Monday, May 23rd
NBA Playoffs
Cavaliers (-6.5, 197) at Raptors - 8:35 pm ET (ESPN)
The situation favors the Cavaliers as this should be a focused bounce-back spot after losing by 15 points (99-84) in Game 3 on Saturday night. In four of the five meetings in which Cleveland was at full strength this season, the Cavaliers have held 22-2, 14-3, 35-7, and 22-2 largest lead advantages in each game. Toronto held an 18-1 largest lead edge in Game 3 on Saturday, but that was a fantastic situational spot for the Raptors, and a flat spot for the Cavaliers. Cleveland is certainly the much better team, but unfortunately this line remains way too inflated. Using all games this season would make a fair line Pick'em.
Games 1 & 2 had misleading Unders as limited scoring in the final minutes barely kept both games Under the total. My mathematical re-scoring model had those two games finishing with 202.5 points each. Game 3 was legitimately lower scoring with 183 total points scored with my math model re-scoring at 184.5. Overall, in the six head-to-head meetings this season, the average total score has been 199.8 points per game with median scores of 197/199. My re-scores have averaged just 193.4 ppg with median re-scores of 190/194.5.
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