2014 - 2015 NBA Record
70 – 51 @ 0% for +13.9 Units
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#1: Chicago Bulls -13
#2: Sacramento Kings -6.5
#3: Oklahoma City Thunder +2.5
Good Luck
Breakdowns
Thur 12/18:
NYK @ CHI -13
The spread moved from -11 to -13, as both Anthony and Stoudemire are expected to be out. These are NY’s top-2 players, so their absence is huge. JR Smith and Iman Shumpert are also out, so scoring could be an issue for NY. We could see the lineup of Hardaway Jr, Calderon, Prigioni, Acy, and Dalembert…with Jason Smith and Larkin off the bench. Interesting. At the same time Derrick Rose is questionable for tonight with an illness. Knowing Rose, I think he’ll sit, as he wants to be healthy when attending ‘meetings’ in the future ;) Chicago has enough firepower without Rose, plus Noah is back tonight. The Bulls do have a game @ Memphis tomorrow, where the two Gasol brothers will square off against one another. Typically a ‘look ahead’ spot but Chicago is coming off a loss, and I’m sure Thibs has been barking at them for the last two days. Bulls have a chance for an easy win/cover here.
Lean: CHI -13
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NOP @ HOU -4.5
Houston had a late 10:30 PM EST start @ Denver last night, a game that went to OT, and ended at 1:30 AM EST. Today, they have an 8:30 PM EST start, 19 hours since the last one ended. It’s a pretty quick turnaround, with Houston having to travel back home while the Pelicans were already waiting for them yesterday. Rockets’ starters played massive minutes last night, with all logging 42+. Their bench is bare-bones, especially with Terry being absent. No word yet on whether or not Terry plays, but he’s only bench-depth and isn’t much of a difference maker. Houston came away with a really tough road victory yesterday, and I think fatigue could be an issue here. Of course the Pelicans could be without Tyreke Evans, who is listed as questionable. That would be a big loss, as Evans is Pelicans’ 2nd best player. If Evans plays, Pelicans could be worth a look here, especially if Houston’s bench is still depleted. If Evans sits, this one is not as enticing. Guess this is one of those games where you have to wait closer to tip-off to make a decision on.
Lean: NOP +4.5 (if Evans plays)
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MIL @ SAC -6.5
Demarcus Cousins is listed as probable!! Very important factor, as Sacramento is a very different team with Boogie in the lineup than without. Milwaukee is on a b2b and 3in4 spot here, as they went down @ POR in a pretty competitive game. The average lead was actually +1.4 MIL in that game, as they just ran out of steam late. How much will they have for tonight’s game? Milwaukee committed 25 fouls and allowed 29 FT-attempts to Portland last night. Kings rank #1 offensively in FT-rate and with Cousins back, expect this team to shoot a lot of freebies today. In addition, Bucks rank 28th in defensive rebounding while Kings are #1 on the offensive boards. Again, fatigue and low energy for the Bucks will be a real issue in this particular facet of the game. Kings have gone through some turmoil as their coach got fired, but now they’ve had a few days to process it all. By all accounts, Corbin is a players’ coach so I see the Kings playing hard for him. With Cousins back, expect the Kings to try and end their 4-game losing streak tonight.
Lean: SAC -6.5
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OKC @ GSW -2.5
On Tuesday I backed Memphis because they had a good defense and size advantage in the paint. Well, OKC ranks 3rd defensively (2nd in eFG% allowed) and they have size in the paint as well. Adams and Ibaka are both big and athletic, and without Bogut in there, I see the Warriors struggling around the basket. I liked Grizzlies’ strategy where they closed out on perimeter shooters, took away the space, and challenged Curry and Thompson to drive to the basket where Gasol was able to alter their shots. Well both Adams and Ibaka are more athletic than Gasol, and they’re much more efficient shot-blockers. This could be another very difficult game for the Warriors. Memphis limited Golden State only 41% from the field and 29% from the 3PT line, while allowing 12 FT-attempts. Draymond Green struggled against a bigger and more physical Z-Bo, and I think undersized Green will have another real tough matchup against Ibaka tonight. Curry/Thompson will have to deal with an explosive Westbrook which is going to be a really difficult matchup also. Oh, and I haven’t even mentioned the best player on the court, Kevin Durant, who logged 35 minutes @ Sacramento on Tuesday, as his 30-minute limit threshold has finally come off. Without Bogut, the Warriors allow 8.2 more points per 100 possessions and score 6.5 fewer, for a net-rating of 14.7. That’s an absolutely huge impact. The Warriors have beaten OKC on the road earlier this year, though neither KD nor RW played in that one. Now, I think OKC will get a chance to get some revenge, as they are the better team on the floor tonight from my standpoint.
Lean: OKC +2.5