Braves (Reyes) +$1.65 at Phillies (Hamels)

Analysis: Anyong fearing Cole Hamels right now? I'm not. The oddsmaker has installed the Phillies as a big favorite because of the reputations of Hamels and Braves starter Jo-Jo Reyes. Both reputations, though, are very misleading right now.

Hamels is 0-2 with a 7.27 ERA this season. He's given up 27 hits and struck out 15, while allowing five homers in only 17 2/3 innings. Clearly he is out of sync becasue of injuries. He last pitched on April 28. He has been dealing with elbow, shoulder and ankle injuries.

The Braves are expected to get back All-Star catcher Brian McCann from the DL tonight. Chipper Jones rested on Thursday, so he'll be ready to go. Atlanta has won five of its last six road games. The Braves have won four of the past five times in Philadelphia.

People are going to be leery about backing the Braves here because of Reyes. But let's look closer at the young southpaw. He was called up two years ago after only six Triple A starts at just 22 years old. He wasn't ready at that stage and he finished with a 6.21 ERA.

Reyes was called up to the big leagues again last year when John Smoltz was hurt. He went 3-11 with a 5.81 ERA. This season he's 0-1 with a 5.00 ERA. So where is the improvement? 

Look inside the numbers. Reyes has given up 16 hits in 18 innings. He has a two-to-one strikeout-to-walk ratio with a ratio of 31 ground ball outs to 10 fly ball outs. He's surrendered just one home run. Another stat to chart his improvement is he's averaging 14.6 pitches per inning. Last year, he was below that level only three times in 22 starts. 

Keep in mind, too, the Braves have not given Reyes much offensive support scoring just seven runs in his three starts. Reyes can neutralize the tough Philadelphia left-handed power bats of Ryan Howard, Chase Utley and Raul Ibanez.

The rest of my Friday plays and packages can be viewed here http://pregame.com/pregamepros/Bettors.aspx?CapperId=7746

I won my NBA Play of the Month last night with the over in the Hawks-Cavaliers game. I have two strong plays going in the two playoff games tonight along with a baseball play.

Thanks and best of luck!