2014 - 2015 NBA Record
63 – 45 @ 0% for +13.5 Units
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#1: Portland Trail Blazers -2.5 (1st Half Only)
#2: Atlanta Hawks -3
#3: Detroit Pistons +5.5
Good Luck
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Breakdowns
Sat 12/13:
GSW @ DAL +1
That’s 14 in a row for the Warriors now and with every win, it gets harder and harder to keep the streak going. Their next 3 games are on the road @ DAL today, @ NO tomorrow, and @ MEM on Tuesday, and I’d bet that the streak ends by the time the road trip is over. The question is, will it end tonight? Well, actually not toNIGHT but toDAY, as this is a day game in Dallas. So the 1PM central time @ Dallas, is actually going to feel like an 11 AM game for the Warriors, who are of course in the Pacific time zone. NBA players are used to play at night, so to get their bodies ready for day-games is a little tougher, especially for West-Coast teams. I know that Golden State have had 2 days off since hosting HOU on Wednesday, and I’m sure they’ve arrived to Dallas early, but still I wonder if their internal ‘body clock’ could be slow to adjust to the early start time. That’s one potential factor in Dallas’ favor. The other one is more tangible, and that’s the absence of Andrew Bogut. We all know that Golden State is the BEST defensive team in the league, allowing 97.6 points per 100 possessions, the only mark in the league that is below 100 (Rockets are second @ 100.5, though they’ve been playing without Howard for awhile, so their true defensive rating is better once DH comes back). But Bogut is absolutely critical to their D. Warriors are 9.4 points / 100 possession better with Bogut on the court, and he holds opposing centers to a PER of 12.0 (league average is 15), which is absolutely dominant number. Bogut missed his first game on Wednesday, a game where Rockets led in the 4th quarter, but a 32-17 run by the Warriors in the 4th ended Houston’s chances for an upset. Houston is undermanned right now without Howard, but Dallas is a deep team with plenty of talent. I think Bogut’s absence will be even more pronounced. Additionally, Dallas ranks 2nd in defensive TO-rate and we all know that Golden State is a very TO-prone team, 26th in offensive TO-rate. Throw in the fact that Ellis is facing his old team, and I think we’ll see a very strong effort from the Mavs in this one. Keep in mind Chandler Parsons is GTD as is Jameer Nelson.
Lean: DAL +1
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POR @ IND +5
The Blazers have now lost 2 games in a row as their long 5-game road-trip is coming to an end tonight. They are on a b2b and playing their 4th game in 5 nights and their 5th game in 7 nights, all away from home. They also have a home game against the Spurs coming up, but I doubt this is a look-ahead spot after two straight losses. I’d expect Portland to focus on winning this game against a mediocre Pacers squad. Indiana is also on a b2b, having played @ TOR last night. They’re in a 3in4 spot and playing their 4th game in 6 nights. Both teams are in a fatigue spot here. There’s a report out that Hibbert is dealing with an ankle issue, which is hindering him in games. In addition, David West has a DefRtg of 108.8, the worst on the team. His NetRtg of -22.2 is also the worst, with Stuckey at -12.9 behind him. That’s a huge variance and an indication of how poorly West has played this year. I think Portland will have a strong advantage in the front-court with Aldridge and Lopez, and with Indiana allowing the 7th highest FG% from the 10-16 foot range, I would expect Aldridge to have a big game as that’s his sweet-spot.
Lean: POR -5
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BKN @ CHA -4
Both Charlotte and Brooklyn are on a b2b and 3in4 spot here. Brooklyn struggled against the worst team in the league at home, needing a +15 4th quarter to put away the Sixers. Charlotte was involved in a double-OT game @ Memphis, against one of the better teams in the league. Kemba Walker logged 48 minutes, Jefferson 45, Henderson/Zeller/Neal in the 30’s. The Hornets are playing much better basketball with all their key guys healthy now but I’m wondering if we’ll see a bit of a let-down after such a hard fought game last night. I’d love to back them at home against a Lopez-less Nets team, but it’s a tough spot.
PASS
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ATL @ ORL +3
Vucevic is returning for this game, which is a big factor. Both teams played @ ATL last night, with Hawks winning by 6. The average lead though was only +0.4 ATL, indicating a very close game. With Vucevic returning, you have to give the edge to Orlando at home right? Yesterday’s game was set at -9 ATL, so there’s a 6-point adjustment today for home-field. That’s actually an accurate adjustment, as I would have expected the bookmakers to shade a bit towards the Hawks, and set this line at about -4 / -5. Clearly they believe that Orlando has a strong shot in this game. I’m not so sure though. Vucevic is a good player but he’s not a superstar. Atlanta shot 37% from the field yesterday but that could be more from having an ‘off’ night than due to Orlando actually shutting them down. Atlanta had 24 assists on their 29 made FG’s, they only turned the ball over 12 times, and they got to the FT-line 11 more times than Orlando. These are all excellent indicators for an efficient offensive game, but unfortunately the shooting was just simply off. If ATL shot closer to their season-average yesterday, that game would have been a blowout. Tonight’s line feels short to me.
Lean: ATL -3
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LAC @ MIL +5.5
The Clippers are on a b2b here and playing their 3rd game in 4 nights, all on the road. Milwaukee has had 3 full days off and should be well rested for this one. The spread is a bit low which is due to the fatigue factor discrepancy between the two teams. Milwaukee is 7-3 ATS at home and 10-7 ATS as an underdog, but the Clippers are off a loss last night and will be looking to bounce back. Bad physical spot for LA but not enough points to back the home dog either from my perspective.
PASS
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MEM @ PHI +10
This is an interesting spot for Memphis. They played an absolute grinder last night, winning in double-OT against the Hornets. Gasol, Randolph, Conley, and Allen all played big minutes and now must go on the road to take on the lowly Sixers. In a few days, Memphis is hosting the Warriors, the playing @ SAS, hosting Chicago, and then @ CLE a few days later. This could be a potential ‘look ahead’ spot for them, and it’s hard to expect Memphis to go ‘all out’ against the Sixers after such a tough game last night. I’m not backing this pathetic Sixers team either, but Memphis isn’t as ‘automatic’ as they might look at the first glance.
PASS
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DEN @ HOU -7.5
He’s back!! Well, probably, as he is listed as ‘probable’. Dwight Howard should rejoin the Rockets tonight, providing a big boost. Of course I’m wondering if there will be an adjustment period. Houston played without him for so long and has been very successful actually. They’ve lost the first game without him, but since then have gone 8-2 with victories against teams like DAL, MEM, and PHX. Their two losses in that span came against LAC and GSW, two of the very best teams in the league. Pretty impressive actually, considering the fact that Houston was also without Beverly for a number of those games and continues to be without Jones. The offense has strictly flown through Harden and he’s been absolutely dominant. Now, Rockets must adjust again and get Howard involved. We’ll see if there’s an adjustment of sorts. Houston’s next game is @ Denver on 12/17, so they’ll have plenty of time to work things out in practice and depending on the outcome of today’s game, the 12/17 game could be a better spot to back the Rockets. Ideally, Denver wins tonight, and Houston will have 3 days to practice and work on making adjustments for the rematch. Keep an eye on the outcome of this one.
PASS
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DET @ SAC -5.5
Detroit finally unleashed its size on an opponent, which resulted in them breaking their losing streak and getting a much needed win. They outrebounded Phoenix 47 to 37, scored 60 points in the paint, and got to the FT line 27 times. Drummond was a monster, shooting 10 for 14 for 23 points and grabbing 14 rebounds. And of course Meeks provided some depth and scored in double-figures in his first game with the team. Now they’ll face another under-sized squad in Sacramento who will be without Cousins once again. Thompson (6’11, but has a slim build), Evans (6’8), Landry (6’9), and Williams (6’8) are all at a disadvantage against this big Detroit front-court. And even with Cousins in there, Sacramento’s rim-protection is terrible. They allow teams to shoot 69% within 3-feet of the basket, the WORST mark in the NBA. When you add a shooter like Meeks to the mix who can stretch the floor, that should provide more room in the paint for Detroit’s bigs to take advantage off and I expect them to have a big advantage in the paint tonight. Pistons are on a b2b, but they have had 2-days off prior to yesterday’s game. Besides, no one played more than 30 minutes last night, so I doubt fatigue will be an issue. Without Cousins, Kings are over-valued at the current number.
Lean: DET +5.5