I’m having a helluva good month, but the daily free plays just aren’t getting there for the most part. No rational reason to explain why, as I simply choose one of the plays I’m on each day, and weirdly keep opting for wrong one in this space. I’ll try going the NBA route today. Note I’m 6-0 so far with NBA playoff games, and I’d like to keep that streak rolling with this play.
HAWKS @ CELTICS
Take: HAWKS -1.5
Brad Stevens has the Celtics way ahead of schedule as far as their rebuilding process goes. I don’t think there’s much question Boston is on the way back to being a contender. But right now, they’re a shorthanded squad that might be running out of gas and I suspect the Celts will get closed out tonight.
The home team has won each of the five games in this series, but I don’t see much argument to the assessment that Atlanta has been the superior team in this series. Fact is, the Hawks probably ought to be relaxing and waiting for the second round already, but give the Celtics credit for grinding out two wins at home to make this series interesting.
But the injury report has wreaked havoc with the Celtics. Losing Avery Bradley was a huge blow to Boston’s chances of winning this series. Kelly Olynyk has been extremely limited. Now Isaiah Thomas is nursing an ankle, and while he’ll play tonight, I would not be surprised if the exciting guard is a bit limited physically.
I don’t believe the Hawks are any better than Boston with full rosters on each side. But that hasn’t been the case in this series and it looks to me as though the Celtics are getting worn down at this point. They were really dragging in the second half of Game Five and I’m not sure they have enough fuel in the tank to battle Atlanta on even or better terms for 48 minutes at this juncture.
The bettors apparently don’t feel the same way, in spite of some clear adjustments in the numbers by the oddsmakers. Boston was a three-point favorite in Game Three. Now one week later, they’re a 1.5 or perhaps even a two-point dog against the same team on the same court. Yet the ticket percentage count continues to be pretty defined, if not a landslide. And once again, as I’m writing this piece, the Celtics are again commanding most of the attention from the players.
I know the Celtics are going to give this all they’ve got, as this is simply not a team that mails it in. But we did see a white flag get waved in Game Five and while this won’t be as lopsided, I believe the gap between these teams is widening. I’m spotting the small spread and backing the Hawks to wrap up the series with the win and cover tonight.
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My 2* MLB Best Bet is loaded - a late game for Thursday.