Have you noticed that NBA betting lines, normally the tighest in any sport, are softer this season?
I have. A number of professional handicappers, myself included, are having our best NBA season ever. I'm hitting 60 percent since December. Not to jinx myself, but the best I've ever done in an NBA season is slightly less than 57 percent. I find it the toughest sport to beat.
Some of this stems from picking off soft overnight numbers. But a big factor has been the absence of wise guys playing the sport.
Some of the wise guy syndicates are fully concentrating on college basketball and saving their bankroll for baseball. The result has been obvious plays are cashing more because the line value hasn't been adjusted.
What's made the NBA so hard is that you almost always pay a premimum to get the right side, for example fading a team playing their fifth road game in seven days. Now the line in some of these cases doesn't seem so unfair.
The flip side of this is that baseball season could be very tough because the wise guys will be playing baseball. Recreational betting on baseball figures to be down because ridiculous laws have made it much tougher to send money and fund Internet accounts .
Bookies know that most of their baseball handle is going to come from sharps so the lines are going to be extra tight.
Were you disappointed that no big trades happened on the final day of the NBA trade deadline?
It seems nearly every season the media comes up with all kinds of big trade rumors. Then the only guys that get dealt are Tim Thomas and Larry Hughes.
On an earlier blog I asked why Tim Thomas is in the NBA. My second Tim Thomas question is, is there any team Tim Thomas hasn't played on?
I was really hoping Portland could get Richard Jefferson, for Outlaw, Sergio & LaFrentz expiring contract.....Portland could of used Jefferson's experience and toughness...and not have to part wth Roy or Aldridge to get him.....oh well, I guess Pritchard has more than deserved what he didn't do.....as his track record speaks for itself.....Very nice BLOG Steven & Tim Thomas is the Reggie Sanders of the NBA for sure...
Thanks GoodFella and congrats to you on your rise as a handicapper.
The Bucks weren't going to move Jefferson because they have a legitimate playoff shot even with all their injuries. He's a damn fine two-way player.
At least Reggie Sanders was good at one-time. He was a Rotisserie player I would target. I can't say the same for Tim Thomas. He shouldn't be in the NBA. He's a selfish gunner who doesn't play defense.
Interesting comments Stephen. I've noticed that NBA lines seem to be much softer as well. It'll be interesting to see how far into the 2H of the season this lasts.
I think it's going to last Dynomite because the wise guys aren't going to get involved until maybe playoff time.
That's tough for me to comprehend, as it's like chum in the open water; Sharks are going to sniff it out and attack. Nevertheless, it's a very interesting scenario, and I'll be very anxious to see how it spills over into MLB.
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THERE ARE ALOT OF BAD TEAMS OUT THERE PERIOD !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! KEEP MAKING THE $$$$$$$$$$$$$$$ G L !
Steve...you are 100% correct...I am fortunate enough to receive ALL of the "Steam" from 4 different Outfits which do Basketball...and of the 4, Only "1" of them are even betting the NBA...And when they do, it's simply based on an injury, or a Total...Which is why I believe so many bettors are doing much better in the NBA this year, than in the past...
You are also correct that many are saving that BR for MLB which is right around the corner because even though they have always been able to beat the books in College Baskets...It's nothing in comparison to how well they do in MLB...Which is evident by the limits, and books willing to book sharp work...
Finally, this is a perfect time for bettors to try and zero in on the NBA and take full advantage of the upcoming "Soft Lines"...Because with the Conference Tourney's and then the Madness coming...all the focus will be on College Ball, especially since the oddsmakers can relax knowing their clients (the books) aren't going to get hit with much NBA "Steam"...
Great stuff as always Steven...and continue kicking ass like you have been...VR
Outstanding blog Mr. Nover - keep up the great work.
Thanks VR and Matty. Appreciate it.
Right back at you with your outstanding handicapping.
It has taken oddsmakers a long time to adjust lines for Phoenix and Detroit, and I don't feel that they adjusted them enough yet for Oklahoma City. Although that gravy train may be running out soon.
As far as trades go, I think the Magic picking up Alston was outstanding.
Ehhh...I don't think Alston is that great. He's nothing compared to Nelson.
Nice blog. Thank you Steven.