Stephen Nover's Wednesday Free Play

Reds -$1.45 (Arroyo) hosting Astros (Paulino)

Analysis: The marketplace has pushed this game up, backing the Reds. At first I was leery of laying this price with Bronson Arroyo on the hill for Cincinnati.

But the marketplace has this right. This isn't too high of a price to fade the fading Astros and their horrendous, overmatched manager Cecil Cooper.

The surging Reds are just 1 1/2 games out of first place in the NL Central Division. They are playing their best ball and their confidence level is up, while the Astros have lost six in a row.

Wandy Rodriguez couldn't win here on Monday. Roy Oswalt couldn't win on Tuesday. So what makes anybody think Felipe Paulino can win tonight?

Cooper that's who. The idiot manager must not fully comprehend that Paulino is struggling big-time. Since returning to Houston's rotation, the youngster has allowed 11 earned runs in 9 1/3 innings in his last two starts. His ERA for this month is 13.14.

Pitching in this hitter-friendly park isn't going to help young Paulino's confidence either. The Astros' bullpen has been a disaster, particularly in middle relief. Closer Jose Valverde remains out.

The Astros catch one break in that Brandon Phillips isn't expected to start until the weekend. But the star second baseman is available to pinch-hit.

Another key to the handicap is Arroyo. Oddsmakers have trouble figuring him out. Is he good or bad? His ERA is 5.79, which indicates bad.

But a closer look reveals Arroyo to be good. After the All-Star break last season he went 8-4 with a 3.47 ERA.

This season he's had two disastrous performances. These came against Atlanta (nine runs in 5 2/3 innings) and Milwaukee (nine runs in one inning). However, in his other seven starts he is 6-1 with a 3.28 ERA.

The Reds are 13-4 when favored during Arroyo's last 17 home starts.

 

So far this week I'm 2-for-2 on my free picks having won Monday on the Tigers and yesterday on the Indians.

 

I've won four of my last five NBA games and have the strong play going tonight in Game 5 of the Nuggets-Lakers series. It can be viewed here along with my packages: http://pregame.com/pregamepros/Bettors.aspx?CapperId=7746

 

Thanks and best of luck to everyone today.