2014 - 2015 NBA Record
177 – 139 @ 56% for +24.1 Units
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#1: Indiana Pacers -6
Yesterday the line in the Bulls game opened at +4 CHI and moved up to -1 throughout the day as Chicago was very much undervalued at home. Today, the line opened at +6 CHI and has stayed there the whole day. That’s interesting because once again I believe pure line value is on the Bulls here. Of course that’s looking at it from the standpoint of all the Bulls’ players being healthy. They’re not as Rose, Butler, and Gibson are out of commission. Their backups did very well yesterday but how will they fare in a b2b and 3in4 spot? Will Dunleavy put up 21 points again? Will Mirotic score 26? And will E’Twaun Moore come close to his career-high number of 19 from yesterday? All these are very doubtful. Indiana is fresher, they are at home, and they’re a better defensive team than the Thunder. Bulls are missing 3 of their top-5 players, and eventually that is going to start catching up to them. They dodged one yesterday against a team playing in a ‘fatigue’ spot and now they’re the ones in that scenario.
#2: Atlanta Hawks +1.5
Cavs are playing their 3rd game in the last 4 nights (with a day off yesterday), their 4th game in March, and their 7th road game since the All Star Break (7 out of 9 so far). By comparison this is only Atlanta’s 2nd game in March, they’re coming off a 2-day break, and they’ve been home for all but 2 games since the ASB. I think the Hawks are the ‘fresher’ of the two teams tonight. In addition, they’re also the ‘better’ of the two teams, at least when you look at the year-long comparison. Sure the Cavs are playing at a top level right now, losing 4 games in the last 24, but keep in mind that all 4 of those losses were on the road. Hawks are a tough team because they have so many different options to go to and I think Cleveland’s defensive short-comings will be exposed today. I’ll grab the best team in the Eastern Conference as a home dog tonight.
#3: Golden State Warriors -11
Something is just way off with this Dallas squad. Nowitzki seems very old, Rondo is a disaster, and Ellis seems to be dealing with some sort of a hip issue. To make matters worse, Harris and Parsons are out, and JJ Barea is questionable. Dallas got blowout out by a Portland team that was on a b2b coming off a big OT win @ LA the night prior. If they can’t keep the game close in such a scenario, how are they going to do it when they’re the ones in a ‘fatigue’ spot? I think we’ll see a blowout here.
Good Luck
Adding:
#4: Sacramento Kings -3.5
With Vucevic declared out, I think Cousins is going to have a field day here. I'll back the Kings at this short number.