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This will definitely be a very weird game, as neither team has a lot of motivation to win this game, as if they win this game and they will be second on their group and they will end up facing the US team in a potential semi final match, while if they lose today, they will be third on their group, avoiding the United States until the final. So, both teams would really rather lose this game than winning it, as shown by a poll on a very known Spanish newspaper where most of the Spanish fans want their team to lose today in order to avoid the United States until the final. Therefore, I believe this will be a tight game with the fate of this game being decided somehow on a weird fashion in the last minutes of the contest.

This isn't a first on this kind of competition, as I remember a game between France and Greece in Eurobasket 2009 where both teams were in tank mode in their last group stage contest in order to try to avoid Spain in the quarter finals. In that game, France won it by 2 points in a buzzer beater that no French player celebrated. By the way, following that win, France got crushed by Spain in the quarter finals and they were consequently eliminated from the competition at a very early stage. 

Back to Spain and Brazil. Both teams have excellent frontcourt defenses, with Spain having the Gasol brothers plus Ibaka, while Brazil has Splitter, Varejao and Nene. In fact, the Brazilian interior defense has been amazing by allowing just 36, 22, 26 and 26 points in the paint to their opponents on this competition. The Spanish playing style is relatively slow, as they like to play on a half court style trying to feed their big men, so this game will have a slow pace and with both teams having great interior defenses, it won't be easy to score points today. Brazil's offense has been erratic from the outside (excluding their game against a poor Chinese team) and so, I really believe this will be a very tight contest with a small number of points due to the team's styles. Therefore, I'll be taking both Brazil and the Under on this contest.

The reigning world champion Japan is a very solid team, who relies on their great defense to be able to be competitive against the other top teams. They don't have a great offense, just a very tactically disciplined team, as shown in their last game against Brazil, where their laid back on a very organized formation and then trying to attack very quickly on fast breaks. This tactic worked perfectly for them as they defeated Brazil by 2-0 and today against France, I expect Japan to try exactly this very same tactic.

On the other hand, France has been a very impressive team over the past year and after riding on an impressive winning streak, they lost in group stage against the United States, on a very good match where France really had poor luck on their 2-4 loss. After that game, France crushed North Korea by 5-0 and defeated Colombia by 1-0, while in the quarter finals they defeated Sweden by 2-1, in a revenge game for France from the third place match in last year's World Cup. 

France is a team on a rise and I actually see value on a pk line. I expect this game to be extremely close, but I give some edge to France due to the fact they have probably the best striker in the tournament in Marie-Laure Delie. Due to Japan's playing style, I expect this game to have very few scoring chances and so, I'll take the Under in here as well.

This is a very interesting game because not only it puts head to head two teams with a similar level, as there is a big rivalry between these two countries. These two teams know each other very well and Brazil's coach is actually the coach that led Argentina to their Olympic title back in 2004. These two teams have also faced each other in last year's final of FIBA Americas, where Argentina won by 5 points, in a tournament played in Argentina and where Brazil didn't have Nene, Varejao and Barbosa on their roster at the time.

Matchup wise, I believe Brazil will have a clear edge in terms of big men, which should translate into a rebounding edge for the Brazilian team. Brazil is also defending quite well, especially on the perimeter (allowing just 28% 3pts!), something that can make Argentina struggle big time, as most the Argentinian offense usually comes from the perimeter. Argentina's starting PG Prigioni is struggling badly with kidney stones and he might not even play today, but even if he does, he won't surely be at 100%, something that will make Argentina struggle even more on offense, as Argentina lacks depth to stay competitive without one of their stars on the court at 100%. 

On the other hand, Brazil should use their frontcourt edge to pound Argentina down low on offense, even though Nene hasn't been aggressive at all on this competition. Still, Brazil will have a clear edge in terms of athleticism and they will make the veteran Argentinian team throughout the whole game. Argentina's only clear edge for this contest will exactly come from their experience that will make them a very tough team down the stretch. However, Brazil with edges in terms of depth, frontcourt and with a very improved defense, I believe they will this game at least highly competitive. With them getting 4,5 points on the current line, I'll be taking Brazil today. As I believe Argentina will heavily struggle on offense, I expect the Argentinian team to make a big effort on defense to try to stop the Brazilian offense, something that will make this contest a very physical one, without a lot of offensive efficiency. Therefore, I'll also take the Under in here.