Friday, May 27th
NBA Playoffs
Cavaliers (-6.5, 197.5) at Raptors - 8:35 pm ET (ESPN)
Toronto qualifies in a solid bounce back spot after losing by 38 points (116-78) in Game 5 on Wednesday night. The Raptors continue to struggle on the road, but they have played well at home this season, going 40-11 SU in all games. In fact, the home team is now 17-4 SU in all Raptors' playoff games this season, including a perfect 5-0 SU/ATS in this series so far. Home underdogs are also 22-12 ATS (65%) in the conference finals the past 25 years, including 4-0 SU/ATS this season.
While the situation favors Toronto, it does not change the fact that Cleveland is the much better team. The Cavaliers finally woke up late in Game 4 and overcame an 18-point deficit to briefly take the lead late in the game. They carried that momentum into Game 5 and they will probably stay more focused in Game 6 tonight (after losing past two games in Toronto) and knowing they can now clinch this series with a win. In five of the seven meetings in which Cleveland was at full strength this season, the Cavaliers held 22-2, 14-3, 35-7, 22-2, and 43-1 largest lead advantages. Cleveland is the better team, but this line is inflated. Cleveland was only +3 points better per game this season.
Games 1 & 2 had misleading Unders as my mathematical re-scoring model had those games finishing with 202.5 points in each game. The teams only combined to score 199 points in each game. Game 3 was legitimately lower scoring with 183 points scored with my math model showing 184.5 points scored. Game 4 was a misleading Over with 204 points scored with my math model only showing 184.5 points scored. Game 5 was a misleading Under with only 194 points scored; my math model showed 204 points should have been scored.
The eight head-to-head meetings this season have averaged 199.6 points per game with median scores of 197/199. However, my re-scores have averaged just 193.6 ppg with median re-scores of 190/194.5.
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