Betting Props with Success from a Pregame Pro

No, this isn't the real Vegas Prop King

This came up on the Forums recently, as I believe it was DenverMoney who asked what type of information people look at before betting props.  I'd like to start this conversation by saying I have struggled with props lately but have certainly enjoyed success in the past as most of you know.  I have discovered that the bigger the game, the easier it is to win when betting on a particular player's performance.  That might explain why I have excelled during the playoffs and had a tougher time during the regular season.

In the NBA, I generally look at home/road statistical splits for players along with how they have performed against their opponent during their career.  It's also important not to weigh the career numbers too heavily since the Boston Celtics were obviously not the same team a couple years ago before Ray Allen and Kevin Garnett got there.

Of course NFL games get increasingly important as the season goes on, with prime-time games on Sunday and Monday nights (and now Thursday) definitely the featured events.   But certain players get up for these types of games more than others while others clearly struggle (i.e. Bills QB Trent Edwards against the Browns). 

Football props can be handicapped similar to the games themselves, by studying each team's game plan and how they are going to attack the opposition.  If a top passing team is going up against the worst secondary in the league, you can pretty much assume there will be a lot of passing yards involved.  The lines will generally reflect that situation, but what I do beforehand is make the line myself on the player and then judge whether or not there is any value on the OVER or UNDER with the real numbers.

Stats are the biggest factor for me when betting props and really the only thing I look at.  One of the best props I have ever seen posted on the Forums came from Jeff Bonds a couple years ago and involved former Ohio State QB Troy Smith going OVER 16 pass completions.  Smith completed nine passes on the first drive, and Bonds cashed this prop by halftime.  I watched this game with him at Green Valley Ranch, and there's nothing quite like knowing you can enjoy the rest of the game following an easy winner.

Since I'm an action junkie and simply love having money riding on something in virtually every big TV game, I have found prop bets to be a very fun way to add to my passion of watching sports.  No matter whether I'm hot or cold with my other bets, I always seem to be cashing some type of ticket and getting money back in my pocket somehow.

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