Football Picks: The Mush's Week 8 NFL Fades

offline

offline
Posts from Handicappers on hiatus

Football Picks: The Mush's Week 8 NFL Fades


If you want your wallet to look like George Costanza's, don't follow The Mush.

I'm a huge Seinfeld fan to the point where 40 percent of my spoken language comes from Seinfeld episodes (The other 60 percent comes from movie lines). One of my favorite Seinfeld episodes ever is when George Costanza does the opposite of everything he normally does because every decision he's ever made has been wrong. As Jerry said, "If every decision you've ever made has been wrong, then the opposite would have to be right."

I have this friend who has been gambling for 20 years and I think he's collected twice in his whole life. Luckily, he offers other services that provide a steady income. I won't get into specifics but let's just say he doesn't fill out a tax return at the end of the year. This guy is such a pear-shaped loser, that he's become known as "The Mush" to those of us who know him best. You want to see square. The only time this guy bets an underdog is when it's one of those obvious underdogs like the Cowboys getting two-points at Philly or something like that. People often ask me, "How do you win at sports gambling." While I never give them this answer, the obvious response is "Fade The Mush." The funny thing is, this guy actually thinks he's a good gambler. I once asked him, "When is the last time you collected?" His response was, "I collect all the time. You are the jinx. Every time I tell you my plays, I lose."

So I called The Mush this week and he's agreed to give me all of his plays this NFL season so I can track them. I got to thinking and I figured, why not share these losers with the Pregame community? So every week I will call The Mush on Thursday and ask him his plays, then post them here. Like I said, this guy is a born loser.

Thanks to a late safety in the Giants game, The Mush managed to squeak out a 2-2 week, which included an easy win on the Titans as his best bet. As I looked over the card this week, I saw what I think is going to be a tough day for Mush on Sunday. Let's see if I'm right. Here are The Mush's plays for Week 8:

Ravens -9 (Best Bet)
This one surprised me a little bit but like I said, this is a tough card for a guy who bets the way Mush does. I understand the theory that the Ravens will shut down the Raiders but I'm not sure if I want to jump all over a team that struggles to score nine points, forget about trying to cover that number. That didn't discourage Mush. "At best the Raiders will score a touchdown. That means if the Ravens score 17, I win. Easy money." In a stunning upset, 76 percent of the people agree with Mush on this play.

Fade The Mush: Raiders +9

Bills -1
I actually thought this would be Mush's best bet. The Bills are flying high after beating the Chargers and now must travel to Miami to face a team with a losing record that just lost at home last week to the Ravens. What a surprise, they suckered Mush into this play. I think Miami wins this one but Mush disagreed. "What are they going to do? Run that college offense you like so much? Teams have figured that out. The Bills are the much better team here and unless Miami breaks out the Wishbone, they have no chance." The people chose Mush over me on this one, as 83 percent of the public is backing Buffalo.

Fade The Mush: Dolphins +1

Patriots -9
After dismantling the Broncos on Monday night, the Pats prepare to take on a suddenly red-hot Rams team, winners of two straight. A lot of people feel like the Patriots found themselves last week and not to anyone's surprise, Mush is one of those people. "Now that the Patriots have finally learned to live without Tommy...Rider, I think they are going to go on a run. Besides, I think you were holding that team back. The Cowboys laid down last week. The Rams still suck and it will show against the Pats." So far, 67 percent of the public is with Mush in believing the Pats winning ways will continue.

Fade The Mush: Rams +9

Redskins -7.5
The Skins haven't fared that well as a big favorite the last two weeks but that doesn't scare Mush at all. I think the Redskins will be a great dog play this year but I'm not sold on them as a favorite. I had them last week against Cleveland and while we might have won if Clinton Portis didn't fumble, it was still an ugly game. But according to Mush, it won't matter this week. "What's more likely to happen? The Lions win a game or you go 8-0 with your picks? I think we found out. Detroit will win one game this year and it won't be this week. Redskins roll." Not much of a surprise that 72 percent of the money is coming in against the Lions.

Fade The Mush: Lions +7.5

Jets -13.5
The Jets are almost a two touchdown favorite, despite losing last week at Oakland. I guess that shows the state of the Kansas City Chiefs right now. I'm not sure that the Jets should ever be this high of a favorite but the way KC is playing right now, I can't argue betting against them. Neither can Mush. "I'm just fading the Chiefs. Fade the Chiefs every week and you will win money." Well, it looks like 66 percent of the people are going to win money this week.

Fade The Mush: Chiefs +13.5

Mush's Season Record: 13-18
Best Bets: 4-3

  • hey where are the week nine picks????

  • Thanks guys. I'm glad you are enjoying it. Mush is known for having a really tough time around Thanksgiving. Just an FYI.

  • 2-3 I meant!  It pays to fade the MUSH.

  • A very lucky 2-2 for the Mush.  His best bet was strong though.  I am learning a lot from the MUSH.  Thanks for the post TR!

  • Tommy, I love your writing skills; the way you put things. I find your friend's explanations funny as all hell!

  • SOMETHINGS GOTTA GIVE !!!!!!!!!!!!!! I LIKE ALL OF THE OPPOSITES OF MUSH's PLAYS !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! G L !

  • I will take those Dolphins +1!