Sometimes I really think we will only ever beat this thing is by working together. Right now sports betting has us all divided. Everyone goes off into their little corner and has their own process for handicapping. Handicappers go on different things: schedule, spread, trends, line movements, public consensus, or just plain gut. There needs to be a platform where cappers can donate their process because very few of us are looking at the whole picture. We are all capturing different pieces to the story, but together maybe the whole story comes together.
I'll donate a piece. One thing I look at is streaks ATS or O/U in the NBA. I don't always bet on the streak to end, sometimes I bet on it to continue. Which way to bet will depend on which way the line moves. Here are the longest streaks in the NBA today:
ATLANTA HAWKS: Won 14 straight ATS
Line is 18 right now, which is pretty much as high as it gets in the NBA. I would not be betting for this streak to end today, but laying 18 in the NBA for me is never a good option.
MIAMI HEAT: played 10 UNDERS games in a row
Line opened at 187 and dipped down to 184.5. So, for any 'due' player the beat would start to look better and better. This tells me that this streak will most likely continue. This will wind up being one of my picks.
CLEVELAND CAVS: Won 5 straight ATS
Line opened at 2.5 and has gone to 3. There's action both ways in the game. Cleveland has shown that they can not always play well at home. A hunch tells me that CLV will continue their streak. I doubt the pick will make my roster.
ORLANDO MAGIC: Lost 4 in a row ATS
Line opened ORL +2 and still is. Indiana is a bad team as well, I think this is a game that a 'due' player would jump on. IND is a bad team that is a road fave playing a team that has L - L - L - L in their last 4 ATS record. That means I think there is a good chance that this streak continues and IND will probably make my roster of games.
DALLAS MAVS: Played 4 UNDERS in a row
Dallas is usually an OVERS players dream. They are one of those teams that routinely score more than 100 and let up more than 100. The line opened at 201 and has dropped to 198.5. So, for any 'due' player, this would be a dream play to bet Dallas goes over here. So, I think the unders streak will continue. Don't know if it will make the cut or not yet. I hate taking the unders in West Coast games.
TORONTO RAPTORS: Played 6 Unders games in a row
Line opened at 204.5 and went to 200. Toronto averages 105 pts per game and gives up 100 per game. Det has a little better D but less O. This is a stay away for me, nothing significant stands out.
DENVER NUGGETS: Lost 4 in a row ATS
Playing Washington. Line opened Den +1 and now is Den +2.5. I think that's from record bettors. People seeing that Wash is 29 - 15 and Denver is 18 - 25. I think Denver busts the streak today. I'll think about adding them to the roster.
GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS: Won 4 straight ATS
Line opened at 15.5 and went to 17.5. Never lake laying or taking spreads like that. I think the streak will end but wouldn't bet on it.
HOUSTON ROCKETS: Played 7 overs games in a row
Line opened at 205 and now is at 207. Everything is set up for the streak to continue. Lakers are bad on D, Hou O has been good. LA at home so they will score better than their average. I think a 'due' player would want to steer clear of the game, which tells me that this streak will probably end. Considering about adding it to the roster.
From the streaks I have decided to take these plays: Under Mia, IND, Den, Under Dallas.
I come into today -1140. I am going to send it in today just like I planned and I have the pro bowl later if I need to get more action in. Here is my full roaster of plays:
IND -2
TOR -7.5
DEN +3
UNDER 184.5 MIA/CHI
OVER 212 CLV/OKC
UNDER 198.5 DAL/NO
OVER 207 IND/ORL
If anyone has any other pieces of info that they look at specifically then feel free to post it so everyone can consider it before wagering. The more of the story you put together, the more informed opinion you will make.