NBA TRADE ANALYSIS: What Iverson for Billups REALLY means

I was actually quite surprised when Johnny Detroit sent me an IM this morning when I got into the office asking me what I thought of Allen Iverson with the Pistons.  AI in Motown?  One of the NBA's ultimate bad boys?  I'm still not sure what to make of it.

What I can tell you is that Chauncey Billups was the motor in Motor City when he was with the Pistons, and the team tended to go as he went, which is both a good and bad thing.  Billups was reborn in Detroit after GM Joe Dumars took a chance on him and head coach Larry Brown molded him into an All-Star point guard.  He came up for his contract extension a couple years back, and the Pistons chose to re-sign him.  Why?

Maybe to keep him from going to the Cleveland Cavaliers, who had just beaten the Pistons in the 2007 Eastern Conference Finals?  The Cavs were then humiliated by the San Antonio Spurs in the NBA Finals, and LeBron James was viewed as missing that one additional complementary player who could help him earn a title.  He still is in my opinion, though Cleveland is trying to make things work with Mo Williams.

Anyway, the Pistons reportedly were going after Denver's Carmelo Anthony in the offseason and now have Iverson.  Go figure.  They did unload a couple hefty contracts in Billups and Antonio McDyess, which frees things up to pay some of their younger players (i.e. Rodney Stuckey) and/or make a run at LeBron or other free agents after this  season.  Iverson is essentially a rent-a-player this year, which means the Pistons are simply giving up on Billups, forgetting the past and looking forward to the future.

I like this deal for Denver (though some disagree) because it provides the Nuggets with the point guard they have been sorely lacking since they dealt Andre Miller to the 76ers for Iverson.  Billups is a Denver native and should match up well with most of the point guards in the Western Conference.  Scoring also shouldn't be a problem for Denver because J.R. Smith will likely see his minutes increase and could end up in the starting lineup alongside Billups.

AI will end up going down in NBA history as one of the best players under 6-foot (trust me, he's no taller than 5-10) to ever suit up.  However, the truth is he is no more than a role player at this stage of his career and probably reminds Dumars of former teammate Vinnie "Microwave" Johnson.  Iverson was a freshman at Georgetown when I was a senior at Syracuse, and I never saw a player make such an impact at such an early age.

That being said, I find it ironic that both he and Stephon Marbury were supposed to be the next great point guards following Magic Johnson and John Stockton and instead both find themselves running out of gas at the finish line without many accomplishments other than individual honors.  Point guards are supposed to be the true team players who are anything but selfish, but neither of those players fit the bill.  At least Chauncey will be bringing some NBA title experience with him to Denver the second time around.

Following are some interesting projections from Accuscore...

How will Detroit do without "Mr. Bigshot"?

In Denver, Allen Iverson was not able to get the Nuggets past the first round of the playoffs, but he did become a very efficient combo guard significantly increasing his field-goal percentage from 40-42 percent in Philadelphia to 45 percent while sharing the ball with seven assists per game. However, Iverson's defense is sub-par. He averages a lot of steals, but playing passing lanes is just one part of playing defense. Pistons GM, Joe Dumars, was one of the greatest SG defenders in history, but he averaged under one steal per game in his career.

The question is, is Iverson's scoring worth more to Detroit than Chauncey Billups' superior 3-point percentage, free-throw percentage and individual defense?

Based on 10,000 season simulations the Pistons are doing worse with Allen Iverson. The big reason is the drop-off in 3-point percentage and increased turnovers. Iverson and Rodney Stuckey are both low 3-point percentage shooters. They also are forecasted to average five turnovers between them. The pre-trade combo of Stuckey and Billups was forecasted for 30 percent fewer turnovers per game. Billups is also a superior free-throw shooter. Even though Iverson is a very good 80 percent free-throw shooter, he is not as clutch closing out a game like Billups.

Can Chauncey Billups get the Nuggets into the playoffs? Get them past the first round?

After being a dominant one-man show in Philadelphia, no one doubted if Allen Iverson was a star player. Billups is a lot better than the young PG shooting 36 percent for Denver in 1998-2000, but there may be some questions whether Billups' career was significantly boosted by playing with a number of great, unselfish players like Kevin Garnett in Minnesota and all the great Pistons in Detroit. Billups elevated his teammates' play and his teammates elevated his play. Can Billups be an All-Star playing with players with less than stellar reputations in terms of being unselfish?

The three-game decline by the Pistons is a three-game boost to the Nuggets. The combo of Billups and JR Smith after the trade combine for 4.2 turnovers, down slightly from the 4.5 that Smith and Iverson were forecasted for.

With Billups, Denver has a superior 3-point shooting backcourt. Iverson may average more assists but he does it while dominating the ball. Billups has a far higher assist rate which is defined by how many assists a player has per "touch". Billups' 3-point shooting and assist-to-turnover efficiency makes Denver a better team in simulations.

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