Dallas Mavericks (49-32, 23-17 away) @ Memphis Grizzlies -3 (49-32, 26-14 home)
I recommend a play on the Memphis Grizzlies minus the points (-3) in the NBA tonight. Going back to the well tonight by taking the Grizzlies again. I really like them in this spot against the Dallas Mavericks, in a game where the winner will lock up the #7 seed in the Western Conference Playoffs. The winner of this game will take on the #2 seed Oklahoma City Thunder in the first round of the playoffs and the loser will take on the #1 seed San Antonio Spurs in the first round. These teams played three times already this year with Dallas sweeping all three meetings, and actually winning each game pretty comfortably. However, if we take a closer look at those games, Dallas beat the Griz one game when Marc Gasol did not play and two games when Mike Conley did not play and the first game was the third game of the year. Not having those two key players was a major negative impact for the Griz and were the main reasons they lost earlier in the year. The Grizzlies aren’t the best scoring team in the league, so when their point guard does not play, their offense tends to become stagnant and they can not find their shots on a consistent basis. Also earlier in the year when they played, Memphis was still going through a transition period, after losing their coach, Lionel Hollins, who led them to Western Conference Finals the year before, they had to adjust to the new head coaches style of play, and this led to some defeats early in the year that quite honestly, should not have happened. The Grizzlies started to get their shit together around the All Star break and really have been playing some great basketball over the last couple of months. They are 22-10 since February 9th, which is good for the third best record in the Western Conference in that span. This team also plays extremely well when healthy and especially when both Zach Randolph and Marc Gasol start, as they are a fantastic 39-18 when both of these big men are on the floor. Memphis has been playing playoff type games since February which is shown by this quote by electrifying point guard, Mike Conley. “We’ve needed every game basically since February it seems like,” Conley said. “We’ve played every game like a playoff game. It’s been fun to be part of a group that comes in and stays focused and to get back in the playoffs.” The Grizzlies are also looking to set a single season franchise record with their 14th straight home win tonight.
Another angle I am looking at in tonights game is how well each team matches up with their potential playoff opponent. The way I see things is that Dallas does not want to see Oklahoma City in the first round, with all their athletes, this is a terrible match up for the Mavs. The Mavs are an aging team that is a little bit slower on the perimeter, this will make it real tough to guard Russell Westbrook and Kevin Durant off the dribble and Serge Ibaka up front. I actually think the Mavs match up much better with the Spurs because the style of play by the Spurs is one that the Mavs can deal with and be able to prolong the series with. I think OKC runs the Mavs right out of the building and wins that series in 5 games if they played. I think the Spurs are the best team in basketball but basketball is a game of match ups and the Mavs know they match up much better with San Antonio than with OKC. On the other hand, I think Memphis really wants to play OKC in the first round and does not want to play the Spurs. Memphis is a defensive minded ball club that has quick and defensive minded guys on their perimeter in Mike Conley and Tony Allen, and are able to stack the box with their bigs, Z BO and Gasol, to clog the lane to stop guys from getting to the rack with ease, something Russell Westbrook and Kevin Durant love to do. Memphis prides itself on their individual 1 on 1 defensive ability and will be able to match up 1 on 1 vs OKC’s perimeter athletes and will make OKC work hard for every basket. I do not think Memphis matches up as well with the Spurs because the Spurs style is a lot less 1 on 1 driving to the basket, it’s much more passing the ball and moving and cutting and screening and back screening and finding the open man for the open shot. Memphis individual players talents will be less important vs the Spurs and their team defense (which is also very good) will be the deciding factor. Memphis also beat OKC last year in the playoffs (OKC was minus Russell Westbrook) so I think they have the confidence they can do it again this year. So in a way, it would work out in both teams best interest if the Grizzlies won tonight and locked up the #7 seed leaving the Mavericks to the #8 seed. I expect a playoff type atmosphere tonight, with the Grindhouse bumping, and I look for the Grizzlies to control the game from the tip with their defense, rebounding and timely hooping to get their 14th straight win on their home floor locking up the #7 seed in the Western Conference, which is why I am making the Memphis Grizzlies minus the points (-3) my NBA Playoff Implication Play of the Day.
Grizzlies 97 Mavericks 92