Tommy Rider is ready to fly high with a winning football season.
I want to thank Matty, Marco and the rest of the Pregame team for
getting my football picks package up over at the Pregame Pros. After
looking over my picks page I asked myself, why would anyone buy picks
from me if they don't know anything about what I stand for and how I go
about my business? I know I certainly would never buy football picks
from a guy I knew nothing about. And while I've been posting on the
forums for a while now, I thought it would be a good idea to officially
introduce myself to the Pregame community and let everyone know what
I'm all about. So, here are some things you should know about Tommy
Rider before deciding if you want to follow me this football season:
have worked as a sportswriter in the Patriots organization for the past
four years. I'm not in the mob and I have no idea if a game is "fixed"
or not. What I do have is contacts all around the NFL and CFB that can
give me real information, unlike an ESPN for instance. One of the
things I loved about my job with the Patriots was watching people on
ESPN trying to predict whether or not a guy would play that week. What
a lot of fans don't know is the biggest way coaches manipulate the
injury report is by traveling players who are hurt. If a player doesn't
travel with the team, it's announced publicly the day before the game.
But what a lot of coaches do is bring along players who they say are
"questionable," even though they have no chance of playing that week. I
remember a couple of years ago, Ben Watson was going to be out for a
few games with a shoulder injury. However, the Pats kept bringing him
on road trips and the morning before one game ESPN reported that it
looked like he would be in the starting lineup. Meanwhile, 15 minutes
earlier, I saw Watson at the team hotel with his arm in a sling while
the rest of the players were headed to the stadium. So, with my
contacts around college and pro football, I can get facts about certain
players and teams, while most media outlets like ESPN are basically
--I'm a tireless worker. Last night I was up at 2:00 in
the morning with four magazines open and the computer on my lap trying
to find ways that NC State would be able to run the ball on South
Carolina. I like the Wolfpack catching close to two touchdowns in that
game but it's imperative for them to run the football well to have a
chance. I have no interests other than doing this. Besides working at
Pregame, the only other thing I do all week is go to the gym. I spend
virtually all of my free time breaking down games and trying to find an
edge that could be the difference between winning and losing. When I
lose a bet, it's not from a lack of effort on my part, I can promise
you that much.
--I'm a lifelong gambler. I have been around gambling my entire
life. My father was the worst kind of gambler. He missed my birth
because he was in a dimly lit garage player cards. Over the years, I'm
been fortunate enough to win a lot more than a lose but that wasn't
always the case. I know what it's like to be down a lot of money. I
know that feeling you get in the pit of your stomach. You are talking
about a guy who once inquired about getting a fake death certificate
because I owed a bookie so much money. Like I said, I was able to get
to a point in my life where I actually learned how to gamble and avoid
those kinds of situations. However, I know the mind of a gambler. I
know how most of you work. I understand that a lot of you won't use the
money management systems we preach. With me, I'm not just selling my
picks, I'm selling myself. Listen, we all know I make money when I sell
picks. That's no secret. But I'm the type of guy that's going to take
the extra time to help you out. If you are in trouble, let me know and
we can talk about it. Hey, I'm a low volume player. Maybe I give you
two picks in CFB and they go 2-0 but you bet four more on your own and
lost them all. If you buy my picks, you don't just get the games I give
out, you get my help and opinions on anything gambling related. I don't
want my clients to ever search "Death Certificate" on the Internet. lol
bet all my own plays. This is very important to me. How can I ask any
of you to put money on a play if I'm not confident enough in it to bet
it myself? I wouldn't even want to buy picks from a capper who wasn't
betting their own plays. It doesn't make any sense. I'm a true gambler.
I'm going to be betting on sports my entire life. But in this business
I get an opportunity to help others just like me, and that's what is so
exciting and rewarding about this job.
--I don't win every week.
I wish like hell I could hit 80 percent of my bets but that's not going
to happen. Unfortunately, we are going to have a couple of bad weeks
along the way. That's a certainty. However, what I don't do is chase my
losses. Like I said, I'm a low volume guy. So if I go 0-3 on Saturday
and I only like two games for two units each on Sunday, that's what I'm
playing. We may not be able to make up for Saturday's losses that
weekend, but I'm not going to put us further in the hole just so I can
say I had a winning week either. It's not fair to you and quite
frankly, I have no interest in running my business that way. So, while
I will have a losing weekend here and there, I try to limit the damage
so our winning weeks far outweigh the losing ones.
I bet the entire time I was working for the Pats. I couldn't say it publicly because I worked for the Pats. All the guys knew I bet on the games. It was no secret. But the NFL frowns on that sort of thing. I was in the stands of the Super Bowl unloading on the over. Thank God for that, huh? I knew the line of every college and pro game on the spot. Of course I was still betting.
And Jumper, I've always been honest with you, so I don't think you need new members for that. I spoke the truth so anything these people want to say, they can say. They are entitled to their opinion just like I am. It doesn't bother me a bit. If you are getting enjoyment out of it, God bless you. To each is own I guess.
God I love all these new members! I love people that tell ya how they feel and don't feel the need to placate people they don't like. Yeah for honesty!
"I bet all my own plays. This is very important to me. How can I ask any of you to put money on a play if I'm not confident enough in it to bet it myself?"
Tom, on PFW in Progress you said you were done with betting. So were you lying to us then or to your new readers now? I don't mean to sound like a bitter PFW fan. I loved you on that show and would consider listening to you on a Pregame podcast (which you mentioned you would be starting). I just want you to be as brutally honest about yourself as you were in your assessment of the Patriots organization in a recent blog post. Potential customers ought to know whether you're really placing bets based on your recommendations. If so, that runs counter to things you've said in the past, so I think many people would appreciate a clarification.
Ya, I agree about Oregon this year....they should win 9 games and just hope they can actually WIN a meaningful Bowl game for once........we shall see...
Thanks a lot Goodfella. I look forward to your Pac 10 picks. I think the Ducks are going to be strong again this season and could really surprise if Costa is the real deal.
GL with the upcoming Football season Tommy.
No problem Crusher. The current price should remain in place until the start of the season.
T-Rider will that introductory prize be available all month long? I'm interested in purchasing your combo package but was wondering how long it would be at that lower price. Thanks and i may e-mail you too for more info.
Don't worry Mrtk31, i would never release a play without analysis to back it up. Thanks for the feedback.
If you provide reasons for your picks, you will be read often.
Thanks a lot Hellerud and Pedrinho. I look forward to discussing all the action with you this fall. Just one month away now.
Nice post Tommy, I can't wait for your picks, You will be 'The Man' this football season, GL
wish the best for ya bro!! Hope u sweep the boards this season! GL! and pregame made a great deccision!
Denver, I play around 3-4 on Saturday and 2-3 on Sunday and usually a Thursday and Monday night play. I like to trim the card down to 10 games each day and then cap those games even further to come up with my 2-4 best plays for the day. I will probably never have more than three plays on an NFL Sunday. I don't feel that gives me the best chance to win because I believe the lines on those games are so tight. That's the method that's worked best for me over the years, so it's what I stick to. Thanks for the interest.
How many picks a week you put out with your packages? I emailed you too Tommy.