To say I love wagering late season NBA and postseason would be a major understatement. We have built a 58% winning mark over the last 7 postseasons in pro basketball, including a 34-13 ATS winning mark in the NBA Finals since 2008. Check out my NBA postseason packages and daily plays at ssinvegas.com.
As far as my approach to the NBA playoffs -- we must be willing to adjust without forgetting "where we are from."
I hear many talk about the zig-zag theory when it comes to the NBA postseason.
Today however, it’s common for elite teams to try to end a series as quickly as possible. And you can usually see with your own eyes when a trailing team has thrown in the towel.
Last year, the only matchups that went the distance in the best-of-7 format were in the first round. After that, it was a matter of Miami dominating the Eastern Conference (beating Brooklyn 4-1 and Indiana 4-2), and San Antonio dominating everybody (the Spurs beat Portland 4-1, Oklahoma City 4-2 and Miami 4-1).
The point: You can no longer kneejerk to a “bounce-back” mindset if you want to finish in the black. There will certainly be occasional bounce-back scenarios in the playoffs (particularly when a superior team is coming off a loss); you can still confidently bet those scenarios aggressively. But anchoring your overall approach to assumptions of coaching adjustments and increased motivation is likely to lead to frustration.
Also - I always make sure to have a solid handle on team efficiency ratings at both ends of the floor before jumping into a series. Understanding when to use "old school" playoff capping tools and when to insert new and improved approaches goes a long way. I'm a big believer in situational handicapping in the regular season, but matchups take over for me in the playoffs.
If you wish to read my entire article on how to approach the NBA postseason, simply click here: /pregame-forums/f/10/t/1211594.aspx
Best of luck to all this postseason!
Scott Spreitzer