NBA Free Premium Pick for Today:
NBA Pick: Detroit Pistons @ Minnesota Timberwolves
Rating: 3 units - Single Dime Play
Pick: Under 206 (Play it up to 203)
Odds: -104 / 1.96 on Pinnacle Sports OR -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
Detailed Write Up:
It was clear last night at Denver that Detroit is completely favoring defense on their lineups over offense by putting Joel Anthony on the court during crunch time. In fact, we even had some possessions where Joel, Drummond and Smith played at the same time in the Pistons' frontcourt. On the other side, Detroit also showed some terrible perimeter shooting, something expected given Meeks's injury. Detroit is also missing the currently suspended Monroe to give them some scoring touch near the basket. On the other hand, Detroit's defense is almost at an elite level. Denver's offense is totally based in attacking the rim, but they just couldn't do it effectively last night against the Pistons. For tonight's back to back game at Minnesota, I don't expect any miracle from Detroit's offense, so it will be their defense that will make them competitive tonight.
Minnesota is coming from a game last night at Memphis, where their interior defense was horrible. Gasol and Randolph combined 24-33 FG, while getting easy looks in a variety of ways (good post position, offensive rebounds, mid-range shots, etc.). However, Memphis with their good ball movement was the main responsible for these good looks. Now against the Pistons, things should be easier for the Wolves' interior defense, as Smith and Drummond aren't good shooters, especially in comparison with Gasol and Randolph. On the other hand, Minnesota is very turnover prone and this will be another problem on their offense tonight against a good Pistons defense. The Wolves also managed to have surprising good numbers from their outside shooting last night, but that's very unlikely to happen twice in two nights. I believe this totals line is too high for this match up and so, I'll take the Under in here.