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Free Play from Dr M.

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Thread Starter Free Play from Dr M.
Dr. Ed Meyer
Joined: 06/21/2012
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Orlando + over NEW ORLEANS – The pocket-mouths have revenge here, as the Magic hammered them 110-90 as a home dog very early in the season. However, New Orleans is a poor 0-7 ATS (-9.00 ppg) when seeking same-season revenge for a loss as a favorite.

Yes, the Pelicans shot very well in their last game, shooting 50.7% from the field and 22-of-24 from the free-throw line (91.7%) in Detroit. However, this is actually a play-against indicator. New Orleans is 0-9 ATS (-7.39 ppg) at home with rest after a game on the road in which they shot at least 50% from the field and at least 85% from the free-throw line.

Also, New Orleans is 0-6 ATS (-10.00 ppg) as a rested home favorite off a road win in which they trailed at the end of the third quarter.

With the Magic a perfect 11-0 ATS (11.50 ppg) after a win at home in which their opponent shot at least ten three-pointers and made at least half of them, we’ll consider grabbing the points.

Dr M.

Dr. Ed Meyer *Physics PhD (Case Western Reserve) *Featured in New Yorker: “Brainiacs Build Money Machine!” *Certified SDQL Master!

NSchmit85
Joined: 02/16/2011
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Waterboy
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How do the Magic fare on Sunday night games when the temperature is above 52 degrees in the state of Louisiana?

Dr. Ed Meyer
Joined: 06/21/2012
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Are you familiar with the phrase "Pearls before swine?"

Dr M.  

Dr. Ed Meyer *Physics PhD (Case Western Reserve) *Featured in New Yorker: “Brainiacs Build Money Machine!” *Certified SDQL Master!

sleepyj
Joined: 11/01/2012
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Thanks Dr. Ed...much appreciated...nice write-up

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trajames
Joined: 12/25/2011
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Are you familiar with the phrase, "What does that have to do with the price of tea in China?".

GoHawkeyes
Joined: 12/21/2010
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Wow those really are the goofiest situations I've seen. Like what rationale could you possibly have for adding 85% ft shooting as a data point. New Orleans may fail to cover this game, but if they do it won't be because they shot well from the line last game.

trajames
Joined: 12/25/2011
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What is the price of tea in China these days anyways?

Dr. Ed Meyer
Joined: 06/21/2012
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GoHawkeyes

Wow those really are the goofiest situations I've seen. Like what rationale could you possibly have for adding 85% ft shooting as a data point. New Orleans may fail to cover this game, but if they do it won't be because they shot well from the line last game.

It's interesting to me that you use the "goofiest" and then go on make a declarative statement that "if they do it won't be because they shot well from the line last game." as if you know what the hell you are talking about.

I would think someone who was intelligent and was interested in becoming a better handicapper might think, "Hmm.  Those are unusual handicapping parameters.  I wonder if them have any validity.  This is an interesting approach."

If you have an intelligent question to ask, I would be happy to address it, but your post does nothing but reveal your ignorance and inabiltiy to learn.

In fact, free throw shooting percentage is a very useful handicapping parameter.  It is a good barometer of a team's mental state AND it is not already factored into the line -- thus giving us full line value.

Here is a question to the pregame community: Do you think that it affects a team's mental state if they go 10-of-21 from the free throw line and lose by two points?

Dr M.

Dr. Ed Meyer *Physics PhD (Case Western Reserve) *Featured in New Yorker: “Brainiacs Build Money Machine!” *Certified SDQL Master!

TMANT1544
Joined: 12/02/2013
Posts: 2095
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ear muffs to the haters Dr... your work speaks for itself.  big fan of yours and all your analysis in the NBA.. keep rollin along

SportWinsLossesTiesWin %$ Won
CFB159162.50514.00
NFL3625359.02740.00
GoHawkeyes
Joined: 12/21/2010
Posts: 82
College Recruit
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You're right, my previous post was not productive.

Thank you for giving me the opportunity to ask a productive question.

Can you please explain to me how New Orleans good free throw shooting last game creates value on the Magic tonight?  Ive never considered this angle and I'm interested to learn about it.

Thanks in advance for your answer.

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