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Thread Starter Andre Gomes NBA Sunday Card
andre gomes
Joined: 07/03/2007
Posts: 4921
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November 26th Daily Message:


The NBA continued yesterday and we are coming from a 3-3 day. In less than a month, we have already achieved a profit of +13.10 units on 3-4-5 Money Management System! I'm also hitting about 54% of my NBA Plays! On the NFL, we are coming from a 2-5 day, with two very close losses on Denver (2 points) and in the Over of the JAC/TEN game (1,5 points).

So, for today, we have 8 games on the NBA. We also have the NFL Week 12 Monday Night Football, with Carolina playing at Philadelphia!

Don't forget the long-term NBA packages are already available! Stay tuned especially on my twitter @gomescapper for news about the release of plays during the day!



Yesterday's Recap:

NFL Week 12 - 227 Denver Broncos @ 228 Kansas City Chiefs

Projected Line: Denver by 14 points

This should be an absolute no contest. Kansas City has been turning the ball over at a ridiculous rate this season and while facing one of the best defenses in the football today, I expect that to happen once again today. But that's just one of the problems that the Chiefs will have to face on their offense. Brady Quinn is back at the starting quarterback position, but he has been completely non-effective when he played this season and I really don't expect him to do anything against a quite decent pass defense of the Broncos, a team that also has the best pass rushing in the league to put a lot on pressure on Quinn today. The only positive aspect of the Chiefs' offense has been their running game, with Jamaal Charles having a decent season, however the Broncos are #2 in the league in rushing yards allowed per carry with just 3.5 yards allowed. Therefore, I don't see how the poor offense of Kansas City will be able to outplay a great Broncos defense that has a good pass defense, a great run defense and an excellent pass rush. 

And then, on the other side of the football, there's Peyton Manning having one of the best seasons of his career. He has been excellent this season and he will absolutely pound the Chiefs secondary that is #31 in yards allowed per pass attempt and dead last in QB rating allowed this season. Denver has also a great offensive line to protect Manning and he will simply choose the right receiver to pound the Chiefs today over and over again. Willis McGahee is now in the injury reserve, but the Chiefs' run defense is also quite mediocre (#27 with 4.5 rushing yards allowed per carry), so I wouldn't be surprised if rookie Ronnie Hillman is able to give a good support to the Broncos passing game on the running department. 

With Denver shutting down the Chiefs offense, while Peyton Manning pounds them on the other side of the field, I can only see a complete blowout of the Broncos today. I believe the line should have been posted at least at the two touchdowns mark, so I'll be taking Denver in here. 

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 227 Denver Broncos (-10) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

Final Score: Denver 17 Kansas City 9



NFL Week 12 - 229 Tennessee Titans @ 230 Jacksonville Jaguars

Projected Line: 48 points

Most of the recent games between these two teams have been low scoring affairs. However, these two teams are clearly defending worse than they were over the past few seasons and so, I expect this game to actually have a good offensive production. Jake Locker came back very well in Miami with a good performance and he is coming from a bye week fully ready to pound the Jaguars' defense that is very far from the top 5 defense they were last season. We are talking about a pass defense that is just #24 in completion percentage allowed, #24 in yards allowed per attempt, #22 in QB rating allowed and #27 in third down conversion allowed, so Jacksonville's secondary is very far from being impressive this season. Therefore, I expect Jake Locker to explore that today. Chris Johnson has been in much better form lately and he seems to be back at a decent level. Tennessee is #5 in the league on rushing yards per carry with 4.8 yards and against an average Jaguars' run defense (#16 with 4.2 yards allowed per carry), I expect Chris Johnson to be able to have another positive game today.

On the other hand, with Blaine Gabbert out for the season, Chad Henne is now the starting quarterback and I believe he is actually an upgrade over Gabbert. Henne knows that if he plays well in the following games, he will be the Jags' starting quarterback next season and the truth is that he played very well in Houston last week. He has a very favorable matchup over the terrible Titans secondary today that is dead last in completion percentage allowed, #27 in yards allowed per pass attempt, #29 in QB rating allowed and #28 in third down conversion allowed. Therefore, I believe Chad Henne should have a good game today, with the help of rookie WR Justin Blackmon, who is certainly very confident right now, after his excellent performance last week in Houston. Also WR Cecil Shorts has been in very good form this season, so I believe Chad Henne with the help of two in-form receivers will pound the Titans' secondary today.

I expect a rested Tennessee to pound Jacksonville's defense with both their passing and running game, while Jacksonville should also put some points on the board with a very motivated Chad Henne having two in-form receivers to pound the Titans' poor secondary. Therefore, I see a lot of value on this relatively low totals line and so, I'll be taking the Over in here.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 229/230 Over 44,5 @ -110 / 1.91 on 5Dimes

Final Score: Tennessee 19 Jacksonville 24



NFL Week 12 - 233 Atlanta Falcons @ 234 Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Projected Line: Tampa Bay by 3 points

Atlanta has been getting away with the win in several close games, but I believe they will definitely struggle today against a Buccaneers team that is carrying a lot of momentum right now. Matt Ryan is coming from a horrible game against Arizona, where he threw five interceptions, but it's clear that he has a good matchup today against a Buccaneers' secondary that is indeed quite poor. They are #26 in completion percentage allowed, #30 in yards allowed per pass attempt and #24 in third down conversion allowed. However, they have intercepted the opposing quarterback 15 times this season and they have a good red zone defense, as they are currently ranked #9 on this area. With Atlanta being just #12 on red zone offense, I wouldn't be surprised if the Buccaneers are able to force the Falcons to settle for field goals on some of their trips for the red zone today, especially when Tampa Bay has the best run defense in the league and Michael Turner has been an ultra disappointment this season. 

But where I expect the Falcons to struggle big time today is on their defense. If Josh Freeman has a good matchup against the Falcons' secondary that is just average (but poor on the red zone, as they are ranked #21 on the red zone, while Tampa Bay is #4 on red zone offense), it's on the running game that the Buccaneers should be able to pound Atlanta the whole game. Rookie RB Doug Martin has been outstanding this season and thanks to him, Tampa Bay is #6 in the league on rushing yards per carry with 4.7 yards. They will be facing a very poor run defense of the Falcons that is allowing 5.0 rushing yards per carry (#30), so there is a complete mismatch in here favoring Tampa Bay and their running game, something that will also be very important to manage a lead down the stretch. 

Atlanta has been winning a lot of close games this season due to their good play down the stretch, but Tampa Bay is carrying a lot of momentum right now and I believe the mismatch they will have on the running game will be enough for them to sneak a very good win over the Falcons, especially when their passing game is more assertive than Atlanta's (less interceptions, better red zone efficiency). Therefore, I'll be taking Tampa Bay today.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 234 Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+2) @ -110 / 1.91 on 5Dimes

Final Score: Atlanta 24 Tampa Bay 23



NFL Week 12 - 235 Seattle Seahawks @ 236 Miami Dolphins

Projected Line: 34 points

I don't see either team having a good offensive performance today. Seattle is coming from a bye week and while Russell Wilson has been having an interesting rookie season, he has been struggling on the road, as he is averaging a QB rating of 122.0 in home games, but just 65.8 on road games! Things won't get any easier for him today, as Miami has a good pass defense, as they are ranked #6 in completion percentage allowed, #13 in yards allowed per pass attempt, #9 in QB rating allowed, #4 in third down conversion allowed and #2 in red zone defense! So, it will up to Marshawn Lynch to carry the team's offense today, however the Seahawks' running game hasn't been very effective this season (#13 with 4.3 rushing yards per carry), while Miami's run defense has been good (even with some regression lately) with 3.8 yards allowed per carry (#4 in the league). So, I expect a tough game for Seattle's offense today.

But it won't be any easier for Miami's offense. Ryan Tannehill has been struggling and he will be facing a good and rested Seattle pass defense that is #7 in completion percentage allowed, #3 in yards allowed per pass attempt, #3 in QB rating allowed and #4 in  red zone defense! The Seahawks' pass rush is also quite good and they will pressure Ryan Tannehill a lot as well. The problem for Miami is that their running game isn't any better, as they are just #28 in the league with 3.6 yards per carry. Seattle's run defense is average, but it is certainly good enough to handle the poorly effective running game of the Dolphins.

I believe both teams will definitely struggle on offense today, as their offenses aren't very good, while both defenses have the right tools to stop them. I expect a very low scoring game in here and so, I'll be taking the Under.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 235/236 Under 38 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

Final Score: Seattle 21 Miami 24



NFL Week 12 - 241 St Louis Rams @ 242 Arizona Cardinals

Projected Line: 33 points

This is kind of game where I don't see how points will actually be scored today. Arizona will start their rookie Ryan Lindley, who is normally their third quarterback. He played most of last week's game in Atlanta, after John Skelton was benched during the first quarter and all he did during the game was pretty much nothing. St Louis has an average pass defense and a good pass rush to pound Arizona's horrible offensive line, so I just don't see how Lindley will be able to have any kind of production today. Then, the Cardinals' running game continues to be full of injuries (LaRod Stephens-Howling is banged up with a ribs injury, while Beanie Wells is returning this week, but a very limited capacity) and with very little effectiveness (#29 with 3.6 rushing yards per carry). St Louis has a decent run defense (#15 with 4.1 rushing yards allowed per carry) and they won't have problems in stopping the Cardinals' running game as well.

On the other side, Sam Bradford has been having a decent season actually, but he will be facing one of the best pass defenses in the league today. Arizona is #4 in completion percentage allowed, #11 in yards allowed per pass attempt, #2 in QB rating allowed, #7 in third down conversion allowed and #8 in red zone defense! Therefore, I don't believe the Rams' passing game will have a good game today, especially with their best receiver Danny Amendola out of today's game with a foot injury. St Louis has been quite decent on their running game lately and they are #10 in the league with 4.4 rushing yards per carry. However, Arizona's run defense is #11 in the league with 4.0 rushing yards allowed per carry and I believe they will be able to limit both Stephen Jackson and Daryl Richardson today as well.

I believe both offenses will struggle today, as Arizona's offense is a mess and St Louis' defense is good enough to limit them, while the Rams' offense has been decent actually, but Arizona's defense is playing extremely well this season. Therefore, I expect a very low scoring game in here and so, I'll be taking the Under on this contest.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 241/242 Under 36,5 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

Final Score: St Louis 31 Arizona 17



NFL Week 12 - 243 Green Bay Packers @ 244 New York Giants

Projected Line: Green Bay by 1 point

I just don't see a reason why the Giants should be favored on this contest. First of all, this is a massive revenge game for Green Bay, after having lost at home against the Giants in last year's playoffs. Aaron Rodgers is playing very well once again, he leads the league in QB rating, while he is also #5 in completion percentage and #11 in yards per pass attempt. The Packers are #8 in third down conversion and #2 in red zone offense, so their offense is also being clutch this season. They will be facing a Giants' secondary that hasn't been impressive this season, as they are just #22 in completion percentage allowed, #29 in yards allowed per pass attempt, #13 in QB rating allowed, #16 in third down conversion allowed and #15 in red zone defense. Most of the Giants' success on defense was coming from their great pass rush, but the truth is that their pass rush is being just average this season with 25 sacks in 11 games (#13 in the league). It's a fact that Green Bay's offensive line has been struggling this season, but I just don't see the Giants having a good enough pass rush tonight that makes Aaron Rodgers really struggle. With the Giants having a poor run defense (#25 with 4.4 rushing yards allowed per carry), Aaron Rodgers should be able to receive some support from the running game and so, I expect Green Bay to have a decent offensive game today.

But if there's a big difference between last season's and this season's matchup between these two teams is in how improved the Packers' defense is this season in comparison to last season's. While Green Bay's defense was a complete mess last season, they are now a top 10 defense in the league. Not only the Packers have one of the best pass rushing units in the league, as they have a good pass defense by being #3 in completion percentage allowed, #10 in yards allowed per pass attempt, #6 in QB rating allowed and #8 in third down conversion allowed! They will be facing a dangerous Giants' passing game tonight, but with Eli Manning struggling so much over the last few weeks, I just don't see the Giants having a great offensive game tonight. Ahmad Bradshaw has been banged up with a foot injury and even though the Giants' running game is #8 in the league with 4.4 rushing yards per carry, the Packers also have a decent run defense by being ranked #12 with 4.1 rushing yards allowed per carry! Therefore, I believe the Packers' defense will show up today and allow much less points than the 37 points they allowed to the Giants in last year's playoffs. 

I believe Green Bay's defensive improvement will allow them to limit the Giants' offense today, while Aaron Rodgers will have a decent game tonight, as the Giants' pass rush is very far right now from the level they showed in last year's playoffs. I see the Packers as clearly the better team of the two and with them having revenge on their minds, I expect them to eventually come up on top of a very close game. I'm taking Green Bay tonight.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 243 Green Bay Packers (+3) @ -120 / 1.83 on Bookmaker

Final Score: Green Bay 10 NY Giants 38



2-Team 6,5pts Teaser:

NFL Week 12 - 221 Oakland Raiders @ 222 Cincinnati Bengals
NFL Week 12 - 231 Minnesota Vikings @ 232 Chicago Bears

I believe the Bengals won't have any problems in beating the lowly Raiders today. Cincinnati is coming from two good wins against the Giants and the Chiefs and they won't have problems in pounding the poor Raiders defense, especially with their passing game. On the other end, Carson Palmer might have a decent game today, but with no running game to support Oakland's passing game and with the Bengals' great pass rush putting Palmer in a lot of pressure today, I expect Palmer to turn the ball over today a couple of times. Cincinnati has edges on almost every department of this game and therefore, I expect them to have a very easy win today.

Minnesota is a dangerous team with Adrian Peterson in such great form, but Chicago is coming from a terrible game at San Francisco and I expect them to have a defensive bounce back today. The Bears have been amazing in takeaways this season and Christian Ponder and his inconsistent play is a perfect target to become another victim of the Bears' super aggressive defense. With Percy Harvin out of today's game, Chicago won't have problems in shutting down the Vikings' passing game, something that will allow to concentrate most of their focus on Adrian Peterson, limiting his effectiveness in the process. On the other hand, with Jay Cutler back, Chicago will have some production coming from their passing game and with the help of some good defensive play, the Bears shouldn't have problems in taking out the Vikings at home on a very strong bounce back spot for them.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 222 Cincinnati Bengals (-3,5) x 232 Chicago Bears (-1) @ -110 / 1.91 on 5Dimes

Final Score: OAK 10 CIN 34 / MIN 10 CHI 28



NBA - 501 San Antonio Spurs @ 502 Toronto Raptors

Projected Line: San Antonio by 3 points

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 502 Toronto Raptors (+6) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

Final Score: San Antonio 111 Toronto 106



NBA - 503 Detroit Pistons @ 504 New York Knicks

Projected Line: 186 points

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 503/504 Under 190 @ -110 / 1.91 on Betonline

Final Score: Detroit 100 NY Knicks 121



NBA - 505 Portland Trailblazers @ 506 Brooklyn Nets

Projected Line: 198 points

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 505/506 Over 193 @ -110 / 1.91 in Bookmaker

Final Score: Portland 85 Brooklyn 98



NBA - 507 Phoenix Suns @ 508 Philadelphia 76ers

Projected Line: 190 points

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 507/508 Under 194,5 @ -110 / 1.91 on 5 Dimes

Final Score: Phoenix 101 Philadelphia 104



NBA - 509 Boston Celtics @ 510 Orlando Magic

Projected Line: 196 points

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 509/510 Over 191 @ -110 / 1.91 on Betonline

Final Score: Boston 116 Orlando 110



NBA - 511 New Orleans Hornets @ 512 Denver Nuggets

Projected Line: Denver by 13 points

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 512 Denver Nuggets (-10) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

Final Score: New Orleans 84 Denver 102

Andre Gomes: Best Bets | Free Picks | Blogs
Beyond the same-old-handicapping
Twitter: @Gomescapper

andre gomes
Joined: 07/03/2007
Posts: 4921
All Pro
Top 150 Contributor

NBA 11/25 Advanced Stats Numbers:


San Antonio at Toronto

Advanced Stats

4 Factors

Teams

1

2

3

4

OT

T

PACE

Offense

EFG%

TOR

ORR

FTR

SA

24

25

20

19

23

111

92.53

99.37

0.47

9.73

13.73

14.56

TOR

25

24

21

18

18

106

 

94.73

0.39

9.73

27.42

18.18

Detroit at New York

Advanced Stats

4 Factors

Teams

1

2

3

4

T

PACE

Offense

EFG%

TOR

ORR

FTR

DET

22

22

28

28

100

91.83

106.64

0.53

18.57

27.03

21.79

NY

32

32

22

35

121

 

134.60

0.59

10.61

26.32

35.44

Portland at Brooklyn

Advanced Stats

4 Factors

Teams

1

2

3

4

T

PACE

Offense

EFG%

TOR

ORR

FTR

POR

27

23

20

15

85

90.70

95.49

0.48

17.70

22.50

12.82

BK

25

21

24

28

98

 

106.07

0.45

10.60

40.48

16.30

Phoenix at Philadelphia

Advanced Stats

4 Factors

Teams

1

2

3

4

T

PACE

Offense

EFG%

TOR

ORR

FTR

PHO

20

21

34

26

101

90.20

110.98

0.49

11.56

25.00

22.89

PHI

23

23

34

24

104

 

116.34

0.54

8.07

15.79

20.99

Boston at Orlando

Advanced Stats

4 Factors

Teams

1

2

3

4

OT

T

PACE

Offense

EFG%

TOR

ORR

FTR

BOS

28

30

22

22

14

116

95.08

108.51

0.48

11.69

34.69

14.29

ORL

22

26

34

20

8

110

 

106.73

0.52

16.19

22.73

18.89

New Orleans at Denver

Advanced Stats

4 Factors

Teams

1

2

3

4

T

PACE

Offense

EFG%

TOR

ORR

FTR

NO

23

18

20

23

84

87.86

94.29

0.42

12.99

31.91

14.12

DEN

26

25

32

19

102

 

117.74

0.57

15.11

26.47

22.67

 

Andre Gomes: Best Bets | Free Picks | Blogs
Beyond the same-old-handicapping
Twitter: @Gomescapper

andre gomes
Joined: 07/03/2007
Posts: 4921
All Pro
Top 150 Contributor

NOTE: Tonight's NBA Package is now fully uploaded: 7 Plays (6 Premium Plays + 1 Free Premium Play) for today!

Good luck everybody! Yes

Andre Gomes: Best Bets | Free Picks | Blogs
Beyond the same-old-handicapping
Twitter: @Gomescapper

andre gomes
Joined: 07/03/2007
Posts: 4921
All Pro
Top 150 Contributor

Today's NBA Free Premium Play:

NBA - 701 San Antonio Spurs @ 702 Washington Wizards

Projected Line: San Antonio by 3 points

We have a game tonight between the winless Wizards and the top team of San Antonio. However, I believe the terrible spot of the Spurs can't be overlooked. For the second game in a row, San Antonio was completely outrebounded by having grabbed just 39.33% and 43.15% on their last two games! This is the problem of playing with a 3-guards lineup. Yesterday, San Antonio would have lost at Toronto if it wasn't for a ridiculous game by Andrea Bargnani. However, the remaining frontcourt players of the Raptors had great games with Ed Davis shooting 7-11 FG and Jonas Valanciunas 9-13 FG. 

Yesterday's double overtime game forced a big effort from three starters: Tim Duncan played 41 minutes, Tony Parker 46 minutes and Danny Green 48 minutes! Gregg Popovich doesn't feel every comfortable with his bench right now and this is why Matt Bonner played just 6 minutes and Patty Mills 5 minutes yesterday! Tim Duncan's energy will be questionable at least and even though Washington's identity isn't defined yet, they will use their best lineup in my opinion, with Emeka Okafor, Kevin Seraphin, Trevor Ariza, Bradley Beal and A.J. Price.

Unlike San Antonio, Washington dominated the boards on their last two games by grabbing 60.45% and 60.73% of the rebounds. I believe Washington will have clear edges tonight in terms of rebounds and energy and so, the Wizards should be able to fight off San Antonio tonight, even though the Spurs have a clear edge in terms of identity and talent. I expect a tight game tonight and so, I'll be taking Washington in here.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 702 Washington Wizards (+7) @ -115 / 1.87 on Bovada

Andre Gomes: Best Bets | Free Picks | Blogs
Beyond the same-old-handicapping
Twitter: @Gomescapper

andre gomes
Joined: 07/03/2007
Posts: 4921
All Pro
Top 150 Contributor

November 27th Daily Message:


The NBA continued yesterday and we are coming from a poor 2-5 day. We have regressed a bit from our great start of NBA season, but I expect to bounce back big time in the following days to get back into our winning road! On the NFL, we are coming from a great win with Carolina on Monday Night Football.

So, for today, we have 5 games on the NBA. I'll be also recapping NFL Week 12 today and tomorrow, in order to prepare a great NFL Week 13!

Don't forget the long-term NBA packages are already available! Stay tuned especially on my twitter @gomescapper for news about the release of plays during the day!



Yesterday's Recap:

NBA - 701 San Antonio Spurs @ 702 Washington Wizards

Projected Line: San Antonio by 3 points

We have a game tonight between the winless Wizards and the top team of San Antonio. However, I believe the terrible spot of the Spurs can't be overlooked. For the second game in a row, San Antonio was completely outrebounded by having grabbed just 39.33% and 43.15% on their last two games! This is the problem of playing with a 3-guards lineup. Yesterday, San Antonio would have lost at Toronto if it wasn't for a ridiculous game by Andrea Bargnani. However, the remaining frontcourt players of the Raptors had great games with Ed Davis shooting 7-11 FG and Jonas Valanciunas 9-13 FG. 

Yesterday's double overtime game forced a big effort from three starters: Tim Duncan played 41 minutes, Tony Parker 46 minutes and Danny Green 48 minutes! Gregg Popovich doesn't feel every comfortable with his bench right now and this is why Matt Bonner played just 6 minutes and Patty Mills 5 minutes yesterday! Tim Duncan's energy will be questionable at least and even though Washington's identity isn't defined yet, they will use their best lineup in my opinion, with Emeka Okafor, Kevin Seraphin, Trevor Ariza, Bradley Beal and A.J. Price.

Unlike San Antonio, Washington dominated the boards on their last two games by grabbing 60.45% and 60.73% of the rebounds. I believe Washington will have clear edges tonight in terms of rebounds and energy and so, the Wizards should be able to fight off San Antonio tonight, even though the Spurs have a clear edge in terms of identity and talent. I expect a tight game tonight and so, I'll be taking Washington in here.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 702 Washington Wizards (+7) @ -115 / 1.87 on Bovada

Final Score: San Antonio 118 Washington 92



NBA - 705 Milwaukee Bucks @ 706 Chicago Bulls

Projected Line: Chicago by 1 point

This is a home-home series, as Chicago won at Milwaukee last Saturday. Chicago's frontcourt destroyed Milwaukee down low, who were without Samuel Dalembert. Joel Przybilla played for 17 minutes and looked terrible, while Ersan Ilyasova struggled on offense and got outplayed by Carlos Boozer on defense. Chicago won the game via free throws and offensive rebounds, even though they shot worse than 40% FG!

So, what will be different for today? Not only Samuel Dalembert will play, as rookie John Henson will also play and these two players will make Milwaukee make the boards fight be much closer tonight. With Milwaukee being aggressive, I expect them to make this game very close against a Bulls offense that hasn't been shooting well. Therefore, I see a lot of value on the underdog and so, I'll be taking Milwaukee in here.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 705 Milwaukee Bucks (+4) @ -110 / 1.91 on 5 Dimes

Final Score: Milwaukee 93 Chicago 92



NBA - 707 Cleveland Cavaliers @ 708 Memphis Grizzlies

Projected Line: 198 points | Memphis by 8 points

This is Memphis' first spot as a big favorite this season and so, it will be normal that so many games against top teams, they relax a bit. Note that last season, the Grizzlies went 0-6 ATS on home games where they were favored by double digits points and with Cleveland being without Kyrie Irving, it's easy for their opponents to simply overlook Cleveland right now. This is why both Orlando and even Miami struggled to defeat the Cavaliers straight-up! 

It's clear that Memphis will have a big edge on the inside against the Cavaliers' poor inside defense that has just Anderson Varejao has a quality frontcourt defender. Memphis has been struggling on shooting near the basket this season, but against a team that has been allowing 76% FG at the rim, I expect Memphis to improve their numbers near the basket today.

On the other hand, Memphis has been a top offensive rebounding team, but at the same time, they have been terrible on defensive rebounding. This will give a good chance for Cleveland to grab offensive rebounds and score second chance points. I expect a lazy effort from Memphis tonight and this will mean that they will have bad close outs to the perimeter, allowing Cleveland to have good outside shooting numbers tonight. Memphis will solve the game down the stretch, but I don't believe they will cover such a large spread of 12.5 points tonight. I also expect this game to be a high scoring one and so, I'll be taking both Cleveland and the Over in here.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 707/708 Over 193,5 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 707 Cleveland Cavaliers (+12,5) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

Final Score: Cleveland 78 Memphis 84 (Over 193,5 / Cleveland +12,5)



NBA - 709 Charlotte Bobcats @ 710 Oklahoma City Thunder

Projected Line: Oklahoma City by 8 points

Oklahoma City is coming from three tough games against the Clippers, Boston and Philadelphia, so it's normal that they will relax a bit against Charlotte that can actually be a tough matchup for the Thunder! Oklahoma City has been very turnover prone and they have the second worse turnover rate of the league. Now against Charlotte's huge defensive pressure that turns them into a top team in creating turnovers, they will cause problems to the Thunder tonight.

Charlotte has been a poor defensive rebounding team, but Oklahoma City's system makes them a poor team in grabbing offensive rebounds. Charlotte's main problem on defense has been defending the center spot, as Al Horford showed by shooting 11-11 FG at the rim against them. However, on tonight's contest, they won't have problems against Kendrick Perkins. Therefore, the Bobcats will be able to put pressure on the perimeter, without getting pound on the inside. I like Charlotte's spot for tonight to make this game a bit closer than expected and so, I'll be taking the Bobcats in here.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 709 Charlotte Bobcats (+11,5) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

Final Score: Charlotte 69 Oklahoma City 114



NBA - 711 Denver Nuggets @ 712 Utah Jazz

Projected Line: 194 points

Denver is currently living their best moment of the season and this has been due to a great interior defense. In fact, they are at the top of the league in that stat by allowing just 57% FG at the rim and only 54% FG on their last seven games! This is vital on a game against Utah's frontcourt, as without Mo Williams, Utah has a poor outside shooting and this puts a lot of pressure on their frontcourt players to carry the team's offense. But with Denver defending well at this area, they will struggle on offense tonight.

Denver will be playing a back-to-back game tonight and their third game in five nights, so this is a bad spot for them. They have been very inconsistent on their outside shooting, so they will have a lot of pressure on their frontcourt players to perform well. I expect this game to be quite physical and with neither team playing well on offense tonight, so I'll be taking the Under in here.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 711/712 Under 198,5 @ -110 / 1.91 on 5Dimes

Final Score: Denver 103 Utah 105



NBA - 713 New Orleans Hornets @ 714 Los Angeles Clippers

Projected Line: 185 points

Yesterday we took Denver against the Hornets, as New Orleans was on a bad spot and they don't have depth on their roster to play well on bad spots, especially when they are completely perimeter-oriented on their offense. Unfortunately for them, their spot for tonight isn't better, as this will be a final game of a road trip for them, while also being their third game in four nights and also a back to back game. Anthony Davis is still out and that doesn't help them at all.

The Clippers are returning home tonight after a road trip, but this isn't a good spot for them neither, as they had just one day off. New Orleans plays at an extreme slow pace, so this game will be a half court battle, with two teams on poor spots. Therefore, I expect a low scoring game in here and so, I'll be taking the Under.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 713/714 Under 189 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

Final Score: New Orleans 105 LA Clippers 98



NFL Week 12 - 245 Carolina Panthers @ 246 Philadelphia Eagles

Projected Line: Carolina by 6 points

These two teams have very poor records (Carolina is 2-8, while Philadelphia is 3-7), but we can't even remotely say that these two teams have similar stories this season. Carolina is probably one of the best 2-8 teams ever in the league and also one of the most unlucky ones. Not only Carolina has had the toughest schedule in the league so far, as they actually defeated New Orleans and Washington on the road, while they should have also defeated Tampa Bay last week, after having already lost in the last second at Chicago and at Atlanta, two of the best teams in the league. Carolina is a 2-8 team that has been very competitive in almost every game and barring two losses against the Giants and the Broncos, they have been extremely competitive in all their losses, always losing their games by a difference of less than a touchdown to winning record teams such as Tampa Bay (twice), Atlanta, Chicago and Seattle. 

The reasons for this ability to stay competitive on all these games has to go with the fact that they have an average defense against both the pass and the running game, while also having a good pass rush that can put the opposing quarterback in a lot of pressure. They have depth and a lot of potential on the running game and even though Cam Newton has been struggling this season, the Panthers' passing game has a lot of verticality, as Cam Newton is #3 in the league in yards per pass attempt. They will be facing a completely out of sorts Eagles defense that has gone from being a great pass defense in the first weeks of the season to be one of the worst, with some unbelievable coverage errors. They are looking so lost on the field that even top notch defenders like CB Nnamdi Asomugha are clueless about their position on the field, while letting the opposing receivers have lots of space to have a big play. This is the kind of matchup that veteran WR Steve Smith loves to have and he will pound the Eagles' terrible secondary tonight. Carolina's running game has a lot of potential with Cam Newton himself plus running backs DeAngelo Williams, Jonathan Stewart and Mike Tolbert, so even though they haven't been impressive lately, the truth is that Philadelphia's run defense is also struggling and I wouldn't be surprised if Carolina has a big game on the running department as well tonight.

But if things are tough on defense, they aren't any easier for Philadelphia's offense. With both starting QB Michael Vick and starting RB LeSean McCoy out with concussions, the Eagles' offense is now led by rookie QB Nick Foles and rookie RB Bryce Brown. Inserting two rookies in such key positions on a completely destroyed team is a pure recipe for disaster. Things only get even more disastrous when the offensive line is absolutely collapsed due to injuries and they have no chances of handling a Panthers' pass rush that is quite aggressive and that will surely hit Foles a considerable number of times tonight. Carolina has an underrated defense against both the pass and the run, so I don't expect Philadelphia to do anything tonight on offense. We are talking about a team that scored six points to the poor Redskins defense and they won't certainly score many more against a reasonable defense like the Panthers.

This is a great opportunity for Carolina to show the league that they are much better than their current record shows, as this is their last National TV game of the season. On the other hand, Philadelphia is absolutely desintegrated right now and I just don't see how they can stop the bleeding. They don't have anything working properly on their team and I just don't see how they can be competitive tonight against an underrated Panthers team. Therefore, I expect a comfortable win for Carolina and so, I'll be taking them in here.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 245 Carolina Panthers (-3) @ -105 / 1.95 on Bookmaker

Final Score: Carolina 30 Philadelphia 22

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NOTE: Tonight's NBA Package is now fully uploaded: 2 Plays for today!

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November 28th Daily Message:

The NBA continued yesterday and we are coming from a 1-1 day. We have regressed a bit from our great start of NBA season, but I expect to bounce back big time in the following days to get back into our winning road!

So, for today, we have 11 games on the NBA. I'll be also recapping NFL Week 12 today, in order to prepare a great NFL Week 13!

Don't forget the long-term NBA packages are already available! Stay tuned especially on my twitter @gomescapper for news about the release of plays during the day!



Yesterday's Recap:

NBA - 501 Dallas Mavericks @ 502 Philadelphia 76ers

Projected Line: 188 points

After having gone to overtime against the Thunder, Philadelphia didn't show any tiredness from the perimeter on a back to back game against Phoenix and they had their most efficient game of the season from the outside. In fact, not even the fact that they were facing a poor interior defensive team like Phoenix changed their style and the truth is that the Sixers tried just 14 shots at the rim. Philadelphia kept being a jump shooting team, but this time they had an excellent game with 11-26 FG from 16-23 feet and 9-19 from 3pts! Jrue Holliday was the main reason for this great performance with 13-21 FG, 33 points, 13 assists and just 2 turnovers! Therefore, I expect the Sixers to not explore Dallas' interior defense problems as well. The problem for the Sixers is that Dallas has a good perimeter defense and they are coming from a humiliating home loss against the Lakers, where their defense simply didn't exist. Rick Carlisle has already mentioned that he expects a defensive bounce back from his team tonight:

“Nobody likes getting beat by 30 points, especially at home. That’s not how we want to do business here. When that happens, we got to adjust and a lot of it is adjusting our disposition defensively.” 

Darren Collison is a good defender and with the Mavericks being a good defensive team against pick and roll ball handler, spot ups and transitions, I believe Dallas has a good spot to have a good defensive game tonight. On the other hand, Dallas' frontcourt has been very disappointing this season, while being a very poor rebounding team. They are being very dependent from what O.J. Mayo and Darren Collison can do on offense, but Philadelphia is an excellent perimeter defense team led by Jrue Holiday. With Dallas on a bounce back mode and with this game being very perimeter-oriented, but with both teams having good perimeter defenses, I expect this game to be a low scoring one and so, I'll be taking the Under in here.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 501/502 Under 193 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

Final Score: Dallas 98 Philadelphia 100



NBA - 507 Minnesota Timberwolves @ 508 Sacramento Kings

Projected Line: Minnesota by 3 points

Minnesota is 0-5 on their last five games and they are desperate to win tonight. From these last five losses, I'm going to concentrate just on the last three, as the first two losses were against Charlotte and Golden State, in two games where Minnesota was shorthanded with Nikola Pekovic and Kevin Love. On these last three games, Minnesota had no time to adapt to the fact that Kevin Love was back. He suddenly recovered from his injury against Denver last Wednesday and then they played at Portland last Friday and at Golden State last Saturday. But for this game, they had two days to rest. 

On their last three losses against Denver, Portland and Golden State, Minnesota was leading the game in halftime in all three games. Their problem was their poor execution down the stretch, where Minnesota lost focus and the players wanted Kevin Love to step it up and carry the team, when he isn't at 100% to do that right now. Now that they had some days without games, the Wolves finally had a practice and Rick Adelman said after practice that it's clear Love's conditioning, his timing and his shot just aren't back yet and suggested Love's teammates probably deferred to him too much in Saturday's fourth quarter when they should have moved the ball better.

I expect Minnesota to be better prepared for tonight. On offense, their problems were clear. On defense, their opponents against Kevin Love and Nikola Pekovic shoot very little from near the basket with just 24, 21 and 19 FG attempts at the rim on the Wolves' last three games. They will face Sacramento tonight, a team that is coming from a nice home win against Utah, where they dominated down low with 22-28 (79%) FG at the rim! Their improved offense lately is related to their improved efficiency on shooting down low, as they have shot 76-106 (72%) FG at the rim on their last four games. But against this new defensive structure with Nikola Pekovic, Kevin Love and Andrei Kirilenko, I believe Sacramento will struggle to score on the inside today, something that will immediately cause a lot of problems on Sacramento's offense.

The Kings are the worst defensive rebounding team in the league with a defensive rebound rate of just 69.1% and they are an easy target for Minnesota's great offensive rebounding skills, a team that has grabbed 17, 17 and 11 offensive rebounds in their last three games, where Kevin Love has already played. With Minnesota being hungry tonight to get the win and with a very favorable matchup for them, I expect the Wolves to finally get back to the winning road tonight and so, I'll be taking them in here.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 507 Minnesota Timberwolves (+1) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

Final Score: Minnesota 97 Sacramento 89

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NBA 11/27 Advanced Stats Numbers: 

Dallas at Philadelphia

Advanced Stats

4 Factors

Teams

1

2

3

4

T

PACE

Offense

EFG%

TOR

ORR

FTR

DAL

31

25

17

25

98

91.08

105.59

0.49

14.19

25.00

23.46

PHI

28

25

22

25

100

 

111.91

0.51

16.03

31.71

32.00

Phoenix at Cleveland

Advanced Stats

4 Factors

Teams

1

2

3

4

T

PACE

Offense

EFG%

TOR

ORR

FTR

PHO

19

18

34

20

91

92.93

99.86

0.51

14.72

18.42

13.92

CLE

13

19

27

19

78

 

82.34

0.37

16.86

30.43

19.05

Toronto at Houston

Advanced Stats

4 Factors

Teams

1

2

3

4

T

PACE

Offense

EFG%

TOR

ORR

FTR

TOR

23

28

28

22

101

91.45

109.27

0.53

14.91

25.00

10.47

HOU

29

32

38

18

117

 

129.32

0.61

13.18

30.00

19.28

Minnesota at Sacramento

Advanced Stats

4 Factors

Teams

1

2

3

4

T

PACE

Offense

EFG%

TOR

ORR

FTR

MIN

27

21

27

22

97

92.20

105.34

0.49

15.75

30.00

18.07

SAC

26

19

22

22

89

 

96.41

0.48

13.44

17.02

10.71

Indiana at L.A. Lakers

Advanced Stats

4 Factors

Teams

1

2

3

4

T

PACE

Offense

EFG%

TOR

ORR

FTR

IND

25

15

21

18

79

95.42

84.07

0.39

15.76

19.61

21.52

LAL

21

12

24

20

77

 

79.48

0.36

18.12

27.27

30.26

 

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NOTE: Tonight's NBA Package is now fully uploaded: 9 Plays (8 Premium Plays + 1 Free Premium Play) for today, including Two Double Dime Plays! 

Good luck everybody! Yes

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