I’ll be the first to admit that I was not a good NBA bettor when I first moved to Las Vegas back in 1998. It took me many years to develop my own system that worked. The core of that system is very simple to understand. The betting markets lock in their NBA power ratings within the first six weeks of the season. Any teams that ‘morph’ thereafter are strong ‘bet on’ or ‘bet-against’ candidates for months to come.
Here are two prime examples from last year. After trading Rudy Gay last December, Toronto proceeded to go 15-3 ATS over the course of the next five weeks. As an underdog, they closed out the season with a 16-5 ATS mark in their last 21 tries. Once Indiana lost their mojo following the All Star break they went 3-22 ATS over the next eight weeks. Extended pointspread streaks of both excellence and failure happen every single season. My clients and I bet these streaks repeatedly, cashing bet after bet supporting and fading a relatively small handful of ‘mispriced’ teams; teams that often stay ‘mispriced’ in the markets for months.
When the season begins, I react quickly to early results. A great example from last year was betting on Phoenix out of the gate, when the markets were still viewing the Suns as a bottom feeder like they were in 2012-13. Phoenix went 22-7-1 ATS over the first two months of the campaign, with my clients and I cashing on them repeatedly during that span.
That’s how I got hot and stayed hot for the first four months of the season last year, opening up the campaign with a 74-44 (63%) mark through the first week after the All Star Break. I got hot again in the playoffs, finishing on a 25-12 (68%) run including a perfect 5-0 mark in the Finals.
Get onboard with a full season package right here, right now: /pregamepros/pro-bettor/bettor.aspx?id=212043#capper
If you have any questions or comments, please post them right here in this thread and I’ll be happy to respond. Best of luck!
Teddy