Stephen Nover

Stay away from Greinke

2009-07-30T20:28:00Z

It's so tempting to lay less than $1.40 on the best pitcher in the American League, if not all of baseball.

No starter has an ERA lower than Zach Greinke's 2.08. His strikeout-to-walk ratio is a mind-boggling 153-to-28.

Yet Greinke continues to burn money for those unfortunate to wager on him.

The Kansas City Royals are 3-10 in Greinke's last 13 starts despite these great numbers. The Royals have been favored in every one of these games. The Royals lost seven times during this span as -$1.35 or higher favorites with Greinke on the hill.

Greinke has a 2.53 ERA in his past five starts - all Kansas City losses.
It takes a lot to be the worst team in the American League with the best pitcher. Congratulations Royals you've earned that dubious distinction.

The Royals enter the weekend tied for last in runs scored in the American League, rank 26th in batting average, 28th in on-base percentage and 24th in both slugging percentage and home runs.

Oh, yes, the Royals also have the third most errors in the American League and possess a terrible bullpen.

Please keep all this in mind the next time you're getting seduced by Greinke being a short favorite like I was on Wednesday.

Stephen's July 7 Free Play

2009-07-07T16:54:00Z

Yankees (Sabathia) at Twins (Baker) UNDER 9 -$1.25

Analysis: Look for CC Sabathia to bounce back from a rare poor performance. He's not pitching at hitter-friendly Yankee Stadium.

Sabathia has a 3.12 ERA in 27 starts pitching at the Metrodome. He has a 1.24 ERA in his last four starts versus the Twins.

Prior to his 8-4 loss to Seattle last Thursday, Sabathia was in a nice groove going 6-1 with a 2.82 ERA in his previous 10 outings.

This will be just the fourth time in 18 games the Twins will face a lefty.

After a bumpy start, Scott Baker has come on to go 4-0 with a 3.20 ERA in his last six starts for Minnesota. Baker is 2-0 with a 1.50 ERA in two career starts against the Yankees.

Both team's ace closers, Mariano Rivera and Joe Nathan, are rested.

The under has cashed in eight of Minnestoa's last nine games. The Yankees are 9-4-1 to the under in their last 14 road contests.

I'm on a 32-13 baseball hot streak. I have a 3-play package going today. It can be viewed here http://pregame.com/pregamepros/Bettors.aspx?CapperId=7746

Thanks and best of luck!

Stephen Nover's Free Wednesday Winner

2009-07-01T15:51:00Z

White Sox Sox (Contreas) +$1.10 at Indians (Sowers)

Analysis: Analysis: Why is Jeremy Sowers favored? Perhaps the better question is why is Jeremy Sowers even on a big-league roster?

I can answer the first question. Sowers is favored (although that line rapidly is coming down) because the oddsmaker made a mistake.

First off, the White Sox are hot. The Indians are not. Chicago has won four in a row. The White Sox are 11-4 in their last 15. They have captured 12 of their last 16 road contests.

The White Sox offense finally has picked up, averaging six runs in their last 15 games and batting .308 in their last 10 games.

Sowers is 2-5 this season with a 5.44 ERA. He is 0-4 with a 6.87 ERA lifetime mark against the White Sox.

The White Sox tore up a much, much better lefty last night scoring seven runs on 11 hits in three innings against Cliff Lee. They should have even greater success facing the southpaw Sowers, who relies on finesse and guile rather than talent. That may work against a team not swinging the bats well, but he shouldn't be effective here. He rarely is.

White Sox starter Jose Contreras has pitched much better since coming back from the minors to correct mechanical flaws. The oddsmaker isn't giving Contreras that respect, though. But Contreras has a 2.15 ERA and 0.78 WHIP in 29 1/3 innings since his return. He is 4-2 with a 3.34 ERA lifetime versus Cleveland.

Two of the Indians' biggest bats - Victory Martinez and Travis Hafner - are a combined six-for-49 versus Contreras with no extra base hits.

Cleveland has lost its last four games and six of its past seven. The Indians are 3-13 in their last 16 games. They have the worst record and manager in the American League.

The White Sox have a rested bullpen. The Indians' bullpen is one of the worst in baseball.

All my check marks go to the White Sox. It's a nice bonus to get them at this value price.

The Red Sox blowing a 10-1 lead last night cost me a winning day yesterday. But I'm still 19-8 on my last 27 selections. I have my strongest total of the week going today. It can be viewed here http://pregame.com/pregamepros/Bettors.aspx?CapperId=7746

Thanks and best of luck to everyone today.

Stephen Nover's Free Monday Play

2009-06-29T16:40:00Z

Dodgers -$1.10 (Wolf) hosting Rockies (Jimenez)

Analysis: The Rockies have lost eight of their last nine games to the Dodgers. Rockies starter Ubaldo Jimenez struggles versus the Dodgers. He's already lost three times to them this season with a fat 10.20 ERA, giving up 17 earned runs in 15 innings. The Dodgers' projected lineup tonight is batting .339 against him.

In nine career starts against the Dodgers, Jimenez has a 6.99 ERA. The Rockies are vulnerable in middle relief and closer Huston Street is unlikely to pitch having worked three straight games.

Colorado is 7-21 in Jimenez's last 28 road starts.

Dodgers starter Randy Wolf has been excellent at home if you exclude his last start at Dodger Stadium when he was feeling under the weather.

Discounting that outing, Wolf has allowed two earned runs in his previous four home starts spanning 24 innings. His strikeout-to-walk ratio during this time frame was 23-to-5.

The Dodgers are 10-2 the past 12 times Wolf has been a home favorite.

I'm on a 15-4 run the past five days on my baseball selections. I haven't been posting at PreGame lately, but I'll try to get back into the habit. I have a 3-Pack going today. It can be seen here http://pregame.com/pregamepros/Bettors.aspx?CapperId=7746

Thanks and best of luck.

Stephen Nover's Free Friday Play

2009-06-26T16:54:00Z

Red Sox (Beckett) -$1.18 at Braves (Jurrjens)

Analysis: I'm happy to see the marketplace get behind the Braves in this matchup, because I'll take Josh Beckett at this reduced lay price.

When he's on, Beckett is as good as any pitcher. Lately Beckett has been on winning six of his last seven decisions. He has a 1.44 ERA in his last six starts.

Beckett has been particularly strong versus the Braves. He shut them out on Saturday throwing a complete-game 5-hitter. All of Atlanta's hits were singles. Beckett struck out seven and didn't walk a batter.

This kind of domination against the Braves isn't something new for Beckett. He is 5-0 with a 0.45 ERA in his last six starts versus Atlanta.

The Red Sox should be up for this game, too, having been embarrassed by the lowly Nationals last night. Boston has lost back-to-back games just once during its past 22 games.

Right-hander Jair Jurrjens goes for Atlanta. He's solid, but the Red Sox just faced him on Sunday scoring scoring five runs off him in 6 1/3 innings.

Boston is 49-14 in its last 63 interleague games when facing a right-handed starter.

The Red Sox have won 16 of their last 22. Atlanta has dropped 18 of its past 29 games. The Red Sox have a winning road mark, while the Braves are 17-19 at home.

I'm 8-2 the past three days and have a 3-Pack going today. It can be viewed here http://pregame.com/pregamepros/Bettors.aspx?CapperId=7746

Thanks and best of luck today!

Stephen Nover Monday Free Play

2009-06-22T15:24:00Z

Cardinals -$1.10 (Wellemeyer) at Mets (Redding)

Analysis: I'm not a Todd Wellemeyer fan, but he rates a solid edge against an injury-riddled, bullpen-challenged Mets squad going with Tim Redding.

Wellemeyer is off a solid start in a victory against the Tigers. He has been decent against right-handed batters. They are batting .266 against him. Left-handed batters, though, are batting .346 with eight homers against him.

However, the Mets are missing their best left-handed sticks. Carlos Delgado is out. Switch-hitter Jose Reyes is out and I doubt that Carlos Beltran plays today because of his sore knee. The Cardinals also don't have any bullpen fatigue issues, like the Mets, because they were so easily able to handle the Royals during the weekend.

The Cardinals are 6-0 the last six times Wellemeyer has been a road underdog, if you can still catch St. Louis at a 'dog price.

Redding may be at the end of the line. He's allowed 23 runs and 16 walks in 33 innings. He wouldn't even be in New York's rotation if it weren't for injuries to John Maine and Oliver Perez.

The Mets are 1-5 in Redding's starts. Redding has a 6.27 ERA. The right-hander has a career 5.69 ERA versus St. Louis in 12 starts. The last time he defeated the Cardinals was 2004, when he was with Houston.

The slippage with Redding is evident when you look inside his numbers and see that his walks are up from last year, 3.2 to 4.4, and his strikeouts are down from 5.9 to 5.4. Another red flag is that Redding has gotten more fly ball outs than ground ball outs in every one of his starts.

Redding can expect no help from a bullpen that has a 5.48 ERA during the past 16 games and a 1-7 record this month.

The Cardinals are swinging hot bats, too, particularly the great Albert Pujols. They have scored 52 runs in their last seven games against right-handed starters.

Pujols has socked eight homers in his last 10 games. He has a lifetime .407 batting average against Redding in 27 at bats with a .704 slugging percentage mark.

Best of luck to everyone today!

Stephen Nover's Free Saturday Play

2009-06-20T15:14:00Z

Orioles +$1.30 (Bergesen) at Phillies (Happ)

Analysis: The Phillies aren't playing well enough to be this big of a favorite especially with young and largely untested J.A. Happ on the mound.

How bad has it been lately for the Phillies? They have lost their last four games by a total of 17 runs. They are 1-6 during their current home-stand with five of the defeats being by three runs or more. They have been terrible at home all season as evidenced by a 13-20 mark.

The Red Sox exposed Happ for the mediocre stuff he throws, scoring five runs on seven hits and six walks off him in just 5 2/3 innings. Happ surrendered three homers and threw 108 pitches. His 3.53 ERA is misleading because he has a high strand rate, which is partially due to his bullpen bailing him out.

Orioles starter Brad Bergesen is another young pitcher. He's 4-2 with a 3.79 ERA. But his ERA is misleading, too, except the opposite way. Bergesen is among the best in the league in ground ball-to fly ball ratio. Bergesen also has excellent control, walking 17 in 71 1/3 innings. He's 3-0 with a 1.69 ERA in his last four starts.

Bergesen is a sinker ball pitcher, the type of pitcher the Phillies can have trouble with especially missing Raul Ibanez.

Sure the Phillies are a better team than Baltimore. But right now the Phillies are at low ebb, have key injuries and are going against a hot, under-the-radar pitcher setting up a nice overlay in this spot.

I have my Game of the Week going today. I've been waiting patiently all week for the right spot and right price and the spot finally showed up. It can be viewed here http://pregame.com/pregamepros/Bettors.aspx?CapperId=7746

Thanks and best of luck!

Russell Martin has become Jason Kendall

2009-06-18T18:52:00Z

Milwaukee Brewers catcher Jason Kendall is the kind of hitter that you sometimes see in slow-pitch softball leagues. You know the weakest hitter in the lineup, who all the outfielders cheat way up for because he's got no chance of hitting one deep.

Kendall has hit six homers in six years, none this season. His slugging percentage is .276. He's one of my least favorite batters to watch, unless I'm fading the Brewers or have an under play.

Russell Martin used to be one of the best hitting catchers. In 2007, the Dodgers catcher batted .293 with 19 homers and 87 RBI's. Last year, Martin batted .280 with 13 homers and 69 RBI's.

This year it's hard to tell the difference between Kendall and Martin. They're both fast for catchers and are iron men behind the plate rarely sitting out.

But Martin is batting .236 with no homers. He has five hits in his last 43 at bats through Wednesday. His slugging percentage is .278. That territory is reserved for hitting dregs like Kendall.

Am I being too cynical to think Martin might have been a juicer and now he's off the stuff?

Stallworth sentencing and Joe Buck Show

2009-06-17T16:28:00Z

Let me get this right. Cleveland Browns wide receiver Donte Stallworth kills a pedestrian driving drunk in Miami and the only jail time he gets is 30 days.

Who was the judge, Eric Mangini?

I drive in the right turn lane for an extra block and get a $160 ticket and have to go to traffic school. I'd hate to think how much hard labor I'd be doing in prison if God forbid I ever had a DUI, let alone killed someone.

But hey Stallworth plays in the NFL. I'm just a lowly PreGame.com blogger.

At least Stallworth stopped, immediately called police and accepted full responsiblity. He didn't have a previous criminal record and he only was going 10 miles above the speed limit.

His blood-alcohol level was .126, though, well above Florida's .08 limit.

No, Stallworth doesn't belong in a Longest Yard remake running pass patterns with Rae Carruth and blocking for O.J. Simpson.

But he sure as hell should have drawn a sentence closer to the maximum of 15 years in prison for the crime than a mere month.

Speaking of criminal, did you catch Joe Buck's initial talk show on HBO?

To put in kindly, Buck is no Bob Costas when it comes to interviewing. And, of course, he never should have had Artie Lang on as a guest.

No Howard Stern-related character should be on a sports talk show that wants to take itself at least semi-serious.

Lang singlehanded ruined Buck's show and cast doubts if there even will be another show. Lang brought the show down to an immature, sophomoric while making Buck look terrible in the process.

Buck is a great sports announcer. But Lang exposed Buck as someone in over his head when the format is ad-lib, spontaneous talk. Buck is quick-witted. But he couldn't match the multiple insults Lang was hurling his way.

Some find Lang funny. If you think Tony Romo rhyming with homo is funny than Lang is your cup of tea.

Stephen Nover Tuesday Free Play

2009-06-16T16:33:00Z

Blue Jays (Romero) +$1.75 at Phillies (Hamels)

Analysis: The Phillies could be in a letdown spot following their intense home series with the Red Sox.

Phillies starter Cole Hamels is still striving for consistency this season. In two of his last three starts, he's allowed a combined 10 earned runs failing to reach the seventh inning.

The Blue Jays have scored a combined 23 runs the past four times they've faced a southpaw starter.

The Blue Jays also are starting a lefty - Ricky Romero. The Phillies' top bats are left-handed. They've never seen Romero.

Romero has given up four earned runs in his last two starts spanning 13 1/3 innings. He's allowed 10 hits and struck out 11 during this span. He's off a sharp performance versus Texas.

I am 8-1 on my last 3-Packs and have a big 3-Pack going today, featuring another underdog and two strong totals plays. It can be viewed here http://pregame.com/pregamepros/Bettors.aspx?CapperId=7746

Thanks and best of luck!

Stephen Nover Free Wednesday Play

2009-06-10T16:41:00Z

Red Sox -$1.20 (Wakefield) hosting Yankees (Wang)

Analysis: The Yankees can't beat Boston this season. They are 0-6 versus the Red Sox.

Don't look for anything to change in this matchup.

Right now Chien-Ming Wang could be the most brutal pitcher in the majors. He is 0-3 with a 14.46 ERA. Opponents are batting .443 against him. Wang recently came off the DL and is trying to regain his previous form. He's not there yet. This is almost a sacrifice game for New York. Wang's career ERA at Fenway Park is 5.11.

The Yankees are still without two of their injured key setup relievers, Brian Bruney and Damaso Marte. Their bullpen ERA is a fat 4.88. Boston, by contrast, has the best bullpen ERA in baseball at at 2.76.

The Red Sox have the versatile offense to take advantage. The Yankees are the one team David Ortiz is hitting against.

Veteran knuckleballer Tim Wakefield is off a good start. He's 4-0 with a 3.00 ERA in four starts at Fenway this season.

I have a three-pack available for purchase containting my three strongest plays. I went 3-0 yesterday on my baseball selections, nailing two 'dogs and the small favorite Twins. It can be viewed here: http://pregame.com/pregamepros/Bettors.aspx?CapperId=7746

Thanks and best of luck to everyone today.

Stephen Nover's Monday Free Play

2009-06-08T16:05:00Z

Pirates (Duke) at Braves (Kawakami) UNDER 8 1/2

Analysis: Zack Duke doesn't get much respect, but the Pittsburgh lefty has been one of the most consistent pitchers in baseball this season.

Yes, I know that's hard to believe. But the numbers don't lie. Duke is 6-4 pitching for a terrible team with a 2.62 ERA. In 79 innings, he's allowed 71 hits and just 18 walks and four homers. The under has cashed in six of his last seven starts.

In his last start, Duke out-dueled the great Johan Santana. Duke is 3-1 with a 2.43 ERA in his last five starts.

The Braves scored eight runs on Sunday. Prior to that, though, they had gone 22 consecutive scoreless innings. The Braves achieved their Sunday outburst mainly against Manny Parra, who has allowed 26 earned runs in his last 19 2/3 innings.

Braves starter Kenshin Kawakami hasn't allowed more than three earned runs in his last six starts. He has a 1.50 ERA in his last two home starts against the Cubs and Blue Jays, striking out nine and walking only one in 15 innings.

Kawakami shouldn't have problems facing the weak-hitting Pirates.

Best of luck to everyone today.

Stephen Nover Free Friday Play

2009-06-05T16:32:00Z

Cubs -$1.25 (Zambrano) at Reds (Owings)

Analysis: Carlos Zambrano is back from suspension and raring to go as he looks to pick up his 100th career win. I see that happening in this matchup.

Zambrano has a very strong history against the Reds, particularly at Great American Ballpark. Zambrano is 8-2 with a 2.61 ERA when pitching in Cincinnati. He's held the Reds scoreless for the last 22 1/3 innings at Great American Ballpark.

The Reds' lineup is weak right now and vulnerable to a power right-hander like Zambrano minus Joey Votto and with Jay Bruce in an 0-for-17 slump.

The flip side of this handicap is a fade on Reds starter Micah Owings. The guy is a good athlete and one of the best-hitting pitchers. But let's face facts, Owings isn't a very good pitcher. His career numbers are 17-23 with a 5.02 ERA.

Owings isn't in good form either. He's 0-2 with an 8.56 ERA in his last three starts. Owings is particularly vulnerable at hitter-friendly Great American Ballpark being a high ball, flyball type pitcher.

One of the keys to the Cubs' offense is Derek Lee. His bat has come alive. He's batting .392 in his last 14 games.

The price isn't too high to back the better team with the much better starting pitcher.

I have turned a profit on my last couple of 3-Packs and have one going today. It can be viewed here: http://pregame.com/pregamepros/Bettors.aspx?CapperId=7746

Thanks and best of luck!

Stephen Nover's Free Wednesday Play

2009-06-03T16:57:00Z

Nationals -$1.30 (Jordan) hosting Giants (Johnson)

Analysis: Not often will I back the Washington Nationals when they are favored.

This is one of those rare exceptions.

No doubt the Nationals are terrible. That point isn't being argued. But the Giants are truly bad when they are on the road with a 7-16 away mark. That's the second-fewest road wins in the big leagues.

San Francisco ranks last in the majors in homers and second-from-the-bottom in runs scored. The Nationals rate among the top 12 in runs, batting average and homers.

This is a rare instance where the Nationals are in the spotlight. That's because Randy Johnson is going for his 300th victory. Opponents are extra motivated not to let Johnson reach his milestone against them, especially when they are playing at home such as the Nationals are here.

The Giants are facing plenty of distractions. Not only is Johnson going for No. 300, but the team was scheduled to visit the White House this morning. Their thoughts are on Barack Obama not Jordan Zimmerman.

Zimmerman is a rookie, but he's the Nationals' best pitcher. His ERA isn't good, but he has tremendous potential. The right-hander has a 47-to-14 strikeout-to-walk ratio.

Beating him isn't going to be easy for the Giants with their anemic offense. The Giants have lost their last five aways games against a right-handed pitcher.

The Nationals' confidence is up after they ended their six-game losing streak last night against the Giants and ace Tim Lincecum. Washington is averaging 7.5 runs in four games against the Giants this season.

Johnson is 45. He still can be effective - when pitching in a pitcher's park. He's 0-2 with an 8.50 ERA in four road outings this season. The Nationals have added another big right-handed bat to go against Johnson with Elijah Dukes now off the DL.

I'm 8-4 on my baseball selections the past four days. My 3-Pack turned a profit last night and I have another strong 3-Pack going today. It can be viewed here: http://pregame.com/pregamepros/Bettors.aspx?CapperId=7746

Thanks and best of luck!

Stephen Nover Free Saturday Play

2009-05-30T16:01:00Z

Tigers (Verlander)-Orioles (Guthrie) UNDER 9 (-$1.20)

Analysis: Who's the hottest pitcher in baseball right now? You can't be faulted for automatically saying Zack Greinke. But you can also argue for Justin Verlander.

Verlander is 5-0 with a 0.85 ERA in his last six starts. His strikeout-to-hit count is 60-to-24 during this time frame. He's only allowed 10 walks during this span. Verlander has a strong track record against Baltimore, too. In four starts versus the Orioles, he's 3-0 with a 1.29 ERA. Detroit's key bullpen arms are rested.

The key to making this under work, though, is Baltimore starter, Jeremy Guthrie. He's 4-4 with a 4.90 ERA. On the surface, this isn't very impressive. But keep in mind, Guthrie has pitched against teams in the toughest division, the AL East. He has faced very strong offenses going against the Yankees three times, the Blue Jays twice while also facing the Red Sox, Rays, Rangers and White Sox.

Guthrie is off a confidence-building victory against Toronto. He is 3-2 with a 3.75 ERA at home. The Tigers have scored three or fewer runs in five of their last seven games. Nobody in the Detroit lineup has more than five career at-bats against Guthrie.

I can see Guthrie matching Verlander in a well-pitched game that goes under this total.

Best of luck to everyone today.