3 gutbusting L’s in last 36 Hrs after 6-0 StartBoth Indy L’s (UNDER & IND -5) looked beautiful throughout3 Hard L’s Hurt so more than satisfaction of 6 Good W’s Plugging onward
2012 NBA EASTERN CONFERENCE PLAYOFFS
Sun May 6, 2012 | 1:07 PM, EDT | ABC-TVWells Fargo Center | Philadelphia, Pennsylvania
Game 41 CHICAGO BULLS8 PHILADELPHIA 76’ERS
(Philadelphia 76'ers Lead Series 2-1)
#1 Seeded CHI facing the an entirely unthinkable holeCHI against the wall more than ever Facing prospects of 1-3 HoleGoing into battle, on the road On quick 39½-hour turnaround w/o their 23 Year-Old MVP, D Rosew/o their paint-patrolling, energizer post man, J Noah
How on earth does CHI have any shot to stay with Refueling, surging PHI?
CHI HC Tom Thibodeau is reportedly stressing Bulls chances w/3 Primary areas of attack:
1. DEFENSE: Chi continuing to hound perimeter (1-14 PHI 3’s)2. DEFENSE: Chi forbid Philly from scoring off break opportunities (17 PHI on Fri)3. DEFENSE: Get 6’s off FT Stripe (33 PHI FTA Fri)
Against wall Bulls, w/or w/o Rose & NoahShould be able to reverse multiple, wildly uncharacteristic Fri game developments:
PHI 33 FTA?PHI was dead-last % of pts from FT’s during season (14.1%)PHI had ⅓ of their points from Stripe Fri Night
PHI JUST 8 TURNOVERS? About ½ that of CHI? (15-8)PHI was #1 in the NBA w/just 11.1 Turnovers/GmYET CHI forced 3RD most T-Overs in NBAMoreover, this game seems to boil down to 1 Primary Thing:Can CHI strong regular season supporting cast Come thru anywhere near their 2011-2012 Levels?
I truly believe they must & will,especially considering CHI key scorers,
STARTERS:#2 Scorer DENG (15.6 Reg Avg) #4 Scorer WATSON (10.3 Reg Avg)
BENCH CAST#6 Scorer, KORVER (8.1 Reg Avg) BUTLER (3.1 Reg Avg)
All combined to play collective 43.4% of CHI Gm Min (104.2 of 240)Yet 3 of these 4 CHI players finished scoreless on Fri &
Combined to score 5 total points (all Deng) On 2-16 shooting (1-7 Deep | ZERO FTM)Odds that CHI will shoot this poorly again is astronomically slim
Yet - we cannot underestimate #2 PHI Defense, all the same
Hence, this is lined up as an idyllic Under playBetween #24 & #26 paced PHI & CHI teams &Two of 3 Best NBA Defenses (#2 PHI | #3 CHI)
w/this overwhelmingly desperate CHI team w/DEFENSE just about only CHI Fall-Back For a reasonable chance at a CHI WINI just like the CHI (small) to WIN, even w/most trends favoring PHI
Biggest Play:Really like UNDER – even w/such a low, trappish looking number
Play-of-the-Week3 UNITCHICAGO PHILADELPHIA | UNDER 174 (-115 | Bovada)
1 UNIT CHICAGO +135 (Bet-365)PHILADELPHIA
All the best, guys
Way-Out-West, LLC ™ | INVIGORATING SPORTS ANALYSIS | stevebeav.blogspot.com | #Stevebeav"Winning is determined by ones appropriate response to Losing" | Sleep? OverratedBEAVER NATION: Powered by Orange | Overachieving Since 1868 | "Great Day to be a Beaver"
Good luck Beav, read somewhere Deng might not play either
Deng is a dynamic, integral puzzle piece in Thib's scheme, Yet, he’s has been mysteriously non-existent in 2012 Playoffs
Getting the sense that this is THE swing game for Chicago; Similar to BOS Gm 2 in ATL; when C's seemingly had 0 SHOT to Win on Rd
Deng looks just fine in warm-upsYet, any issue w/Deng, Booz, ect....MIGHT be more Under Amo
At some point, (CHI Pick aside), If/when CHI Roster & Rotation is ENTIRELY depleted;An UNDER comes into some real peril
Helluvalot more $ right now (3x) from Unit-Count perspectiveNot gonna lie, I'm not as comfortable The more we slice up possibilities of a CHI at PHI Game w/all these increasingly volitile Variables.
Still see a 86-81-ish CHI Win
One last point: PHI (#26) lowest rated Close Gm Record (of 16 Playoff Tms)
Yeah,I took the sixers,like the way Turner and holiday are playing rightnow,both seem to be growing up in this series.Of course not having to guard rose has got to help.Also think (maybe) that 2.5 is a trap,similar to the heats-5 last game.See what happens,see if we can learn anything from it.Hpe you nail that under,the line has dropped 2 points.
Nice job Steven!
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great call buddy.Keep up the good work
Having some problems with my the amount of characters in my forum signature, so I will post my records in my threads for the sports they pertain to.
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Close Shave - FAR too close ..
Yet, didn't cost any profits, & we'll take our Lessons-Learned, Our +1.61 UNIT Day & charge ahead into Wk 2 of these Electrifying 2012 NBA Playoffs 3 UNIT Game of Week winner came at an acceptable price; (w/higher -115 buy-In price) Enabling an ½-point up to 174 at Bovada
Coming down stretch,
The ½-Point wasn't needed in the end,
Yet worth all one-hundred-twenty pennies of lost profits to have in our back-pocketArguably - w/CHI unable to hold PHI Under 20 for ANY single Quarter, Teams combining for 86 FIRST HALF Total PointsTeams combining for 85 SECOND HALF Total PointsThis play had far too little room for a burst or cluster of run-outs....In hindsight, it all spends the same, Yet probably NOT worthy of a PLAY-OF-THE-WEEK. (Not to mention debatable nature of buying-up -0.05 add'l Vig for 3-U of risk)Repeatedly read Goodfella Tweets, advising us to'Always give ourselves an OUT'
This play WON, yet gave us NO room for this 'out'That sort of Risk (long-term) is going to end w/RED Numbers staining our LEDGER
CAN'T ACCEPT DISPROPORTIONATE RISK &
RED Numbers that inevitably accompany that risk
Might sound entirely illogical...
Yet I'm a little BETTER w/the +135 BULLS 'L'; than an UNDER 'W'... in Hindsight A SINGLE UNIT L was more of a HEDGE; an acceptable / calculated Value vs. Risk play, All comes down to a WINNING DAY & WINNING WEEK(+1.61 UNIT Day = a standard +1 Play/Pick type of Day),Week-1 'Junk-Punch' Losses aside, we end at the Benchmark Point (1 FULL WK) w/entirely reasonable, expected PROFITS, 7-4 (+6.25 UNITS)ONWARD
2 U | 4/28 | DAL +7½ at OKC (-105 | +1.9) W 1-01 U | 4/28 | DAL at OKC | Ov 193 (+0.91 | +2.81) W 2-02½ U | 4/29 | UTA at SAS | Un 207 (+2.28 | +5.09) W 3-02 U | 4/30 | ORL at IND -9 (+1.82 | +6.91) W 4-01 U | 5/1 | DEN +6 at LAL (+0.91 | +7.82) W 5-02 U | 5/3 | MIA -5 at NYK (+1.82 | +9.64) W 6-02 U | 5/4 | ATL at BOS -8 (-2 | +7.64) L 6-12 U | 5/5 | IND -5 at ORL (-2 | +5.64) L 6-21 U | 5/5 | IND at ORL | Un 181 (-1 | -4.64) L 6-33 U | 5/6 | CHI at PHI | Un 174 (-115 | +2.61 | +7.25) W 7-31 U | 5/6 | CHI +135 at PHI (-1.00 | +6.25) L 7-4