2014 - 2015 NBA Record
33 – 21 @ 0% for +9.9 Units
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#1: Miami Heat +4
#2: Sacramento Kings -3
Good Luck
Breakdowns
Thur 11/20:
LAC @ MIA +4
LA is on a b2b, playing their 3rd game in 4 nights, after traveling all of the way across-country for yesterday’s game. They’ll take on a well rested Miami team that had 2-days off prior to tonight. Yesterday the Clips were -5 @ ORL, and now a day after and in a more challenging physical spot, they’re -4 at Miami? Are the Heat on the same level as Orlando? Of course not, but Miami is dealing with some injury issues. Wade is out. Deng was listed as doubtful but did go through the shoot-around. Neither Deng nor McRoberts (nor Wade) played on Monday yet Miami still won @ BKN. McRoberts is expected back, and from what I know of Deng from his days with Chicago, if he’s able to get through a shoot-around, he should be able to play as well. Clippers have beaten OKC, LAL, UTA, POR, PHX, and ORL this seasion, as only POR is a ‘playoff team’ (OKC will be also when KD and RW return). Clippers are 1-4 SU and 0-5 ATS against true ‘playoff’ contenders, and now will play against another one on the road in a challenging spot. I believe they’re overvalued, especially if Deng suits up tonight.
Lean: MIA +4
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CHI @ SAC -3
Bulls are 6-0 SU on the road so easy pick on them tonight to continue their winning ways right? Well, no team can go 41-0 on the road in the NBA, so eventually everyone losses. So could today be the day when Chicago gets its first road loss? Quiet possibly. First, they will once again be without Pau Gasol and Rose. Rose is not a surprise and Chicago is pretty used to playing without him - they have been for over the last 2+ years. Gasol though is a bigger loss. He’s 2nd on a team with a 21.5 PER (behind Butler’s 22.6), he is the guy that enables Chicago to have such great ‘big man’ depth (Noah, Gasol, and Taj), and he’s also excellent at spacing the floor as he has a deadly mid-range jump shot, something that Noah does not. Gibson has a good jump-shot, but it’s not nearly as polished as Gasol. Bulls played well without Gasol @ LAC, but today could be a lot tougher. Second key factor is a huge rebounding differential between these two teams. Bulls rank 29th in DRB-rate while Kings are 1st on the offensive boards. In addition Kings are 2nd in DRB% while Bulls are 18th on the offensive boards. You don’t normally associate Chicago with ‘poor rebounding’ but that has been the case this year. A lot of that has to do with Noah not being 100% fit after his off-season knee surgery. He just doesn’t have the same lift right now, which could be a major issue against Cousins, one of the most dominant forces in the game today. Finally, maybe the reason that the Kings could win today’s game is that they’re a better team. Yes, Chicago has a +5.4 differential to Sacramento’s +0.5, but are the Bulls really 5-points better? Kings are 6-5 this year but only have one bad loss, @ OKC on the road. They have played GSW, POR, LAC, PHX, DAL, MEM, SAS, and NOP. That’s a lot of quality teams. Chicago has faced CLE (first game of the season for the Cavs who are still learning to play with one another), TOR, and LAC (who aren’t at the same level as last year). Besides these 3 teams, they’ve been playing squads like NYK, MIN, ORL, MIL, PHI, BOS, DET, and IND. The difference in strength of schedules are very drastic, so Kings’ +0.5 MOV is just as impressive, if not more so, than Chicago’s +5.4. Besides, Bulls lost to IND and BOS at home this year, so this team is capable of a let-down game at any moment. They’re coming off a big win @ LAC and will face a very strong POR team on the road tomorrow. Kings are off a bad home loss to the Pellies, so I’d expect a bounce-back here. I think this is a great spot for the home team and a prime spot for Bulls to get their first loss of the year.
Lean: SAC -3