All season long I have been tracking every teams ATS record as well as their O/U record to see if teams played in predictable patterns of outcome. I've seen something this year that has really been gold. When a team goes on a run of seven or more like decisions in a row whether it is wins, losses, overs or unders, the streak always breaks twice; meaning that the 7 wins ATS will be followed by two losses in a row. The eight overs in a row will be followed by two unders in a row. Here's the last four times this situation has happened:
ATL had 14 W's in a row, it was followed by two L's in a row
Toronto played 7 U's in a row and it was followed by two O's in a row.
IND had nine L's in a row and it was followed by two W's in a row
HOU played 7 O's in a row and it was followed by two U's in a row.
Tonight we have the heat, which in their last game ended a streak of 11 - U in a row. Tonight is game two after the streak and history tells me to expect the over again tonight in the heat game. That is one pick I know for sure I will have.
The other games are still up in the air, but this is how I am leaning:
PHILLY vs MINN
MINN is on a 3 W streak which means they are playing well compared to their weight in the spread calculation. Philly has not scored more than 92 points in about two weeks and they have not broken a hundred since before Christmas. This explains Philly's streak of 7 U's in a row. We will be looking for this streak to break and then bet on it breaking again in the next game. These two teams played this year already with Philly going to MInny and winning as a +7 dog in a very low scoring game. Given the total opened at 193 and immediately went down to 191 there is no reason to believe the unders streak will end tonight either.
LEANING: MIN and UNDER
ATL vs, PORT
Neither team has a significant streak going ATS or with their total. Atlanta has won straight up but not covered the last two ATS after their incredible 14 W run. These two teams played once already with ATL going to PORT and winning a shootout by 7 points. ATL has an incredible SU winning streak still intact, all the due betters are going to love PORT tonight because they will be the best team ATL has faced probably and the streak is going to end soon. Tonight the due betters get to easily pull the trigger on a good team getting 7 points. Looks to easy.
LEANING: Staying away
TOR vs BRK
TOR is on a 3 games in a row overs now since their streak of 7 - U. These teams played once this year in TOR where the Raptors won handily and BRK only scored 89 and the game stayed under. I didn't find anything that stuck out at me in this matchup. My gut tells me that TOR keeps their overs streak going.
LEANING: STAY AWAY
HOU vs BOS
These two played once this year in HOU already where the rockets won 104 -90. Game stayed under and the rockets covered. Neither team comes in with any significant streak versus the spread, but there is an interesting thing about Boston's schedule. Teams that go on a five game road trip or more, tend to not cover the spread that first game back home. Boston is playing their first game home tonight after a long 6 game road trip. The first game in HOU was low scoring, I see the opposite in this game. Both teams could get to triple digits.
LEANING: HOU and OVER
SAC vs CLV
Interesting game. They already played once with SAC blowing CLV out by 20. Game stayed under. Each team has a few mini streaks going. Sac has a 3 - L and a 3 - Ov going while CLV has a 3 - U going. Game has a lot of ????? around it as James may not play, Love is questionable. Cousins is questionable.
Line has jumped from CLV -5 to CLV -8 even with out James or maybe Love, this shows me they are making SAC a more and more attractive bet. Total has dipped as well which is expected. Too many questions for me to lay money on it when I'm in must win mode.
LEANING: STAY AWAY
LAC vs NO
These two teams played in LA already and it was a high scoring game that the LAC covered a spread of -9. Neither team has an active streak ATS. The total looks totally fishy. Opened at 200 and is dropping. This is a West Coast matchup with one of the highest scoring teams in the league. What Joe Public is betting the under exactly? The big problem with the NBA is that cutesy picks like taking the under here, don't always win. The cutesy picks work much better in NFL.
LEANING: STAY AWAY
DAL vs MIA
Here is what I think is the game of the night. MIA is playing game two after an 11 - U streak was broken in their last game vas MIL. Teams with streaks longer than seven have a high probability of the streak breaking two times in a row when it does break. That tells me that this game should go over the total. Not to mention these teams played already and it was an unders game. In the out of conference matchups where teams only play twice a year, a lot of times you will see the two games be opposite of each other in terms of pace and score. That's not a hard fast rule and teams play two unders and two overs games all the time, but the majority of these twice a year matchups player one game over and one under. These two played an unders game in game one.
NOTE: Taking the under here is a cutesy pick. Line opened up very small, 194,and has plunged to 190.5. No Joe Public is pounding the under in a Mavs game especially one where the line is already low nineties. No way. Taking the under here would be a sound way to go against public thinking.
DOUBLE NOTE: I've been wrong in Mavs games all year long. They have been my nemesis team all year.
That being said, I have to go on what my eyes have seen and that is long streaks ended with two games in a row going the other way.
BETTING FOR SURE: Overs
G.S. vs UTAH
GS has a 4 - Ov going. Utah is on a 3 - U. These teams have played twice. The game in Utah went over and the game in GS went under. This is the second game in UTAH they will play a second game in GS probably in the second half. The last four game totals for GS were: 239, 227, 225, and 224.
Line opened up at 203.5 and immediately jumped to 205.5, I think this is one of those games where I will want to chase the movement and take the over in this game. I think the line tells me that GS streak of 4 overs will continue and UTAH's streak of three unders will come to an end.
LEANING: OVER
CHI vs PHX
Bulls are coming off a double OT loser last night and this will be their third game in four days. Their first two legs of the road trip had point totals of 224 and 241 last night. Their legs have to be tired. Bulls have to get gassed in the second half of this game. What scares me? Total opened up at 210.5 and went to 211.5. The average handicapper is going to stumble across what I did. Plain and simple research shows that CHI should be a tired team tonight, but the total is going up. Something ain't right there. Looks to easy to take the under, but there is no way CHI has to be a little worn out.
LEANING: PHX and UNDER
Not sure which of these picks, other than the Heat total, will make the final roster of picks tonight. I want to see what the line does all throughout the day and see what happens. I will be back later with the actual games I'm putting the money on.