Breakdowns:
Friday, 10/31:
MEM @ IND +6
David West, George Hill, and CJ Watson will once again be out for this game. In their place you will see Scola, Solomon hill, Sloan, CJ Miles, Rodney Stuckey, and Chris Copeland. Even though the Pacers beat the Sixers by 12 in their opening game, the average margin throughout was about +2 points. It was actually a 3-point game with 4 minutes left, when Pacers went on a bit of a run and Sixers managed to score 2 points from that point on. Now this Indiana lineup gets to face one of the better teams in the West. Z-Bo should own Scola on the block, while Hibbert could have a very tough time against Gasol in this one. I’d expect a lot of inefficient looks from the Pacers tonight, as they are stepping up in class for this game.
Lean: MEM -6
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CLE @ CHI -3.5
This one opened at -2.5, went to -4.5, and now is dropping again to about -3.5. Regardless of the line movement, the Cavs stunk the bed yesterday. LeBron was 5 for 15 (1 for 5 from 3PT), with only 17 points, and 8 turnovers. Of course it’s important to remember that this was his first start in Cleveland, emotions were very high, and it was a very difficult game to play in. Now on the road, and facing their top challenger in the East, I’d expect a much better effort from James and Co. Varejao and Love, have the size and rebounding prowess to match up with Chicago’s ‘typical’ size advantage in the post. Cleveland has the perimeter shooters to open things up offensively against a tough Chicago D. They also have solid depth to matchup with the Bulls there as well. The biggest mismatch though could be LeBron James of course. Jimmy Butler participated in the shoot-around but he is listed as GTD, so hard to predict if he’ll play. The drop in the spread, indicates to me that he most likely won’t. That’s going to be a major problem for the Bulls as neither Dunleavy nor Hinrich will be able to handle LeBron. Bulls did a good job against the Knicks and Carmelo, but NY doesn’t have the perimeter weapons that the Cavs do, especially since their best 3PT shooter Jose Calderon missed the game. Even if Butler plays, how effective will he truly be? Something tells me that we’re in for a great game here between two teams that are competing for the Eastern Conference crown. This very well should be a very close game and I think points are at a premium.
Lean: CLE +3.5
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PHI @ MIL -8.5
Oh, how quickly things change. Last year, the Bucks were -2.5 point home favorites in this matchup but a year later they’re a full 6-points higher. Of course these teams are very different. Milwaukee has gotten much better and though they lost to Charlotte in OT, they had an average lead of +8 points throughout that game. A horrific 4th quarter did them in. Still, you can’t discount the fact that Milwaukee was the ‘better’ team in that matchup, on the road nonetheless. Now they’ll take on the worst team in the league. Is it time to Fear the Deer? Could be. But there’s definitely no need to fear this terrible Sixers squad.
Lean: MIL -8.5
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POR @ SAC +5
The Kings really struggled against the Warriors in their first game, as DeMarcus Cousins was facing off against a premier defender in Bogut. Things should be a little easier against the Blazers who aren’t known for their D, and don’t have a rim-protector in the lineup. Portland is coming into this one off a pretty poor showing, as they struggled to shake an undermanned OKC squad in their first game. The final score indicates a rout of course, but that was mostly due to Thunder fading away in the 4th quarter. Prior to that, this was a ‘game’ throughout. Sacramento needs to show a better effort at home after getting blown out here by the Warriors, and Portland is looking at a 3-game home stand where they’ll face GSW, CLE, and DAL. They better not look-ahead though, since this Kings squad showed that they’re capable of hanging with the Blazers in the last 2 games of last season.
Lean: SAC +5
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SAS @ PHX +1
The Spurs are getting Leonard back for this one, while the Suns will be without PJ Tucker for one more game. Even so, this line indicates how much respect this Suns team is getting. It even dropped from -2 opener to -1 now. Phoenix wants to play an up-tempo, run-and-gun type of a game. Spurs would prefer to play in the half-court. Both teams are capable of raining down 3’s. This is a very tough game to decipher actually, as I see either team capable of winning it. Typically when you have such drastic difference in styles, and no situational angles to consider, you probably have to give the edge to the home team, as they’re more likely to dictate the tempo. If Leonard was out, I’d side with the Suns tonight. Too bad he’s coming back.
Lean: PASS
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LAC @ LAL +12
How do you face an undermanned OKC squad with Westbrook getting hurt in the 2nd quarter, and still barely winning the game? Well, maybe the Clips were looking ahead a bit to their showdown with the Lakers. No idea why they looked so bad yesterday, as the Clippers clearly were playing down to their competition. I don’t think we’ll see that tonight as it’s important for them to establish themselves as the ‘dominant’ LA team right away. That’s what the players expect, that’s what their coach expects, and of course that’s the expectation of the owner, who shelled out 2 billion for them in the off-season. Last season, Clippers lost to LA 116-103 to start out the season. They then proceeded to win the other 3 meetings, outscoring the Lakers by 36, 48, and 23. On a b2b and facing a Lakers squad that has gotten embarrassed in their first 2 games, might not be an ideal spot to back the Clips this year. Plus who knows what kind of ‘magic’ Kobe Bryant might come up with tonight. I’d stay away from this one but backing the Clips in the following meetings might definitely be a possibility as they are just way too dominant for the Lakers to handle.
Lean: PASS