I did put this together today...hard to stay away totally fromt he biz / and forum / although I am on a small hiatis......which is going well I might add!!!
By Tony George
Lets discuss the Series Price moneyline play and my take on the best bet in this series.
The Lines: ( Averaged out Ranges at various offshores and Vegas)
OK City Thunder +160 to +170
San Antonio Spurs -175 to -180
The line did surprise me, but the bottom line is the Spurs are +100 to win the NBA Chmapionship this year right now in Vegas, and the Thunder are +300 on the average, so all in all I guess oddsmakers are sticking to their guns on the Spurs in this series by posting them as a decent sized but manageable favorite. I took a deep look at this and feel there are more than a few positives with this series that a person can make a small wager and cash in, in my opinion.
I have always been sold in my 21 years of professional capping in Pro Sports on EXPERIENCE. No doubt the Spurs have experienced, veteran players across the board on this team, many of them multiple time world champion players. They also have a coach that knows how to get it done as well, AND THIS IS A HUGE ADVANTAGE to factor in when looking that this series and the matchup in general. It obviously is a hard item to handicap but one I always place emphasis on in game to game scenario's, especially in the case if the Spurs are off a defeat. I also factor it in a series bet like this one.
Conversely, the Thunder are vastly talented and also a deep team and are extremely well coached, and Durrant is the best player on the floor for either team, so that weighs heavy as well into the equation. With that said this is a very young team with little experience other than last years run.
Game 1 has the Spurs laying 5.5 points at home, which to me is no surprise off a series sweep of the Clippers who were not 100% headed into it to begin with, and some well deserved rest for them while OK City put the Lakers away in 5 games. The Lakers were a mess in that series and quite frankly had no answer on defense, and also had some serious chemistry issues most of the season and especially in the latter stages of their series with OK City, and if not for Kobe Bryant carrying most the load for LA, it could have ben uglier than it was for LA. All that said I do not put a ton of stock in that series however impressive OK City was.
The Spurs ranked 2nd in offense in the NBA, and 1st in shooting percentage and 1st in 3 point range percentage. They rank 16th overall on defense and can rebound with the best of them. OK City ranks 3rd in offense and also shooting percentage and 11th from beyond the arc, and the rebounding numbers for both team are damn near equal. Both teams are well coached and both teams have depth, neither is here by accident. OK City also has a huge homecourt advantage as well as San Antonio.
San Antonio has home court in the series and the experience factor to boot. In my eyes this is Tim Duncan and companies last shot at it all, and they will make the most of it with depth, experience at all levels including coaching, and perhaps a final game in the series at home, which is huge. This should go down to the wire and while OK City is very capable of winning it, my money is on the Spurs here for one last run at the ring. Not a large wager but worth a 1 Unit stretch.
Small Prop Bet on the Spurs at -175 to -180
Regards, Tony George- Big 12 Expert, 21 Year Veteran Capper, Pregame Pro Handicapper - "I hate to lose, more than I Love to Win"
Nice breakdown TonyG, but question for you....how come you don't jus bet the Spurs+100 to win it all instead of risking the -180 on the Spurs to beat the Thunder?
"EVERY DOG HAS HIS DAY"
I agree with Griff. If they get past OKC they should cruise in the Finals. Just my opinion. GL Tony
2012-2013 NBA: 43-22-1
2012-2013 NBA Totals: 4-1
2011-2012 NBA: 282-233-9
2011-2012 NBA Totals: 148-110-4
2010-2011 NBA: 93-79-3
2010-2011 NBA Playoffs: 58-47-2
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2012 MLB: 66-75-2
2012 MLB Totals: 11-12-2
2011 MLB: 251-205-18
2011 MLB Totals: 178-161-17
2011-2012 NFL: 95-74-2
2011-2012 NFL Totals 47-39-1
2011-2012 NFL MNF 8-6
2012-2013 NFL 8-12
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Good point...and PS..I already did bet them to win it all....and the funny thing is I dropped $300 at the beginning of the season to win it all too! LOL
I was asked to do a series breakdown for a blog so I did, but YES as two of the Forums sharper guys suggest....a bet to win it all for the same amount of money with less downside (or price to pay up front) would be a good move...
Thanks for the input guys....
Thanks for the kind words Tony. What were the odds at the beginning of the season on the Spurs by the way?
Escapes me...I will have to look to be sure.....I have the ticket from the Rio Sportsbook in my office...Guess I should know that..I bet like 4 teams total...Thunder was one and Indiana was one and took Chicago (yikes) ....
25 to 1
GO SPURS, GET MONEY!!!$!!$!$!