Breakdowns:
Thur 10/30
WAS @ ORL +4
The big factor here is the return of both Nene and DeJuan Blair. Without Frye and Oladipo, Orlando is very dependent on their inside game with Vucevic and Harris as their only dependent long-range weapon is Fournier. This plays into Washington’s hands, who are missing a number of key long-ranger shooters of their own. With Nene and Blair in the middle, along with Gortat, Gooden, and Humphries, Wizards have the bodies to bang in the post and cause issues for this horrible Orlando offense. Magic is coming off a game where they allowed 62 rebounds, 26 offensive boards, and 64 PIP (Points In the Paint). Washington should be able to dominate in a similar fashion today. I know Wiz are on a b2b on the road, but their game last night was at Miami so it’s not like they have to travel far here. Plus this early in the season, b2b’s aren’t as significant.
Lean: WAS -4
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NYK @ CLE -12
What a dreadful performance by the Knicks last night. They shot 37% from the field, 18% from the 3PT line, had only 28 PIP, and got dominated on the boards. But the big factor in tonight’s game is NOT their offense but their defense. They allowed Chicago to shoot 51% from the floor, register 21 assists, and attempt 30 FT’s. Remember, Bulls were one of the most inefficient offenses in the league last year. Sure they are better with Rose and Gasol in the lineup, but New York’s D still showed how truly bad they are. Against a Cavs team that is projected to lead the league in offensive efficiency, the Knicks might get destroyed once again. Keep in mind that NY’s starting PG, Jose Calderon, was a late scratch last night, and he’s a very big loss. His shooting and ability to run the offense cannot be replaced on this team. I’m assuming he should be OK to play tonight but that’s something to keep an eye on. Cavs have a big game @ Chicago tomorrow night, so I’m wondering if some of their key starters’ minutes might be managed a bit tonight. Remember, Bulls and Cavs are going to compete for the #1 seed in the East, so each of those 4 matchups is crucial. Also, let’s remember that this is the first regular season game that this new-look Cavs team is playing together. Can we expect them to be a juggernaut from the get-go, or does chemistry development still matter?
Lean: PASS
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DET @ MIN -4.5
Last night, against a Denver team that is returning a number of players from major injuries (Gallinari, Robinson, McGee) and is far from 100%, Detroit managed to score 79 points on 37% shooting from the field. They were ineffective moving the ball offensively (48% AST%), had only 6 fast-break points, and of course most importantly couldn’t shoot the ball at all. Nuggets were a bottom-10 team last year in defensive efficiency, and their personnel barely changed in the off-season. Clearly, this Pistons team has a ways to go on the offensive end. By comparison, Minnesota shot 45% from the field, 50% from the 3PT line, had 15 FBP’s, 19 offensive rebounds, and overall played very well offensively. Anytime a team can break 100 on a tough Memphis D, you have to be impressed. Detroit once again will be without Monroe, their only decent bench player is DJ Augustin, so it’s hard to see this team do much better on a b2b then they performed last night. I know it’s only 1 game so far, but Minnesota seems like a better and deeper team right now.
Lean: MIN -4.5
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UTA @ DAL -10.5
The Jazz lost by 11 at the end, but they played a much closer game than that throughout. They had 62 PIP, shot a solid 47% from the field, and were +5 in the TO department. The issue was their inability to defend the 3PT shot, as Houston was 14 for 27 (52%) from downtown. By comparison, Utah was only 3 for 18 (17%). This could be an issue tonight, against a Dallas team that has a ton of players capable of hitting the 3. In addition, Utah is not a very deep team while Dallas has a lot of depth. Playing on a b2b and after a strong home effort against the Rockets, this could be a bit of a let-down game for the Jazz. Dallas is seeking their first win of the season and I would expect them to play well at home.
Lean: DAL -10.5
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OKC @ LAC -12
You have to tip your cap to Russell Westbrook, who was dynamite last night. He scored 38 points, dished out 6 assists, and went to the FT-line 16 times. Of course without much of a supporting cast, him and the rest of the Thunder ran out of gas in the 4th quarter, got outscored 31 to 12 and lost the game by 17 points. Now they’ll be playing on a b2b, both on the road, and facing a Clippers team that is a real title contender this season. Neither Reggie Jackson nor Jeremy Lamb will suit up for this one, and of course KD will be out as well. Remember the playoff series between these teams last year? The average margin of victory was +0.8 PPG in OKC’s favor. That’s how close all of those games were. Now the Thunder will be without key players in KD and Jackson, as well as Lamb who is expected to take a step forward this year. Clippers have added depth this offseason by bringing in Hawes and Farmar, to go with Crawford and Glen Davis off the bench, and they should have lineup advantages throughout today’s game. In addition, hard to see Westbrook having as good of a game as he had last night. He was facing Lillard, one of the worst defending PG’s in the league. Today he’ll be going up against Chris Paul, one of the better defenders. Tougher matchup, b2b on the road, and a depleted roster for the Thunder. Another DD win for their opponent tonight?
Lean: LAC -12