2014 - 2015 NBA Record
69 – 50 @ 0% for +14.0 Units
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#1: Phoenix Suns -2.5
#2: UNDER 192 MEM/SAS
Breakdowns
Wed 12/17:
ATL @ CLE -5.5
Revenge game for the Hawks here as they got embarrassed by Cleveland in their first matchup this season. Both teams were on a b2b in that first game, but ATL was in a 3in4 spot, so maybe that had something to do with a 30+ point loss. In addition, Demare Carroll didn’t play in the first meeting, as Sefolosha suited up instead. Carroll is a ‘plus’ wing defender with size, and he’s a much better matchup on James. Still, it’s interesting that the line is -5.5 here, after being -7 CLE in mid-November. Even as Teague is doubtful and Kevin Love is GTD. Are the bookmakers expecting a strong performance from the Hawks here?
Lean: ATL +5.5
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ORL @ BOS -3.5
The Magic are 12-6 ATS on the road and 6-2 ATS in December so far. Of course they’re facing another team that is 6-2 ATS in the month. Boston is coming off a road win while Orlando is off a loss, where they were leading at halftime in Toronto but scored only 30 points in the 2nd half. I’d like to lean towards ORL here in a ‘bounce back’ spot, but there’s just not enough points here for my liking. The line is pretty accurate.
PASS
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DAL @ DET +6.5
Mavs are on a b2b here but yesterday’s win @ NY was so each, only Monta Ellis exceeded 25 minutes for the Mavs, as their bench guys got plenty of run in that one. Detroit is coming home from a 3-game West Coast road-set. They played well against SAC and PHX, who don’t have much of an inside presence, but struggled against the Clippers who have size with Jordan and Griffin. More importantly, Clippers rank 3rd in OffEff and 1st in eFG%. Well, Dallas has size also, with Chandler and Nowitzki, and they rank 1st overall in OffEff and 2nd in eFG%. Pistons’ 29th ranked offense (30th in eFG%) might have tough time keeping up here.
Lean: DAL -6.5
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BKN @ TOR -11.5
With rumors swirling around that the Nets are looking to blow up their team, Brooklyn lost at home to an undermanned Miami squad last night. Williams logged 39 mins, Johnson 37, and Plumlee 32. Now this team has to go on the road and take on the best team in the Eastern Conference. Toronto got eliminated in the playoffs by the Nets last year, so could have a bit of ‘revenge’ angle in this one. Could very well be a rout.
Lean: TOR -11.5
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PHX @ CHA +2
The Suns have now lost 7 in a row, as they committed 20 TO’s and allowed 19 FBP’s in their last game, another close loss, to the Bucks this time. Can they improve on those numbers tonight? Well, they’re facing a DET team that ranks 25th in defensive TO-rate. More importantly they should get Dragic back for this one, as he missed the last few games. Dragic is a very important player for the Suns, as he pushes the pace and provides a ton of open looks for his teammates. He didn’t play that well in the first meeting with Charlotte, a game Phoenix lost by 8 at home. The real issue was the bench, that shot 6 for 23 (26%) and combined for 20 points. Suns’ bench is their strength in most matchups, and I don’t see them playing as poorly in the rematch.
Lean: PHX -2
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UTA @ MIA -4
Miami gutted out a 4-point win @ BKN last night, without Bosh or McRoberts. Deng logged 41 minutes and Wade 36. Wade also seemed to tweak his knee a bit yesterday and I would not be surprised if he’s held out today. He’s already hard to depend on when it’s a b2b spot, so important to wait to see his availability. While Miami won their game, Utah let theirs slip away from them, getting outscored 41-22 in the 4th quarter, and losing by 8 to the Pelicans. It’s another reminder that bad teams have trouble holding on to double-digit leads late. Favors missed yesterday’s game but he participate in the shoot-around on Tuesday, so I would assume he has a good chance to come back tonight. He and Kanter should have a major advantage in the paint tonight. When these teams played each other last week, Kanter had 25 points on 10 for 17 from the field with 8 rebounds as Favors only played 10 minutes due to injury. Bosh was a big factor for Miami in that game, going 9 for 16 for 22 points and 9 rebounds. I think Utah should have a very good chance in this game, even with Wade in the lineup. Without Wade, Utah could be a very strong play here.
Lean: UTA +4
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MEM @ SAS -3.5
A huge win by the Grizzlies at home last night, ending Golden State’s long winning streak. So a let-down game today right? Possibly. Of course it’s important to note that the Spurs are without Leonard and Parker, two of their key players. Plus the Grizzlies did a good job of managing their players’ minutes yesterday, and of course they had 2 days off prior to last night. I don’t think fatigue will be as big of an issue here. We could see a slower paced game here (no Parker to push it), with two teams that don’t rebound the ball offensively, and two defenses ranking top-5 in FT-rate allowed.
Lean: UNDER
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MIL @ POR -9.5
First game for the Bucks after losing their #2 overall pick, Jabari Parker, for the season. In the short-term we could see Milwaukee’s backup players step up in his absence. In the long term, the Bucks could have issues with their depth, especially since they’re dealing with other injuries to a number of players.
PASS
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IND @ LAC -11
The issue for the Pacers is that West and Hibbert have really been underperforming. Their defense is pretty poor so far this year and both are very inefficient scorers. Against LA’s front-court of Griffin and Jordan, that’s a major issue. Indiana lacks the perimeter scoring, and they rank 27th offensively and 26th in eFG%. So if West and Hibbert are neutralized on the inside, this team could really struggle. This is a similar matchup for LA as they had with DET a few days ago. They won that one 113 to 91 and I wouldn’t be surprised by a similar outcome tonight.
Lean: LAC -11
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HOU @ DEN +2
Houston beat Denver last week by 12, as a 7-point home favorite. The bookmakers adjusted the line for the rematch by 5 points. But there are a few things to note. First, the average lead in the game for HOU was +3.5, so the final score isn’t necessarily indicative of the competitiveness of that game. Second, Ty Lawson was an efficient 7 for 13 from the field for 19 points and 12 assists. At first when I saw the score from the 1st meeting, I assumed that Beverley shut down Lawson which made the whole team inefficient. Well that wasn’t the case at all. If Lawson could do this against Beverley on the road, he could be even better at home in the rematch. Third, Denver played without Gallinari and Robinson, and Faried was pretty limited, logging 20 minutes off the bench. These guys aren’t anything special, but they are playmakers and decent ball players. Today, they are all fully healthy while Houston is without Terry, their 6th guy (kid’s birth). This is a dangerous game for Houston.
Lean: DEN +2