To all pregamers: Please help me out with a possible futures bet plan of action. The plan involves the Eastern conference only.
I have placed a small wager (one unit each) on both the Nets at 18/1 and the Bulls at 25/1 to win the Eastern Conference Finals. I think one of these two teams will reach the Eastern Conference Finals against the Miami Heat. At that point, I would hedge to ensure an equal profit no matter the result.
There are too many possible playoff matchup scenarios to rule anything out, but my futures bets rely almost exclusively on one outcome: That the Indiana Pacers do not reach the Eastern Conference Finals. Regardless of their #1 seed, I do NOT like the Pacers at all right now. They peaked at the start of the season winning 16 of their first 17 games. But now four of their starting five players are slumping. George is clearly negatively affected from off the court issues, Hibbert looks physically exhausted, Stephenson has not yet emotionally matured, and Hill seems out of touch with his teammates as the point guard. Losing Danny Granger as the "glue guy" may have been a bigger blow to this team than most would have assumed. While the Pacers should get by the Hawks, I strongly believe that either the Nets or the Bulls will knock them off in the second round. It may not "sound right" at first, but think about how the teams have played lately. SU records since March 1st: Pacers are 11-13 (.458), Nets are 17-8 (.680), and the Bulls are 16-7 (.696). Those records cannot be ignored.
It is worth noting that I have no faith in the Raptors as they have had a weak strength of schedule these last two months with few quality wins. They got the job done in the regular season, but I am not giving them much respect in the playoffs, and neither is Las Vegas. Also, don't think for a second that the Heat are invincible. Dwayne Wade is not 100%, they have lost five of their last seven, and they are 0-4 on the season against the Nets. Anything could happen in this conference, and while I think Miami will get to the finals, it is certainly not a guarantee.
Two small wagers with the opportunity for a good chunk of profit. My questions for you all include: Is this a good plan? Any disagreements? Have I missed anything? Any additional recommendations?