2014 - 2015 NBA Record
175 – 139 @ 56% for +22.1 Units
-----------------------------------------
#1: Utah Jazz +1
Yesterday Boston got annihilated by the Cavs as they got outrebounded 52 to 42, had a -26 PIP differential (48 to 22), and shot 35% from the field. Though Jazz is NOT the Cavs, there are some similarities. Hayward is kind of like “LeBron light” as he’s responsible for majority of Utah’s offensive flow and ranking 4th in PER for small-forwards, only behind Durant, James, and Anthony. In addition, Utah has two bigs in Favors and Gobert capable of completely dominating the paint against this undersized Celtics front-court. Utah outmuscled a physical team like the Grizzlies yesterday, outrebounding them 55 to 37, and scoring 42 PIP (Z-Bo was out though). They should have even more success tonight against the Celtics’ front-line. In addition, Utah is playing in a ‘revenge’ spot here as they’re 28-12 ATS in such scenarios (good at making adjustments when facing the same opponent). They’re also 18-11 ATS on the road, 14-10 ATS against teams with a losing record, and most importantly they’re 12-4-1 ATS in the last 17 games playing some excellent ball right now. I’ll back them tonight as well.
#2: Detroit Pistons +4.5
I know Davis is expected back today but this matchup won’t be the easiest on his shoulder. Both Monroe and Drummond are a load and if Davis has to bang with them in the paint all game long, his injured shoulder might become an issue once again. Regardless of Davis’ effectiveness, I like the spot for the Pistons here. Coming off 3 straight losses, this team has had 3-full days off to practice with one another and prepare for this one. They lost to the Pelicans earlier in the season in what was a ‘sandwich’ game for Detroit (coming off a win against Toronto and facing Indiana on the road following that previous matchup with NO). In that game, Ryan Anderson was extremely effective, stretching the floor for the Pellies and pulling Monroe out to the perimeter, and out of his comfort zone. Won’t be the case tonight as he’s out. In addition, NO is playing their 3rd game in 4 nights, though they did have a day-off yesterday. They’re coming off 5 straight very close games, and I’m not so sure they’ll match up with Detroit physically tonight. Detroit was -4 at home in the first game and now all of a sudden they’re +4.5 on the road in the rematch. That’s an 8.5 point swing and an over-adjustment by the bookmakers. I’ll grab the value here.
#3: Portland Trail Blazers -1
The Clippers have played extremely well since Griffin went down, but I think it’s going to start catching up to them soon. Hopefully as soon as tonight. LA is coming off a 4-game road trip, they’re playing their 3rd game in 4 nights (off a day-off though), and tonight will be their 8th game since the All-Star Break. By comparison, it’s only Portland’s 6th game since the ASB and they’ve had 2-days off prior to tonight. While Portland is in a much better ‘physical spot’, they’re also much healthier. Besides Griffin, LA has other key guys dealing with injuries. Barnes missed last game due to a hamstring pull, Crawford sat out the 2nd half against Minnesota due to a calf issue, and JJ Redick seems to be perpetually playing with a bunch of nagging ailments. With LA’s next game being @ Golden State 4 days from today I wouldn’t be surprised to see at least one of these guys rested (if not more), to ensure they’re at full strength going forward. Even if they all play, it will be very hard to beat the Blazers at less than 100%. Portland is 0-2 against the Clippers so far this year but both games have been extremely close – losses by 4 and by 6. Tonight is a great spot for them to exact some revenge. They have the size to battle Jordan in the paint (Lopez/Kaman), a dynamic PG who will force Paul to use up a lot of energy on both sides of the court (Lillard), and of course a huge difference-maker at PF who should absolutely abuse this Griffin-less LA squad (Aldridge). I expect a strong game from Portland tonight and I love their chances in this one.
Good Luck