Charlotte -1.5 at Orlando
Pick: Orlando +1.5
The Orlando Magic’s defense has seen a dramatic improvement since James Borrego took over. The new philosophy: Defend the paint at all costs, and live with teams making 3-pointers. This was the tradeoff the Magic have decided to make defensively. They will sacrifice giving up 3-point attempts, betting it is a lower percentage shot, and focus on protecting the paint. It is a strategy that has produced solid defensive results — the Hawks’ 101.8 offensive rating (last Friday) was still below their season average and just the fourth time a team has had an offensive rating of 100 or more since James Borrego took over.
There are sea-changes happening with this Orlando Magic club, and perhaps the market will not fully appreciate it until the team starts winning, they have come close but their have not matured enough to put away veteran-lead teams, such as Chicago, Miami, and Atlanta. Perhaps tonight that changes with Charlotte.
What is this sea-change about, well, let’s grab some excerpts from Zach Oliver’s article over at orlandopinstripedpost.com:
When the Orlando Magic fired head coach Jacque Vaughn, lead assistant James Borrego was thrown into the fire, taking over a struggling team for his first head-coaching job in the NBA. Borrego, who previously worked with the San Antonio Spurs and New Orleans Hornets as a video analyst and assistant coach, had 30 games to try to turn around the Magic's season. The task, which at the time seemed daunting, is slowly coming along, and Borrego is adjusting well to the increased responsibilities that a head coach faces.
Prior to the team's game with the Miami Heat on Wednesday, Borrego talked about the toughest part of taking over the job this late in the season.
"Really identifying what we could accomplish in a short period of time," said the 37-year-old. "When a change is made like that, in-season, you can’t change an entire team overnight, or in two days. So, our challenge has been to identify what we want to focus on right now in our last 30 games, and really on a day-to-day basis."
Borrego went on to talk about how the team has been focusing on defense, something they've wanted to do all season. "We’ve really looked at the defensive end, trying to really hammer that every single day, make that our identity, hang our hat there every single night, and it’s been a daily process for us."
It was clear from the beginning of training camp that the Magic wanted to pride themselves on their defense. However, under Vaughn, the team struggled mightily, posting the league's fifth-worst defensive rating: the Magic gave up 106.1 points per 100 possessions. In each of Vaughn's final 14 games--12 of which the team lost--Orlando gave up over 100 points, and put together some of their most sluggish performances of the year.
Fast-forward three weeks and the Magic have found their defensive groove. In the seven games Borrego has coached, the Magic have posted the fourth-best defensive rating in the league. Moreover, the team has done the best job defending the paint and fast breaks, giving up the fewest points per game in both categories over that stretch. They also sport the second-lowest opponent field goal percentage in that stretch.
And the dramatic differences don’t stop there. In eight games – two of which went into overtime – Orlando ranks first in the NBA in paint points allowed (32.8 ppg.), second in fastbreak points allowed (10.6 ppg.), third in points allowed (93 ppg.) and fourth in field goal percentage allowed (42 percent). To put that into perspective, Orlando ranked 24th in the NBA in points allowed (102.3 ppg.), 29th in field goal percentage allowed (47.1 percent) and 25th in 3-point percentage allowed (36.1 percent) before Borrego was put in charge.
Outside of the changes he’s made that have impacted the team's performance, Borrego has had to make a handful of adjustments of his own. When asked what the biggest adjustment he's had to make, Borrego said "everything."
"From practice, you’re the voice, you’re the face. You have to bring it every single day in practice. In-game is very different; it’s a completely different game for me. The number of decisions I have to make in game, after a game, after practice, from travel, every single decision is new for me. But my focus is on the team, trying to help them in practice, seeing where we can get better. And within the game, I’m just learning every single game. There’s a number of decisions you have to make: play calls, adjustments, matchups, rotations, when to take a timeout, how to interact with an official. All those things are new, and learning [them] on the fly.
Taking from David’s Malinksy’s article from Point Blank, we can see that the team is paying in:
From Victor Oladipo –
"He's doing a great job for us. He's holding us accountable. But at the same time, he's teaching us and he's being patient with us and he's making sure that we realize what our roles are." Willie Green - "I've kind of been saying it all along: that the talent on this team, it didn't represent our record. We just needed to have the principles in place, and give credit to Coach Borrego and the staff. They're doing a great job of just holding guys accountable."
And Channing Frye -
“We bought into what J.B. wants. I think this is who we are.”
Going back to that Orlando defense that gives up the 3-point shots and defends the paint so well; tonight as they face Charlotte, that might be the best fit possible, Charlottes ranks last in the league in 3PT shooting at 31.1%.
The last meeting: Charlotte avenged two earlier losses to Orlando, earning a 98-90 win on January 3rd. Kemba Walker tore up the Magic, as he always seems to, with 30 points, seven rebounds, six assists, and two steals, and the since-traded Gary Neal scored 16 in 19 minutes off the bench. The second quarter doomed Orlando: it managed only nine points to fall behind by 23 at halftime. Note, Charlotte will be without Walker (injured) and Neal (traded). So that helps out.
I like the confidence, the Magic have going, that defense should have a good night this evening vs. Charlotte, who is coming into this game on their last of 4 road games.
I like Orlando +1.5 this evening.
Analysis to follow....