Texas State battled Georgia State to the wire, and while the Bobcats let a nice lead get away, they stayed within the number for the Thursday free play winner. I’ll head to the NBA for the Friday comp.
885 BUCKS @ 886 JAZZ
Take: 886 JAZZ -7.5
I’m not what one would refer to as a history buff when it comes to sports betting. But some numbers are a little hard to ignore. Take as an example the series results between the Milwaukee Bucks and Utah Jazz. Talk about beyond lopsided. The Jazz have covered 21 of the last 26 against Milwaukee, including a nifty 13-3 spread ledger at home.
That doesn’t mean another ticket gets cashed on the Utah side tonight. But it’s not the worst starting point of all time. Some in-season trends add a little fuel to the fire. Milwaukee has struggled playing on the road off a loss, while the Jazz have been pretty good playing at home off a win.
But for me, the nuts and bolts here is the matchup. It looks to me like the Alec Burks injury has been some addition by subtraction for the Jazz. I’m not a big Burks guy, and some of his metrics back up that opinion. I don’t think it’s over the top to suggest this team is simply better with Burks not on the floor for meaningful minutes.
On the Bucks side, they’ve had some injury issues, and while the sidelined players are not stars, I have to believe the thinned out bench is contributing to the recent poor play by Milwaukee.
In any event, Milwaukee heads into Salt Lake City having lost six of seven. That contrasts unfavorably with Utah’s form, as the Jazz have won four straight. The recent surge by the Jazz has vaulted them into the eighth playoff spot in the Western Conference.
In power rate the NBA with two sets of numbers, one full season and the other a fast rating based more on recent play. As a rule I put more emphasis on the latter, for what I think are fairly obvious reasons. In tonight’s game, I make Utah -11.5, so I don’t have a problem in terms of value. Add in the extras, such as that crazy series history, and I’m willing to lay the points this time with the Jazz.
--
My CBB Grinder 2* Best Bet is loaded for Friday!