Boston Celtics - Under 28 3 Units /pregame-forums/f/10/t/739073.aspx
Miami – Under 61 3 Units
Zeeman had a great breakdown of teams going for their third title in a row coming up short of 62 wins. A fairly simple play here: the Heat are one of the oldest teams in the league and will be taking everyone’s best shot after appearing in the NBA Finals for 3 consecutive seasons, winning the last two. Dwayne Wade is well into the second half of his career, I can’t see him gearing up and welcoming the challenge of taking every team’s best shot every night. He was already in cruise control for parts of last season. Old team after consecutive finals. They’ve got nothing to prove. I’m thinking 55-58 wins.
Sacramento Over 32 2 units
- This team is young, athletic, has a lot of depth, talent, and looks to be playing really hard this year under new Head Coach Mike Malone. Malone was the defensive strategist for the Golden State Warriors last season. The Kings were a horrible defensive team last year and I think he will make a huge difference. From what I’ve seen they are going to give strong defensive efforts on a nightly basis this season and they certainly have the athleticism to make things difficult for opponents. Tyreke Evans is gone and I think they will play better team ball without him. Isaiah Thomas and Greivis Vazquez will be a good point guard duo. Like a lot of teams, SacTown can have a solid home court/crowd when playing well. I say they get into the mid 30’s.
San Antonio Over 55 - 1 Unit
The best coach, best point guard, and most quality depth in the league. The perception of the Spurs is that they are old, but that is really centered on Duncan and Ginobli. The Spurs won 58 games last year while getting these two plenty of rest, and lost their last three games of the season having the #1 seed under control. I also expect Danny Green and Kawhi Leonard to continue to improve, and Belinelli is in the prime of his career and should fit in really well. Popp has mastered the regular season. This team was a bounce of the ball away from winning the title last season. I do have concerns about a hangover the way it ended last year but they are still really good and I think have enough depth to get over 55.
Memphis Over 50.5 1 Unit
It’s pretty the much the same team that won 56 last season and had the best defense in the league. They signed Mike Miller, and have the best front court depth in the NBA with Zack Randolph, Marc Gasol starting, Ed Davis and the signing of Kosta Koufas backing them up. Gasol and Conley are the keys and they are still in their primes. They have a new coach, David Joerger, but I don’t think this is a big deal because he was on the sidelines last year and is familiar with the team. I like that teams are forced to make an adjustment to Memphis with their physical style and reliance on scoring Bigs, forcing the opposition to have their rebounding legs for every game. We are getting 5.5 less wins to work with, with a slightly more talented team than last year. I think they get over 50. Only reason it is a 1 unit bet for me is injury concerns with their grinding style.
Thoughts/comments welcome. GL to everyone this season