Rider's Big ML Dog of the Day for Saturday

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Rider's Big ML Dog of the Day for Saturday

 
Tommy Rider is flying high with the New Mexico Lobos as his Big ML Underdog Play of the Day.

Now that I live in Las Vegas, every week I head down to the casino and place $100 on one big ML underdog that I think has at least a shot to pull off an upset. These are usually dogs of 10 points or more. It's just something I've always loved doing in college football and basketball. Last year I hit ECU in its Hawaii Bowl win over Boise State. It may not win often but there is something about the thrill of winning on a big ML dog that really draws me in. So I was at the Hilton Friday placing my $100 bet and Matty suggested that I blog my selection every Saturday because he thinks there are others out there that enjoy taking shots on a big dog to win outright. This week I think I have one of my stronger plays, so let's see if we can hit it.

New Mexico $100 to win $320

Tulsa's offense has been unstoppable against two creampuff defenses and today they take a big step up in class against the Lobos. Tulsa QB David Johnson has been remarkable against UAB and North Texas, tossing for 750 yards, nine touchdowns and no interceptions in his first two starts. He's hitting 79 percent of his passes and leads the nation in pass efficiency. Oh yeah, Tulsa also runs the ball for 187.5 rushing yards per game and is averaging 50.5 points. In other words, scoring isn't really going to be a problem for the Golden Hurricane against anyone. 

But the reason I think the Lobos have a chance here is because of Tulsa's defense. Against two terrible teams, Tulsa is giving up 224 yards per game on the ground, ranking them 110th in rush defense. That's a huge problem when facing the power rushing attack of New Mexico. Rodney Ferguson is a stud and is coming off a 154-yard performance against Arizona. Ferguson is the kind of grind-it-out back that gets 5-yards a carry and can really keep the opposing offense on the sidelines. 

Against Arizona - another explosive passing attack - New Mexico used its strong ground game and aggressive defense to pull the upset. The Lobos forced five turnovers and sacked Arizona quarterback Willie Tuitama three times. If the Lobos defense can play like that again this week, they have a shot.

Two things really stick out to me when making this play. First, I have the team with the better rushing offense and rush defense catching double-digits. That is a big factor I look at when capping games. If New Mexico can control the clock with long drives, while scoring points, it puts a lot of pressure on Tulsa's offense.

The other thing I like about this matchup is New Mexico has already played three tough teams in TCU, Texas A&M and Arizona. Meanwhile, we don't know how good Tulsa is because they fattened up on two of the worst teams in Division I football. Again, this is another factor I put a lot of stock in when breaking down a game.

So while it's going to be a tall order for New Mexico to go on the road and win at Tulsa, I think they have the ingredients to pull off the upset. That's why the Lobos are my BIG ML DOG OF THE DAY.

  • I have to agree with you there. I'm not very interesting at all. Thanks Chuck, I'm just trying to learn all I can. I'll take your remarks and learn from them. Take care.

  • TR,

            Don't take this Personally. Have you EVER Paid for a Pro Pick? And the Selection Lost?  Did you have your OWN Handicapping Service? Have you EVER WON any Handicapping Championships? Did Pregame run a Help Wanted Ad...Need Pro Handicapper,,,NO Experience Necessary! And You Applied! I READ all the Pro Cappers ANALYSIS on this Site....trying to get a "Read" on who knows there "SHIT"... Who's in "THE ZONE" I've read  so much about Marco over the last 25yrs....I  KNOW when he's on the RIGHT Side( 90% of the Time) and when He's NOT. Handicapping is LEARNED Skill. I'm actually HELPING you right Now by telling you this. Take Care and Good Luck to You!

  • Tommy,

    Your name was put out all over the place in a thread that you encouraged. You fanned the flames on that one from your previous co-workers who revealed more than just your real name. But now you don't want your "real" name used? I recall that you were Red Rider, but needed to "use your 'real' name and becameTommy Rider. Why the obfuscation? It's a sincere question. I stopped viewing Pregame over the baseball season and have noticed upon my recent return JJ being pretty careful about not bashing--yet you seem to take a cheap shot. What did you hope to accomplish with that remark? I'm finding you increasingly uninteresting.

  • Chuck, you made your point. You don't think I'm qualified. Maybe I am and maybe I'm not. Maybe I'll be a great capper or maybe I'll be doing something else in the future. Maybe you are right. But all I can say is I have never mislead anyone since I came here. Do I talk to people around the league? Yes. Does that guarantee winners? No. I'm trying my best to prove myself. I respect your opinion. I'm sure there are a lot of people who agree with you and you certainly have the right to speak your mind. Like I said, I just ask you call me by the name I use here. That's all I ask. I enjoy reading your posts and I hope you do well. Whether you like me or not, I would never root for you or anyone else to lose. I have tremendous respect for anyone who puts their picks out there and tries to beat the books. All I can promise is that I'll work hard and try my best. In a year from now, we'll see if that was good enough. Take care.

  • TR,

           And DON"T compare me to that DEGENERATE SOB JJ. First & Final Warning.

  • TR,

          I'm NOT Bashing YOU! You remind me of my Kid Brother (He's 40). Great Guy, Loves to talk Sports. Great at "One Liners" & 'Quoting Movie Lines" Can't tell a "Live Dog" from a Dead One. Most of the Guys on this Forum Selling Picks are EXPERIENCED Pro Gamblers or Handicappers(Matty?) WHAT Qualifies YOU?

         ,

  • That's your opinion Chuck and your entitled to it. I do disagree that a team not practicing well all week is valuable info. That's just my opinion. I bring to the table what I can. If you don't think it's valuable, that's for you to decide. But please don't use my real name on this board again. Do you understand me? First and final warning. There are reasons we don't do that so you can bash me all you want but use the name I use here. I think that's fair. Good luck.

  • Tom Casal,

                           I wish you ALL the Luck in the World.  But you're no more Qualified to be a Pro Bettor, Selling Picks than Bayou Boy! "I got this Buddy who works for the Raiders, He said they had a Terrible Practice this week" Some GREAT NFL Insider Info! LOL

  • Chad, I'm starting to think you are my long lost brother. I think you watch as much TV as I do. I only know two other people who would have gotten such an obscure movie reference. Great work.

  • That would be The Breakfast Club, Tommy.  What's my prize, a nice greasy pork sandwich served in a dirty ashtray?

  • Thanks Chuck. I can see why you don't like me. I mean, with me coming into your threads wishing you luck and all. You and your boy JJ should get together and go bowling. (Chad, what movie is that from?)

  • Picking Winners for a Living......Little more DIFFICULT than writing about Football! LOL

  • Tough pick. Wasn't even close Paul. I deleted your post because of a certain word you used. You can come on here and say anything you want. I think it shows how important I really was in NE to have you guys still following me two months later. Thanks for being a fan and following my work. I really appreciate it. Enjoy the season. Tough break with Brady.

  • Wow, Tommy. You in the business of deleting negative posts? You can be a hack as a capper but that doesn't mean you have to censor people who disagree with you and want to voice their opinion. I didn't think I was dealing with John Tomase Jr. here.

    Tulsa 56, New Mexico 14. Let the result speak for itself.

  • Hey Tommy,  Your picks have been awesome!  I'm up so much money I can't even count it all.   Keep up the good work!