Since becoming more familiar and involved with the Pregame.com forum, I've noticed and been impressed with a number of handicappers here.
I respect - win or lose - a good writeup analyzing why a handiapper likes a particular side or total. I think a pick without a writeup is worthless.
This happens at most sports gaming-related forums. Some guy with a fake name will just list his pick without any reason or analysis. What good is that, I don't care what he says his record is. I think it's crazy to just blindly play somebody's pick without knowing the thinking.
Here's an idea for RJ and PreGame: Have a social get together in Las Vegas once or twice a year for the handicappers and posters. That way everyone can meet, network and exchange ideas and handicapping methods. It can build up goodwill and comraderie.
HIGH compliment coming from Stephen Nover!
We're all still waiting for that big Pregame party in Vegas RJ!
" I think a pick without a writeup is worthless. " RJ do you back that statement .
The value of analysis is clear: 1) helps the reader understand the level of insight a capper has; 2) provides tidbits the reader can use in their own handicapping even he doesn't follow the pick. Yet, if you KNOW the capper is a winner (by following him over the long-term), the pick itself even without analysis is valuable.
I like the Yet if you know part because it's obvious VR doesn't post analysis and i had no problem about 2 months back betting 4 dimes on a GOM and i wrote a post about what a dollar and VR have in common .Like i told him then i would reinvest some of that money with him from time to time just playing the best bets.The more money the better . I don't just blind blind bet them either if i bought the pick and didn't like the pick chalk up the 20 bucks and move on .Only IDIOTS blind bet games and in the long term they will find a way to be a loser following someone or not .Writeups are overrated IMO , they give confidence to those who lack it .WINNING $$ is the bottom line don't forget that .If a writeup is suposed to show strength then does it show the same weakness when the pick loses .I can look at his best bet and then do my own analysis to determine value .
You know what i think has alot more weight in determining how confident you are . Post your bet ticket with how much money you have riding on the game . That's reality. And that is the ultimate sign of strength. How much money do you yourself have on the game .
Interesting points, Loosh. One thing, we try not to use words like "idiots" around here - such words only limit contribution. I agree that a hybrid approach is very valid (using experts and your own opinion) - but I also think handicapping 100% yourself is valid - as is 100% follow (which is what I actually do). In fact, unless you are committed to being a handicapper, adding your opinion to the experts can be dangerous. Lastly, Vegas Runner has spent many hundreds of hours proving his quality - yet he could have done that more quickly with analysis on every game. But fact is, we would of arrived at the same place, which is the general belief that VR is an expert.
Sorry about the idiot reference and honestly i wan't talking about anyone here as we have some sharp fellas in the forums . Just the average loser i was speaking of but sorry for that . And i hope you know i was complimenting VR not at all bashing for no analysis . He was just a good example as he is well respected for good reason . But still in a black and white approach Mr. nover states that a pick without a write up is worthless which i disagree with ..That's all .The true sign of strength again would be to post your bet ticket and then we would really see what some were about . It lends to the saying " put your money where your mouth is " Nonetheless i could be entirely wrong that's just the way i feel.
I agree that winning picks without analysis are VERY valuable - it's just without analysis it takes much longer to determine if they are quality picks or not. I don't think big betting is a sign of quality, but rather big winning. Loosh, I think you have much to add at Pregame.com!
Personally I would never be influenced by someone's pick unless I knew the thinking behind it.
But I understand the point that if a certain handicapper has achieved success and credibility than analysis isn't needed.
In no way, was this blog meant to rip VR or any particular handicapper. I'm just speaking in general terms.
VR is one handicapper I've become familiar with through working with him on PreGame podcats. He's' extremely knowleagable, hard-working and well-connected. He's an excellent handicapper, which his record shows.
He's on the firing line where he's trying to release plays where time is of the essence. That happens to me sometimes, especially during day college basketball games. I've put out college packages with no writeups just because of the time factor.
I just think if someone is trying to establish himself or make a reputation, they need to explain their reasoning.
Mr. Nover i respect your opinion even though i disagree . again just using VR for reference not making it about him ,but if i bet everyone of his best bets and that can add another 10-20 units to what i make already why not . If your best bets won me another 10 untis why not . Let's say i win 100 units a year for the sake of this argument at a dime a unit . And i can add 20 from VR best bets and 15 from you then why would't i do that . Or just add marco's pittsburgh plays and pick up another 10 . You see it's very hard to be wealthy in this world just doing 1 thing .To be wealthy off just 1 venture you have to be not great but brilliant . But if you were good to great at 3or 4 things then were talking .so if i can make 100 a year myself and then add what i make from poker and what VR best bets make me and marco's pittsburgh teams . Now were talking about a whole other income . I'm in this to make real money and i feel diversity like alot of things is good only if you know how to diversify.
Sounds like a solid money strategy for you loosh.
My pet peeve about some posting forums, not necessarily PreGame, is sifting through endless picks by anonymous posters without any reason behind them.
I wish posting forum handicapping sections could be divided into picks with analysis and those just listing the pick.
I pride myself on handicapping certain sports and certain conferences. However, I lack reliable sources and good information on certain small conferences. I need additional help in these and was hoping to find it in the forums. Rarely am I satisfied, but that's just me.
Kudos to anyone who has beaten the Sun Belt, MAC and West Coast Conference this season. Those conferences have brutalized me.
hey nover, lets get off the pot here for a minute huh! i dont think u've been around long enough to know that there are a lot of very good cappers here that post without write ups, and to write a post like this is taking away from them. theres no analyis to my games and ive made it clear from the start that my spread is straight numbers based on team strength, strength of opponents, offensive and defensive scores, thats it, hence the title "by the numbers" no trends, hm. rd. win loss records, injuries ect. just simple numbers.
during the football season i did quite well but this basketball season has been a different story and ive made that known and the reads i get reflect that very fact.
iam not asking anyone to bet my picks iam just telling u who my plays will be but before i make my bet i like to go over each post to see if anybody likes what i like
and if i respect that handicappers judgement then weather he has a write up or not then its nice to know that we agree and i can feel confident that this person takes their handicaping very seriously and has put a respectable amount of time and effort into their selections. .i dont need to see a write up cause for the most part i know these guys work hard at putting as much perspective into thier picks as they can before putting their money where their mouth is. and as well as far as pasting my bet ticket thats personal. thats for me to know and not anybody else.
we had a couple of whistle dicks on here a short while back said oh iam betting thousands, we all knew it was crap.
i forgot who it was but recently he hit a 6 team parlay and had i thnk $200 on it, another guy had i think his biggest bet of the season for 5 grand. u kidd'n? we know these guys, why shouldnt we believe em? we all ate it up with a fork and spoon and loved it.. most guys will put a unit size on their plays not the amount size. personally its none of my bussiness how much u bet. i really dont care how much anybody bets. a $1000 bet to u could hold just as much impact as a $50 bet to someone else. win lose or draw, u put out an honest pick, thats all that matters
Thanks Free for taking the time to explain the other side of this argument.
maybe i got a little carried away but for the most part its ok. writeups are great, i read em all thru. ive added bets and taken bets off due to writeups having pertinant information that i had no knowledge of. when i see a writeup that goes against my best bet i read it carefully.
during football someone was making their biggest bet of the season against kentucky. this mans writeup made all the sense in the world and i could see why he was this convinced to bet his team, but kentucky had one of my bset numbers for that day and i was sold em. and ky won as the dog. i made money but it could have went the other way.