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Olympic Games 08/12 Andre Gomes Men's Basketball Final Day
andre gomes
Joined: 07/03/2007
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Men's Hoops Plays:

Olympic Games - Men's Basketball - Spain vs Brazil


Projected lines: 145 points | Spain by 3 points


This will definitely be a very weird game, as neither team has a lot of motivation to win this game, as if they win this game and they will be second on their group and they will end up facing the US team in a potential semi final match, while if they lose today, they will be third on their group, avoiding the United States until the final. So, both teams would really rather lose this game than winning it, as shown by a poll on a very known Spanish newspaper where most of the Spanish fans want their team to lose today in order to avoid the United States until the final. Therefore, I believe this will be a tight game with the fate of this game being decided somehow on a weird fashion in the last minutes of the contest.

This isn't a first on this kind of competition, as I remember a game between France and Greece in Eurobasket 2009 where both teams were in tank mode in their last group stage contest in order to try to avoid Spain in the quarter finals. In that game, France won it by 2 points in a buzzer beater that no French player celebrated. By the way, following that win, France got crushed by Spain in the quarter finals and they were consequently eliminated from the competition at a very early stage. 

Back to Spain and Brazil. Both teams have excellent frontcourt defenses, with Spain having the Gasol brothers plus Ibaka, while Brazil has Splitter, Varejao and Nene. In fact, the Brazilian interior defense has been amazing by allowing just 36, 22, 26 and 26 points in the paint to their opponents on this competition. The Spanish playing style is relatively slow, as they like to play on a half court style trying to feed their big men, so this game will have a slow pace and with both teams having great interior defenses, it won't be easy to score points today. Brazil's offense has been erratic from the outside (excluding their game against a poor Chinese team) and so, I really believe this will be a very tight contest with a small number of points due to the team's styles. Therefore, I'll be taking both Brazil and the Under on this contest.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on Under 150 @ -107 / 1.93 on Pinnacle
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on Brazil (+6,5) @ -110 / 1.91 on Pinnacle




Olympic Games - Men's Basketball - Argentina vs United States


Projected lines: 178 points | United States by 28 points


***DOUBLE DIME PLAY***

This isn't a very important game for Argentina, as they will most likely be third on this group and as we are talking about a veteran team with so little depth, I expect them to rest their key players today as much as possible, especially when the quarter finals are already next Wednesday. Argentina, just like the other teams, will play their 5th game in 10 days and if we look to the minutes that Scola (35, 33, 36, 25) and Manu (32, 35, 25, 28) played in their previous four games, I believe Argentina has a clear flat spot for today.

On the other hand, the United States is coming from a letdown game against Lithuania, where they played absolutely no defense. I saw in their practice report that they put a lot of effort on defense for today's contest and they will surely have some "revenge" in mind after having just able to defeat Argentina by 6 points in a recent friendly game (86-80). The US team has a huge edge in terms of depth and athleticism against the undersized Argentinian team and I believe the United States will make a statement today against Argentina after a poor game against Lithuania and so, I'll take the US team to crush Argentina today. 

I also like the Under on this contest. Every single game the US has played so far on this competition has clearly gone Over the total posted, but today I like the spot for the Under, not only due to the US mindset for this game, as also the Argentinian playing style favors that, as they defend well in the perimeter and their offense also commits a small number of turnovers (7, 12, 8, 10 so far on this competition; they also only committed 13 TO in their friendly game against USA). This will mean less transition chances for the US and consequently, a slower pace than usual in the games involving the US team. Take the United States and the Under on this contest. 


Pick: 4 units (Double Dime Play) on Under 185,5 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on United States (-23) @ -108 / 1.926 on Pinnacle

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bwizzle
Joined: 01/12/2011
Posts: 1293
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I just wanted to chime in and THANK YOU for the easy winner with the early game today. You were spot on,  France was more concerned about resting than playing that game. I might as well ride it along for the rest of the plays! Thanks again for sharing your work! GD LK!

Bwizzle

andre gomes
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Men's Hoops Final Play for Today:

Olympic Games - Men's Basketball - Great Britain vs China


Projected line: 157 points


This is a game between two teams already eliminated, so I expect them to have zero motivation on playing defense, while trying to outscore their opponents in order to leave this competition at least with one victory. The Chinese defense is by far the weakest in the competition and they can't stop their opponents from crushing them in the boards, as their opponents have grabbed 12, 13, 21 and 18 offensive rebounds against them so far on this tournament. They also can't defend in transition and their first four opponents on this tournament pounded them with 10, 13, 13 and 21 fast break points.

On the other hand, the British team has been improving their offense throughout this competition. They are still very dependent from Deng and they faced good defensive teams that defended Deng very well, as for example Australia limited Deng to 3-15 FG and 9 points in their last game. I don't believe the Chinese defense will be able to stop him and so the British should be able to pound the poor Chinese defense like the other teams did it during this group stage.

China has just one weapon: their outside shooting. I've previously mentioned how good the Brazilian interior defense is and that was clear in their last game against China, where they held Yi Jianlian to just 1-9 FG. As I don't expect a big effort from the British defense today, I believe Yi will have a bounce back game today.

Therefore, I expect both teams to be able to achieve good offensive performances today, where their defensive efforts will be little to none. So, I'll be taking the Over on this contest.


Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on Over 152,5 @ -105 / 1.95 on Pinnacle

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andre gomes
Joined: 07/03/2007
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Women's Soccer Plays:


Olympic Games - Women's Soccer - France vs Japan


The reigning world champion Japan is a very solid team, who relies on their great defense to be able to be competitive against the other top teams. They don't have a great offense, just a very tactically disciplined team, as shown in their last game against Brazil, where their laid back on a very organized formation and then trying to attack very quickly on fast breaks. This tactic worked perfectly for them as they defeated Brazil by 2-0 and today against France, I expect Japan to try exactly this very same tactic.

On the other hand, France has been a very impressive team over the past year and after riding on an impressive winning streak, they lost in group stage against the United States, on a very good match where France really had poor luck on their 2-4 loss. After that game, France crushed North Korea by 5-0 and defeated Colombia by 1-0, while in the quarter finals they defeated Sweden by 2-1, in a revenge game for France from the third place match in last year's World Cup. 

France is a team on a rise and I actually see value on a pk line. I expect this game to be extremely close, but I give some edge to France due to the fact they have probably the best striker in the tournament in Marie-Laure Delie. Due to Japan's playing style, I expect this game to have very few scoring chances and so, I'll take the Under in here as well.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on Under 2 Goals @ +110 / 2.10 on Bookmaker
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on France pk @ +101 / 2.01 on Pinnacle

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andre gomes
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Women's Soccer Play (Last Olympics Play for today!):

Olympic Games - Women's Soccer - Canada vs United States


***DOUBLE DIME PLAY***


Canada has very surprisingly reached semi finals on this tournament and it was even more surprising how they reached this stage of the competition. They were third on their group and they only qualified for the quarter finals because they were one of the best third placed teams in the competition. Then, in the quarter finals, they faced the home team who was one of the weakest teams still present in the competition and who were on a letdown spot after a huge win over Brazil, besides looking extremely nervous throughout the whole match.

They will now face the American team, who is the world's best team in women's soccer. They might not be the current world champions because they lost a penalty shootout against Japan in the final, but their consistency on major competition and consequent super experience they have at this level make them extremely (if not close to impossible) hard to beat. Canada is a very inexperienced team at this level, they lack the quality of the American players and the head to head between these two teams (USA leads Canada 43-3-5!) that shows that Canada is winless in the last 26 games against USA makes me believe that the American team will very comfortably outplay Canada today and get a good win today. Therefore, I'll be taking the US team in here in a Double Dime Play!

Pick: 4 units (Double Dime Play) on United States (-1) @ -132 / 1.758 on Pinnacle

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andre gomes
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Men's Hoops Play:

Olympic Games - Men's Basketball Quarter Finals - Russia vs Lithuania


Projected line: Russia by 4 points


Russia won Group B with four wins in their first four games and then a loss in a meaningless game against Australia. They looked impressive with a very solid defense and with a good enough offense to make them highly competitive. They are favorites to win this game, but Lithuania offers them a tough matchup. This version of Russia plays quicker and has a better offense than the Russian versions from the previous years, but the fact that play more open than usual will give chances to Lithuania, who definitely possesses enough offensive power to go head to head against the Russian offense.

This is especially true because the Russian offense has shown some weakness in the group stage that might hurt them sooner or later. They have problems at the FT (just 68% FT) and their outside shooting is very inconsistent. On the other hand, Lithuania is one of the best FT shooting teams in the competition (81% FT so far) and they are surely more consistent from the outside. Barring a blowout loss against Argentina in the first game, Lithuania has always been very competitive in all their games, including against the United States, winning them or losing by single digits. These two teams know each other very well and therefore, I expect a hard fought game with the winner being only decided down the stretch. Looking at the current lines, we have value on Lithuania at this spread and so, I'll take them in here. 


Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on Lithuania (+7) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

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andre gomes
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Men's Hoops Play:

Olympic Games - Men's Basketball Quarter Finals - France vs Spain


Projected line: Spain by 6 points HT | Spain by 10 points FT


***TRIPLE DIME PLAY - SPLIT THE WAGER***


Spain is being the biggest disappointment of this tournament, as they failed to cover a single spread in their first five games of this competition and when they were expected to win Group B, they finished third. However, this isn't the first time that something like this happens to Spain, as in Eurobasket 2009, they also struggled in group stage just to dominate in the knockout stage with a 20 points win over France, a 18 points win over Greece and a 22 points over Serbia in the final.

On this game, Spain has some tremendous matchup edges against France. The French team has been a good defensive team, with a strong interior defense. They held the United States, Argentina and Lithuania to "just" 40, 34 and 38 points in the paint and even without Noah, they have been solid down low. The problem is that as good as they are being, the Spanish interior offense is still too good for them. These two teams faced each other in two friendly games before the Olympics and Spain won both games despite playing without Marc Gasol and in Spain's last group stage game against Brazil, Pau Gasol dominated with 9-11 FG 25pts and 7 rebounds in just 24 minutes, with Marc Gasol (7-10 FG) and Ibaka (7-10 FG) also playing very well before the "expected choke job" from the Spanish team in the fourth quarter to avoid facing the United States until the final.

Besides the inconsistency from Navarro and Fernandez, Spain's main problem on this tournament has been defending pick n rolls and and in the perimeter. In their two losses against Russia and Brazil, they allowed 17-40 (42.5%) 3pts. France is a solid team, but they are simply atrocious from the perimeter. Batum has been solid, but the rest of the team just can't shoot from the perimeter and the result is a combined of 30-106 3pts for just 28%! Spain will definitely use some zone defense and the French offense will be just too one-dimensional for Spain will easily dominate them.

Even though most people might be surprised for Spain being such a considerable favorite on this contest, the truth is that this is a great spot for Spain and they will take advantage of their matchup edges and get a quite comfortable win over France. I'm taking Spain today in a Triple Dime Play! Split the wager.

Pick: 2 units on Spain (-3,5) 1ST HALF @ -110 / 1.91 on 5Dimes
Pick: 3 units on Spain (-6.5) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

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andre gomes
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LATE PLAY ADDED:

NOTE: I'm playing the Under as well due to some late line movement that gave us some value!

Pick: 3 units on (Single Dime Play) on Under 155 @ -110 / 1.91 on Pinnacle

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andre gomes
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Men's Hoops Play:


Olympic Games - Men's Basketball Quarter Finals - Brazil vs Argentina


Projected line: 155 points | Argentina by 1 point


This is a very interesting game because not only it puts head to head two teams with a similar level, as there is a big rivalry between these two countries. These two teams know each other very well and Brazil's coach is actually the coach that led Argentina to their Olympic title back in 2004. These two teams have also faced each other in last year's final of FIBA Americas, where Argentina won by 5 points, in a tournament played in Argentina and where Brazil didn't have Nene, Varejao and Barbosa on their roster at the time.

Matchup wise, I believe Brazil will have a clear edge in terms of big men, which should translate into a rebounding edge for the Brazilian team. Brazil is also defending quite well, especially on the perimeter (allowing just 28% 3pts!), something that can make Argentina struggle big time, as most the Argentinian offense usually comes from the perimeter. Argentina's starting PG Prigioni is struggling badly with kidney stones and he might not even play today, but even if he does, he won't surely be at 100%, something that will make Argentina struggle even more on offense, as Argentina lacks depth to stay competitive without one of their stars on the court at 100%. 

On the other hand, Brazil should use their frontcourt edge to pound Argentina down low on offense, even though Nene hasn't been aggressive at all on this competition. Still, Brazil will have a clear edge in terms of athleticism and they will make the veteran Argentinian team throughout the whole game. Argentina's only clear edge for this contest will exactly come from their experience that will make them a very tough team down the stretch. However, Brazil with edges in terms of depth, frontcourt and with a very improved defense, I believe they will this game at least highly competitive. With them getting 4,5 points on the current line, I'll be taking Brazil today. As I believe Argentina will heavily struggle on offense, I expect the Argentinian team to make a big effort on defense to try to stop the Brazilian offense, something that will make this contest a very physical one, without a lot of offensive efficiency. Therefore, I'll also take the Under in here. 


Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on Under 159,5 @ -110 / 1.91 on Betonline
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on Brazil (+4,5) @ -106 / 1.94 on Pinnacle

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andre gomes
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Men's Hoops Final Plays for Today:

Olympic Games - Men's Basketball Quarter Finals - United States vs Australia


Projected lines: 185 points | United States by 29 points 


The last time these two teams faced each other was in the previous Olympics in Beijing, where the United States won by 116-85. I don't believe it will be that lopsided, even though Australia doesn't have a shot at winning the game of course. 

Australia is a tough team that will be very physical on today's game. They have a physiology of not allowing easy baskets to their opponents and so expect the Aussies to foul the US team as much as necessary to prevent the Americans to easily score on transition plays. Therefore, Australia will try to slow the pace down against the US team.

With some depth and good size, Australia will surely defend the paint, not allowing easy shots down low. They also have a good transition defense and so, they have all the necessary conditions to make the US have a subpar game on offense today, which means they shouldn't be able to score 115 points or more today.

On the other hand, Australia's main problem on offense is their lack of outside shooting, even though they improved that in their last two games with 13-24 and 11-30 3pts. They also have a good pick n roll offense and with USA being so dominant throughout this whole competition, they might underestimate Australia today. I expect a relatively slow paced game in here, especially for a game involving the United States and with Australia keeping this score relatively respectable. Therefore, I'll take both Australia and the Under today.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on Under 190 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on Australia (+33) @ -105 / 1.95 on Pinnacle

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