2014 - 2015 NBA Record
34 – 22 @ 0% for +9.8 Units
-----------------------------
#1: Orlando Magic +4
#2: Brooklyn Nets +1.5
#3: San Antonio Spurs -11
#4: New Orleans Pelicans -2.5
#5: Portland Trail Blazers -8
Good Luck
Breakdowns
Fri, 11/21:
PHX @ PHI +9.5
Suns are playing their 4th straight road game, and have a game @ IND tomorrow. Philly is just trying to win a game right now. Boston was only a -6.5 road favorite @ PHI a few days ago and the Suns are a full 3 points higher. I backed Boston in their game against Phoenix on 11/19 because I felt both teams very even, so clearly I believe this line is inflated. Not backing the Sixers, but not laying an over-inflated number either.
PASS
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ORL @ CHA -3.5
Didn’t Charlotte make the playoffs last year and seemed to be one of the ‘up-and-coming’ teams in the league? Hornets are now 4-8 (Orlando is 5-8), and lost to IND, LAL, and NYK already this season. Kemba Walker is struggling with his shot (38.5% FG%), Lance Stephenson has been terrible (11.0 PER), their second based player according to PER (Michael Kidd-Gilchrist) is out, and they have a terrible bench. Neal is back today which should help but it’s not like he’s a difference-maker. Orlando is hoping to have Fournier back after he missed Wednesday’s game.
Lean: ORL +3.5
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MIL @ TOR -8.5
Do you know that Milwaukee now has beaten MEM, OKC, @ MIA, NYK, and @ BKN in the last 6 games? A few favorable scenarios helped (MEM in a tough physical spot, MIA missing key players, BKN just flat-out sucking), but this is still impressive. Now they take on the BEST team (currently) in the East, playing their 4th game in 6 days. The Raptors are playing their 7th straight home game and only their 3rd game in the last 7 days. They do have a game @ CLE tomorrow night, so might be in a look-ahead spot. Maybe that is why this line seems a few points short.
PASS
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DET @ ATL -6.5
Detroit is 1-6 in the last 7 games and coming off a 2-game home set where they lost to PHX and ORL. This team has covered their previous 3 road games so maybe we’ll see a stronger bounce-back effort here. At the same time, Hawks just lost at home to the Lakers. The Lakers!!! Line is fairly accurate in this one and I think I wasted more words on this one than I should have.
PASS
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BKN @ OKC -1.5
What the hell is going with the Nets? They’ve lost 5 straight games now. Of course those games came @ PHX, @ GSW, @ POR, vs MIA, and vs MIL in triple OT. The Bucks are an improved team, but still, that is probably the ONLY ‘bad’ loss here. Now they take on the short-handed OKC squad, a team they destroyed 116-85 earlier this season. Brooklyn is 4-1 against teams with a ‘losing’ record, so this could be a good matchup for them. The Thunder are on a 4-game losing streak, losing to teams like MIL (by 7), DEt (by 7 in OT though), UTA (by 17), and DEN (by 7). These are some of the worst teams in the league. Keep in mind that BKN had an average lead of +18.5 in their first meeting with Thunder, a number that is just ridiculously high. I know the game took place on Nov 3rd, and I think Reggie Jackson was just getting acclimated with the team, but even if you expect improvement today, Nets should still be the better team. Besides, anytime OKC is a listed ‘favorite’ you should look to fade them.
Lean: BKN +1.5
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BOS @ MEM -6.5
Grizzlies’ players are still dealing with the flu so not sure if everyone is available tonight (Lee will play / Allen left shoot-around early). Boston plays zero D though so hard to back them here against a top-5 defensive team on the road. The spread seems a bit low here but could be the reason for the uncertainty of some of MEM players.
PASS
=========
SAS @ MIN +10.5
Martin broke his hand. Young is in mourning. Pekovic is already hurt (made out of glass). Rubio is of course still out. I guess it’s Wiggins and more Wiggins time! Not a good combo against a team-oriented opponent like the Spurs.
Lean: SAS -10.5
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CLE @ WAS +1.5
I think the Wizards had this game circled on their calendars. You know Paul Pierce is looking forward to it. You know John Wall is looking to it. And of course Bradley Beal is looking forward to it, after proclaiming that Wiz (Him and Wall) have a better back-court than Cleveland (Irving + Waiters). They do, and Beal looked good in his first game back. Of course Cavs have lost two games in a row, and you know they’re just as hungry for this win. Probably not a good ‘angle’ to fade them.
PASS
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LAL @ DAL -10.5
Lakers won 2 in a row, @ ATL (no perimeter defense with Carroll out) and @ HOU (no Dwight Howard). Now they take on Dallas for their 3rd straight road game. Dallas has a game @ HOU tomorrow and Nowitzki injured his ankle last game so we’ll see how many minutes he’ll play tonight. Those factors are enough to make me avoid this one.
PASS
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NOP @ DEN +2.5
Denver somehow won @ CLE and then followed that up with a close home win against an undermanned OKC squad. The OKC win is not a surprise but was the Cavs one a fluke? Well, Cavs play horrendous defense while NO is league average. That could very well be the difference today. In addition, Denver is horrible defensively and NO ranks 5th in OffEff. Pellies have had 2-days off and this number really feels short here.
Lean: NOP -2.5
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CHI @ POR -8
The Bulls are in a bad spot here, playing on a b2b on the road, while missing three of their top-6 players: Rose, Gasol, and Hinrich. Gibson, Dunleavy, Noah, and Butler all played 34+ minutes yesterday and fatigue could be an issue against a well-rested Blazers squad. Plus, with Brooks starting at PG, the depth for the 2nd unit will be virtually non-existent. By the way, Batum should be back for POR for this one. Just like yesterday, Portland will have a strong advantage on the boards here which could be the difference in the game.
Lean: POR -8
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UTA @ GSW -12
Two well rested teams. Spread seems a bit high. Just no ‘angle’ to find in this one.
PASS