Analysis: I think they were right the first time opening this at 8. IMO the reason this came off 8 in the first place is that the weather isn't going to be sunny, hot, with wind blowing out. More like unsettled with showers, perhaps. I remember a game that had delays in Cincinnati involving the Pirates that the two teams combined for a ton of jacks and runs. Probably not real relevant, and don't see major delays, but what I do see is two starting pitchers I have little respect for. Morton has been great (for him) since coming back, even throwing a one-hitter at the Cardinals (who weren't hitting at the time). When he's on, he's really on, and then there's the "other" Charlie Morton. The one that Drew Stubbs is hitting .360 with a HR in 25 at bats. Morneau may play, we'll see. C-Gon and Tulo in the lineup, I've got to figure the Rockies get their half. Pirates pen w/o Grilli has been horrible, and Morton at most is good for 7 innings. Anderson has a WHIP of 1.70 and just isn't going to pitch more than 6 innings. Another one like Morton in that he can be very good or very bad, but either way it brings in the Rockies bullpen as well, which was also used a lot last night and sucked even without the extra work. Tim Welke behind the plate is another reason we'll get a good number here. He's only 2-9 to the over in the NL this season. Reverse-regression coming, but if you look at who he's called (Kershaw, Strasburg, Hamels (2), Zimmerman, Ross (2), that's almost to be expected. He's had a Rays game score 11 in the Trop, so I'm not overly concerned here, not after last night. And he just did a Pirates game not long ago, so they've got the "new" book on him, and I do expect the Pirates to win, something to the tune of about 7-3.
Here's my thoughts on the other games. A little annoyed I didn't lay the chalk with the easy winner in New York, and told some clients I felt both them and Toronto were winners. Anyhow:
I do not like Joe Kelly, but the Dodgers really shouldn't be -145 or whatever to the Cardinals on the road. That's a bit much, so I would lean St. Louis RL there, but in fact I think it goes over. Greinke can be had, IMO, and the line is a tad low. Grienke can HIT, so I actually like that play, but would buy it to 7 like last night.
I thought I'd try to build a case for Garza here, but a few of the Nationals have actually hammered him. And of course the Brewers haven't seen Roarke, so Washington may well be the right side, perhaps F5 since Roarke may fare well early. I do think this game goes over as well, but later rather than sooner. Would be really cool to in-game bet this over after a few scoreless innings.
I keep waiting for a chance to fade Hudson, and it certainly looks like that's where the sharper money may be. My only thought as to why is that the Fish saw a ton of him when he was with Atlanta. Obviously Miami's pen is no in great shape, so I'm not sure that the value still doesn't like with SF at reasonable price.
IMO Hamels and the Phillies are favored for a good reason. They always play Atlanta tough in Turner Field, especially. That'd be one of those "choke on it" bets but probably the right side.
No chance whatsoever of taking Wade Miley at home, where he is horrible, at -150 against Wood. I don't care if Trumbo IS back. Cubs RL, especially with the total coming down. I don't really agree with the total coming down, either, since both pitchers can hit and it's obviously a hitters' park.
Tough game in San Diego, but if you made me I would have to take the Mets. Kennedy being dabbled as potential trade bait could have an effect either way, Gee has been solid, and you just have to like the Mets lineup better. Padres pen weakened w/o Street.
Max has been a freak, but not someone I can lay -170 with against a team that can hit and is confident right now. McAllister can surprise at times. If I had to bet this game, I could see taking the Tigers ML and the Indians RL trying to be cool, because I do think this game is closer than people think.
Having watched Duffy pitch a number of times, I'm just not ready to back him against a team like Boston that can be patient and get his pitch count up. I am not in agreement with the move to the Royals, especially if it come down to bullpens.
Price has been hot and it seems as though the Rays have indeed turned a corner. But, to take a home team RL at only -125 or so is not the worst bet you can make, especially if Hughes is going to keep the ball in the park.
I am in total agreement with the move to the Astros. I have no respect for Noesi, but since the Astros haven't seen much of him, F5 under might work here. Kuechel keeps the ball down, in the park, and the White Sox have a little more trouble w/LHP anyway, and Houston's pen is probably better.
The A's game is probably one I want nothing to do with. Hammel spent two years, recently, in Baltimore, so there's that angle for sure (which favors Hammel) but Chen is quite capable, especially on the road in the big park. If you made me I would take the Orioles RL.