing a little bit of work this morning, we might have some value betting on the team total in this game, given we have such a large point spread....and given the circumstances we probably don't want anything to do with a side in this game....although I can confirm there is some sharp money early on the dog.
Anyways, as I mentioned, Atlanta team total might be the way to go. Right now the ATL team total is set at 109.5 and I think we actually might have some value UNDER that total....and I have some data to substantiate that claim.
As I mentioned in a previous article pertaining to the "causes for success" in this Atlanta basketball team, there are some very consistent data points that help explain what they are doing as a team, and how the system works...more so than any other team in basketball at the moment (although I am still working a model for every team)
Now, with that said, I am going to run the data points for MIN through my model before we make a bet, but ATM I feel strong about this play.
At first glace, it might seem there isn't any value on the team total, because if you run team PPG totals through a standard deviation model, there is just to large of a margin to make any sort of credible prediction...however if you rerun the model through the individual players you find very credible data points.
So we are going to take the top 10 players who the Hawks are giving credible minutes to, and ATM there is no injury news, and everyone looks healthy/ready to go tonight.
If you look at the PPG team totals, you end up with a mean of 106, but 1SD of over 7.3. So nothing to write home about....but then look at the second chart. I took the adjusted deviated player totals for all starters and bench players...who have incredibly consistent deviations, and created starter/bench standard deviations. As you can see, now we're talking. We have deviations of just over 3 for the starters and 1 for the bench players! So in other words, we know exactly what we're going to get on a consistent basis +/- 3 and 1 points respectively. Add the bench players and starters and you get 104.1 points per game, 76.4 +/- THREE, and 27.7 +/- ONE. Now, like I said, value appears to be on UNDER the team total, but I want to do some work on MIN first. So we'll wait some.
Here are the charts:
PPG |
103 |
110 |
93 |
107 |
110 |
105 |
105 |
120 |
106 |
96 |
107 |
115 |
98 |
109 |
90 |
106 |
7.384147955 |
Starters |
Bench |
17.9 |
6.8 |
11.5 |
6 |
15.8 |
5.7 |
18.7 |
6 |
12.5 |
3.2 |
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76.4 |
27.7 |
15.28 |
5.54 |
3.195622005 |
1.370401401
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