Conference play is obviously a different animal, so something I do put a lot of stock in is what happened last year, or what has happened the last few years. For example, last year Miami embarrassed North Carolina in South Florida, beat them in Chapel Hill, and beat them in the ACC Title game. So, I like North Carolina to win big tonight, in spite of their recent BS loss at Wake, which I should have seen coming. To me that was a situational loss since IMO they were looking ahead to this game. Even if some of the players are gone, the coaches are not. A lot of my bets are situational in nature, the stats notwithstanding. When I do use strictly stats, I just have a few "do's" and don'ts".
If a team doesn't get to the line with much regularity AND doesn't shoot near 70% from the line, I have a tough time backing them to cover short spreads, say 5-8, simply because of all the late fouling and the trust factor. I do not like teams that rely heavily on the three point shot on the road. Just unfamiliarity can cause shooting woes. When I look at totals, something that has always been very good to me, we all know the pace is important and the home team generally dictates. Since that's obviously factored into the line, I look at turnovers/pace a LOT. For example, if there's two fast paced teams and a fashionably high total, BUT they both create turnovers and neither is particularly good from the line, I look hard at the under, assuming that there will be more wasted possessions. The converse is obviously true.