2014 - 2015 NBA Record
74 – 59 @ 0% for +9.1 Units
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#1: Charlotte Hornets -2.5
The Hornets are missing Lance Stephenson, but they are playing much better ‘basketball’ without him. Overall this team is 5-2 ATS in the last 7. Today they’ll take on a Denver team that is missing a number of key players. Both Gallinari and Arthur are out. In addition, Ty Lawson missed the shoot-around and is listed as GTD with an injured back. I think he might miss the game actually, which is a huge loss. This 19th ranked Denver offense will really struggle without Lawson, who is a center-piece of the attack. Denver is only 4-9 ATS on the road and 6-10 ATS as an underdog, and I like Hornets’ chances in this one.
#2: Houston Rockets -3.5
This is a ‘revenge’ game for Houston after being eliminated by Portland in last year’s playoffs on Lillard’s last second 3PT shot. Houston will have a deeper squad here, after bringing Brewer and Shved on board over the weekend. At the same time, Portland could be without Aldridge. He is listed as questionable with an upper-respiratory illness, and could be at less than 100% even if he suits up. Remember, Portland is already without Lopez, and they need all the big bodies they could find to deal with Howard in the paint. Portland is playing their 3rd straight road game, while Houston is in their 3rd consecutive home one. Rockets lost the first 2 games at home, so I’d expect a much stronger effort tonight. They have the #2 ranked defense and one of the elite PG defenders in the game in Beverley. Slowing down Lillard will be key, and if there’s anyone that has a shot to do it, it’s Beverley. He is holding opposing PG’s to a 10.4 PER (15 PER is average) on the season. Rockets are a turnover-prone team but Portland ranks 28th in defensive TO-rate. In addition, Houston should have advantage on the boards, especially if Aldridge sits. I think Houston will be the more ‘desperate’ team in tonight’s matchup and I like their chances here.
#3: Atlanta Hawks +4.5
Schroeder has proven to be a solid replacement for Teague, and he’s averaging 9 points and 8 assists per game in his last 2 starts. Atlanta has been just as efficient without Teague in its last 2 games and have now won 12 of their last 13 games. They’re coming off wins against CHI, CLE, and HOU and clearly are establishing themselves as a ‘contender’ ranking 6th offensively and 7th on defense. Now they’ll take on a Dallas team that is playing their 2nd game after the big ‘reshuffle’. Gone are Wright, Crowder, and Nelson and in comes in Rondo. There’s a couple of factors in play here. First, it might take some time of course for Rondo to jell with his new teammates and vice versa. In his first game with Dallas, the Mavs barely beat a Spurs team that was missing ALL of their key players. They only had 18 assists on 37 FG’s (48% AST-rate), shot 43% from the floor, and had an offensive rating of 107.8, which was significantly lower than their league-leading 115.7 mark. I know it’s only one game, but one got a feel that Dallas will need a little time to jell. Second factor is that the trade depleted Dallas of its depth. Devin Harris and JJ Barea are both decent options but both are PG’s, so it’s like one ‘real’ option off the bench available. Atlanta is deeper and has both the offense and the defense to challenge Mavs on the road. I like their chances here.
Good Luck